A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes With Wind, Water, and Sunlight

Transcription

1 A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes With Wind, Water, and Sunlight Mark Z. Jacobson Atmosphere/Energy Program Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University Thanks to Mark Delucchi (coauthor), Cristina Archer, Elaine Hart, Mike Dvorak, Eric Stoutenburg, Bethany Corcoran, John Ten Hoeve, Eena Sta. Maria, Diana Ginnebaugh WREC World Renewable Energy Forum Denver, Colorado, May 14, 212

2 Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (29) Electric Power Vehicles Recommended Wind, Water, Sun (WWS) 1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric 3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell 5. PV 6. Wave 7. Hydroelectricity Not Recommended Nuclear Coal-CCS Natural gas, CNG Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanol Soy, algae biodiesel Biomass for electricity

3 Why Not Nuclear? 9-25 times more pollution per kwh than wind from mining & refining uranium and from using fossil fuels for electricity during years to permit (6-1 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted) Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation Unresolved waste issues

4 Why Not Clean Coal (With Carbon Capture)? 5 times more CO 2 emissions per kwh than wind 15 times more air pollutant emissions per kwh than wind Requires 25% more energy, thus 25% more coal mining and transport and traditional pollution than normal coal.

5 Why Not Natural Gas? 5-7 times more CO 2 and air pollution emissions per kwh than wind Fracking causes land and water supply degradation Methane leaks a leading cause of Arctic ice loss over next 2 years

6 Why Not Ethanol? Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline Corn E85: 9-2% of CO 2 emissions as gasoline Cellulosic E85: 5-15% of CO 2 emissions as gasoline Wind-BEVs: <1% of CO 2 emissions as gasoline Enormous land use and water requirements

7 End Use Power Demand For All Purposes World U.S TW 2.5 TW 23 with current fuels 16.9 TW 2.83 TW 23 converting all energy to wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/h

8 Number of Plants or Devices to Power World Technology Percent Supply 23 Number 5-MW wind turbines 5% 3.8 mill. (.8% in place).75-mw wave devices 1 72, 1-MW geothermal plants (1.7% in place) 13-MW hydro plants 4 9 (7% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 49, 3-kW Roof PV systems billion 3-MW Solar PV plants 14 4, 3-MW CSP plants 2 49, 1%

9 World Wind Speeds at 1m All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 7-8 TW = 6-7 times world end-use WWS power demand 23 of 11.5 TW

10 World Surface Solar 9 Surface downward solar radiation (W/m 2 ) (global avg: 193; land: 183) All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 34 TW = 3 times world end-use WWS power demand 23 of 11.5 TW

11 Area to Power 1% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Wind-BEV Footprint km 2 Turbine spacing.35-.7% of US Cellulosic E % of US Nuclear-BEV.5-.62% Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer Corn E % of US Geoth BEV.6-.8% Solar PV-BEV %

12 Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites and Bundling WWS Resources Least Cost Optimization for California For 99.8% of all hours in 25, 26, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more Hart and Jacobson (211);

13 Desertec

14 Resources for Nd 2 O 3 (Tg) Used in Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators Country Resources Needed to power 5% of world with wind China 16 CIS 3.8 U.S. 2.1 Australia 1 India.2 Others 4.1 World (.1 Tg/yr for 44 years) periodictable.com Current production:.22 Tg/yr Jacobson & Delucchi (211)

15 Resources for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries Country Resources Possible number of Bolivia 9 with current known land resources Chile 7.5 China 5.4 U.S. 4 Argentina 2.6 Brazil 1 Other World land billion+ (currently 8 million) Oceans 24 Jacobson & Delucchi (211)

16 Costs of Energy, Including Transmission ( /kwh) Energy Technology Wind onshore Wind offshore Wave >> Geothermal Hydroelectric 4 4 CSP Solar PV Tidal >> Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5)=12 8 (+5.5) =13.5 Delucchi & Jacobson (21)

17 Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS Technology Percent Supply 23 Number 5-MW onshore wind turbines 1% 2,1 5-MW offshore wind turbines 4 8,35 5-kW Res. roof PV systems 6 5 million 1-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12 5, 5-MW Solar PV plants MW CSP plants MW geothermal plants MW hydro plants (89% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines MW wave devices Total 1%

18 Area to Power 1% of NYS for all Purposes Geothermal.1% of NYS Solar PV+CSP power plants.85% of NYS Onshore wind: footprint=.5 km 2 spacing=1.46% of NYS (blue is open space) All rooftop PV (.45% of NYS) Offshore wind: spacing= 5.84% of NYS (blue is open space)

19 Summary of Plan to Repower New York State Convert the energy infrastructure in New York State (NYS) to one entirely clean and renewable for all energy sectors. The plan will - generate 4.9 million temporary jobs ($34 billion in revenue) during construction, 71, permanent jobs/yr ($6 billion/yr) for energy facilities alone. - reduce air pollution deaths by 4/yr (12-76), saving $33 (1-63) billion/yr health/productivity costs (3% of NYS GDP). - reduce NYS global warming costs by $1.7 b/yr 225; $3.2 b/yr 25).

20 Summary of Plan to Power World with WWS Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/h 2 will reduce global power demand by ~32% Eliminates million air pollution deaths/year Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability 23 electricity cost 4-1 /kwh for most, 8-13 for some WWS, vs. fossil-fuel direct+externality cost ~13.5 /kwh Additional long-distance transmission (12-2 km) ~1 /kwh

21 Summary, cont. Requires only.4% more of world land for footprint;.6% for spacing (vs. 4% of world land for cropland and pasture) Multiple methods of addressing WWS variability. Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed. Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics. Papers:

22 World saturation wind potential and its implications for a sustainable future relying on wind, water, and sunlight producing electricity and electrolytic hydrogen Mark Z. Jacobson Atmosphere/Energy Program Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University Cristina Archer (coauthor) WREC World Renewable Energy Forum Denver, Colorado, May 14, 212

23 Why Study Saturation Wind Power Potential? A recent study concluded, using a one-line equation, that the world wind potential over land accounting for energy extraction is 1 TW Another concluded that extractable jet stream power is 7.5 TW This study uses a physical model to examine the maximum power potential and how power output changes with different installed wind power densities. It then addresses whether the world can supply its power from wind.

24 End Use Power Demand For All Purposes World U.S TW 2.5 TW 23 with current fuels 16.9 TW 2.83 TW 23 converting all energy to wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/h

25 Number of Plants or Devices to Power World Technology Percent Supply 23 Number 5-MW wind turbines 5% 3.8 mill. (.8% in place).75-mw wave devices 1 72, 1-MW geothermal plants (1.7% in place) 13-MW hydro plants 4 9 (7% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines 1 49, 3-kW Roof PV systems billion 3-MW Solar PV plants 14 4, 3-MW CSP plants 2 49, 1%

26 World 1-m wind speeds (m/s), no wind turbine momentum extraction Power at all wind speeds worldwide with no power extraction: 17 TW; Power over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 7-17 TW = 6-15 times world end-use WWS power demand 23 of 11.5 TW

27 4 o x5 o Modeled vs 1.5 o x1.5 o QuikSCAT Near-Surface Wind Speeds 9 Model wind speed 15 m AGL (m/s) (glb:6.7; ld:4.55; oc:6.68) 12 9 QuikSCAT 26 wind speed 1 m AGL (m/s) Data from NASA, processed by Dan Whitt and Mike Dvorak

28 Representation of a vertically-resolved wind turbine in model Lines are model layers

29 Percent Reduction World Wind Speed When World, Land, and Jet Stream are Saturated With Turbines, for Two Parameterizations Turbine parameterization reduces winds at hub height and accounts for correct momentum extraction Roughness parameterization reduces winds most at the surface

30 Global and Land Saturation Wind Power Potentials Increasing Output With Diminishing Returns With Increasing Installations

31 Fixed Wind Power Potential of 4 Million Turbines Increasing Output With Decreasing Installed Power Density

32 4x5 Degrees 1-m World Saturation Wind Power Potential and Resulting 1-m Wind Speed 9 b.i) 4 o x5 o world 1 m extracted W/m 2 (g:224;l:54;c:5.4;o:165 TW) 2 9 b.ii) 4 o x5 o world 1 m AGL wind m/s (g:4.2; l:3.81; o:4.11) Total at 1.5 degree resolution = 259 TW

33 4x5 Degrees 1-m Land Outside Antarctica Saturation Wind Power Potential and Resulting 1-m Wind Speed c.i) Land>6S 1 m extracted wind (W/m 2 ) (g:72.3; l:72.3; c:; o:) 9 2 c.ii) Land>6S 1 m AGL wind speed (m/s) (g:7.15; l:4.48; o:8.21) Total at 1.5 degree resolution = 74 TW + 6 TW coastal = 8 TW

34 4x5 Degrees 1-km Jet Streams Saturation Wind Power Potential and Resulting 1-km Wind Speed g.i) 4 o x5 o jet stream 1 km extracted W/m 2 (g:362;l:1;c:6.7;o:255tw) g.ii) 4 o x5 o jet stream 1 km AGL wind m/s (g:9.3; l:1.1; o:8.61) Total at 1.5 degree resolution = 376 TW

35 1-m Wind Power Potential of 4 Million Turbines in 3 9 d.i) 4 o x5 o 4 mil land 1 m extracted W/m 2 (g:7.36;l:7.36;c:;o:) Configurations.15.1 Right: 7.4 TW Output.5 Down: 4 TW Bottom Right: 2 TW e.i) 4 o x5 o 4 mil 8 locs 1 m extracted W/m 2 (g:3.94;l:2.57;c:1.38;o:) f.i) 4 o x5 o 4 mil 3 locs 1 m extracted W/m 2 (g:1.77;l:1.77;o:)

36 Reduced Evaporation and Temperature Due to Surface Turbines Reduced water vapor with surface turbines reduces surface pressure, reducing geopotential heights and surface temperatures

37 Summary As number of wind turbines increase over large geographic regions, power extraction first increases linearly then converges to a saturation wind power potential: 1 m globally ~ 26 TW 1 m over land plus coastal ocean outside Antarctica ~ 8 TW 1 km in jet streams ~ 375 TW Thus, no fundamental barrier to obtaining half (5.75 TW) or many times more of world s all-purpose 23 power demand from wind Papers: