Vulnerable Europe: What can be expect? Can we adapt?

Transcription

1 Vulnerable Europe: What can be expect? Can we adapt? 1 Jelle van Minnen EEA/ETC-ACC, MNP METREX network meeting, Granada,26-28 October 2005

2 What is EEA, MNP Central European Bank EuroPol EuroStat. EEA (Copenhagen) 5 research consortia/european Topic Centres Water Biological diversity Land (use) Waster Air & Climate change 14 institutions, led by MNP/RIVM MNP: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Policy support for Government (The Hague, Brussels, Nairobi/Geneva) 2

3 Outline presentation EEA work climate change impacts in Europe Background Observed & projected impacts Uncertainties EEA 2005 work on vulnerability & adaptation Background Review activities Summary & Conclusion 3

4 Info mainly from 2004 EEA report 4

5 Objectives of the report Present current & projected climate change and its impacts Raise awareness of need for mitigate GHG emissions & adaptation Show current distance to EU indicative target for global temperature increase (e.g. +2 o C) Enable assessment of vulnerability and the development of adaptation strategies 5

6 Categories of Indicators Atmosphere and climate (4) Glaciers, snow and ice (3) Marine systems (4) Terrestrial ecosystems + biodiversity(5) Water (1) Agriculture (1) Economy (1) Human health (3) --- Examples 6

7 7 Greenhouse gas concentration Concentration of CO 2 increased 95 ppm (34%) to 375 ppm All greenhouse gases rose by 170 ppm CO 2 -equivalent (61% CO 2, 19% methane, 13% CFCs and HCFCs, and 6%N 2 O) Additional CO2 equivalents (ppm) PFC,HFC,SF6 CFC,HCFC N2O CH4 CO Increase to ppm CO 2 -equivalent is projected by 2100 Data-sources: IPCC Rise of greenhouse gases ( ) compared to the year 1750 past trends future projection

8 Total GHG emissions of EU-23 GHG emissions (base year = 100) Total EU GHG emissions are projected to increase if no additional measures are implemented EU-23 trends EU-23 with existing measures projections EU-23 with additional measures projections Source: EEA,

9 EU-15 member states, gap between GHG emission projections and the targets EU-15-17,9 Luxembourg -1,3 3,9 UK -7,8 Sweden -5,0 Netherlands -2,5 0,1 Germany 1,2 Belgium -0,4 4,9 France -1,7 9,0 Greece -0,1 9,7 Finland 12,3 Italy Austria Ireland -5,1 2,8 12,7 12,8 13,6 Denmark 18,7 Portugal Spain 6,0 15,2 25,1 26, Percentage points over-delivery (-) or shortfall (+) of respective emission target With existing domestic measures With additional domestic measures both including use of Kyoto mechanisms

10 Air Temperature Global temperature: ±0.2 C over past 100 years Europe: mean annual C Summer +0.7 C ; Winter +1.1 C past trends Temperature deviation, compared to avg. ( C) Global projection ( ): C Europe: C Summer Annual Winter European annual and seasonal mean temperature deviations, Data-sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, future projection

11 Precipitation Heterogeneous trends ( ): - northern Europe % wetter - southern Europe up to 20 % drier past trends Precipitation trend ( ): 11 Projection: - 1-2% increase per decade for northern Europe - up to -25% decrease in southern Europe => potentially more frequent droughts Data-sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, NOAA, ATEAM future projection

12 Temperature & precipitation extremes 12

13 Temperature extremes : Number of cold and frost days decreased Number of summer days increased past trends Summer days (T max >= 25 C) Changes in Projections: Cold winters disappear almost entirely by 2080 Hot summers much more frequent Data-sources: ECA, IPCC, ACACIA, future projection

14 Temperature extremes (ii) 14 Data-sources: Hadley Centre

15 Precipitation extremes : Southern Europe: decrease Mid and northern Europe: increase past trends 15 Data-source: ECA, IPCC, Very heavy precipitation days (p >= 20mm) Changes in Projections: Likely more frequent droughts and intense precipitation events future projection

16 Glaciers Retreat in eight out of the nine glacial European regions Loss of 1/3 of area and 1/2 of mass from in the Alps Since about % loss of remaining ice past trends Very likely that glacier retreat will continue Data-sources: WGMS, NSDIC, BADW, future projection 16

17 Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) ASI decreased by >7 % 1978 to 2003 (esp. during summer) Ice thickness decreased 40 % on average over the period 1960 s s. Large regional variability past trends September 1979 September ,5 1 0,5 A n o m a ly 0-0,5-1 -1, Year Projections show a predominantly ice free Arctic Ocean in summer Data-sources: IPCC, NSDIC, NVE, AWI,AARI, ACIA future projection

18 18 Sea level rise (SLR) Sea levels around Europe increased by between 0.8 mm/yr (Brest and Newlyn) and 3.0 mm/year (Narvik) Projected rate of SLR in 21st century is 2.2 to 4.4 times higher Large uncertainty because of Greenland & Antarctic Sea level is projected to continue to rise for centuries Data-sources: PSMSL, ESEAS,... past trends future projection

19 Uncertainty in SLR Source: Hare,

20 Ecosystems and biodiversity 20

21 21 Plant species composition Population decreases of certain plant species Plant species diversity has increased in north-western Europe Ellenberg values X (indifferent) 2-4 (cold) (warm) change (%) Netherlands X (indifferent) 1-3 (cold) 6-8 (warm) Ellenberg values 4 5 change (%) Change in species composition ( vs ) further northward movement of many plant species Non-climate related factors will limit the migration and adaptation capabilities Uncertain consequences Data-sources: National data sets, IMAGE2/EuroMove, ATEAM, IPCC, Norway past trends future projection

22 species composition (ii) More tropical species in general Good correlation between presence & climate 22

23 Human Health 23

24 24 Heat waves More than 20,000 excess deaths in Western and Southern Europe in the summer of 2003 Number of death Death in Hospitals Death rep. by firebrigades Daily Minimum Daily Maximum Data-sources: IVS, WHO, ,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 Temperature (Daily number of excess death during the heatwave in summer 2003 in Paris) The number of excess deaths due to heat is projected to increase in the future past trends future projection

25 25 Tick borne diseases Tick-borne cases increased between 1980 and 1995 in the Baltic region and central Europe Unclear how many of cases of Lyme borreliosis annually in Europe due to the temperature increase Projections uncertain Data-sources: Univ. of Stockholm, SZU, past trends future projection

26 Economic losses 26

27 Economic losses 64% of catastrophic events and 79 % econ. Losses since 1980 attributable to weather and climate extremes 2x of annual disastrous weather climate related events over 1990s Economic losses increased from decadal average less than 5 in the 1980s to about more than 11 billion US$ in 1990s Earthquakes Storms Flooding Others Economic losses Section of ensured losses Increasing likelihood of extreme events higher losses Data-sources: Munich-Re, Swiss-Re, EMDAT (CRED), past trends future projection

28 Summary 2004 Impact study Climate change is already visible globally and Europe. Many more projected Human activities are contributing (esp. >1970) Impacts vary across Europe & sectors Many negative effects in Southern Europe Many impacts have long time horizont Uncertainties differ, but most indicators show trend Adaptation measures are needed (Next Steps: Review, 2008 update) 28

29 2005 work on Vulnerability & adaptation (V&A): Why? to provide information on vulnerable regions and sectors across Europe to learn from best practices by sharing information among EEA member countries to contribute to discussion on adaptation strategies &policies at EU and national level to identify information needs 29

30 What is adaptation & vulnerability? exposure sensitivity adaptation, adaptive capacity impact vulnerability 30

31 Example: Sea level 31

32 Scenarios until 2100 (for NL) Temperature: O C Summer Prec.: %, Summer ET: % Winter Prec.: % Extremes Freq. Extreme Prec. (>140mm): 2-10 more frequent Extreme winter precipitation: +10 tot 40% Increasing risk summer droughts Rivers: +20% discharge, more seasonal Sea level rise IPCC: m New insights: possible +7-13m over 1000 years 32 Source (KNMI, 2003, Nota Ruimte voor revier, 2005)

33 2005 work on V&A: How? Project team (ETC/ACC): Tyndall Centre (UK), UBA& PIK (Ger), RIVM-MNP (NL) Literature review: Peer reviewed publications, conference proceedings, project reports; National communications to the UNFCCC Questionnaire: Request information on national climate change impacts, vulnerability assessments, and adaptation policy framework and actions Responses from 18 countries and the JRC Case studies: Ecosystems (system vulnerability) The Alps (regional vulnerability) Water resources in the Mediterranean (sectoral vulnerability) 33

34 EEA work on vulnerability: : Results Europe s natural environment and human society vulnerable to climate variability, climate change and sea level rise Sensitivity varies across Europe & sectors; Impacts positive, negative are however dominating More adverse impacts projected in southern Europe than in northern Europe There are differences in adaptive capacity among EEA member countries & sectors 34

35 Regional & sectoral differentiation Arctic regions (especially Greenland) Economic and cultural impacts on indigenous communities Loss of endemic plant species Reduced (seasonal) sea ice Retreat of glaciers Thawing of permafrost Mountain regions Changes in water discharge & avalanche frequency Retreat of glaciers & less frequent and secure snow cover Loss of endemic plant species Economic losses in tourist sector Coastal zones & wetlands Changes in water quality due to algal blooms Coastal erosion and eventually loss due to sea level rise More frequent floods due to extreme events Mediterranean region More frequent droughts & fires and degradation due to salinisation Reduced agricultural production, due to droughts and salinisation Economic losses in tourist sector European cities Health impacts due to heat stress, increased frequency of summer smog 35

36 Key vulnerabilities (i): ecosystems 36

37 In northern/western parts of Europe there are/will be beneficial impacts, while in sourthern/eastern and central Europe many impacts are/will be adverse Crop productio n Livestock Northern Beneficial impacts result from longer growing season and northward expansion of crop cultivation. Potential beneficial impacts as a result of reduced feed requirements, increased survival, and lower energy costs Southern Drier conditions and higher temperature lead to potential decrease in crop yields; variability in crop yields is likely to increase Adverse impacts on summer livestock through heat stress and decreased productivity of pastures and forage crops Eastern Part of Eastern Europe: Drier conditions and higher temperature lead to potential decrease in crop yields; variability in crop yields is likely to increase Central Potentially severe impacts from increase in temperature variability Western Beneficial impacts result from longer growing season and northward expansion of crop cultivation. Soils and land resources Forestry Mountain cryospher e and ecosyste ms Water resources Coastal zone Tourism Human health Energy Mountainous areas currently without trees are likely to be covered with forests under a warmer climate. Productivity of high latitude forests is projected to increase substantially. Decrease in glaciarized areas is expected under a warmer climate. Permafrost in the low land will disappear as climate warms up. Cryosphere changes might lead to changes in the frequency and intensity of related natural hazards, such as snow avalanches, ice avalanches, and rock falls. Annual average runoff and water availability are projected to increase; Storm surges might change under a changing climate. Significant loss of wetlands and habitats are expected around the Baltic Sea. The European Atlantic coast could be adversely affected by an increase in winter rainfall. Temperature rise coupled with reduced rainfall will exacerbate soil salinization. Increased wind and water erosion under a changing climate would push many areas into a more arid and eroded landscape. Limited moisture resulting from temperature rise and possible decrease in summer rainfall may lead to regional decline in forest productivity. Summer temperature rise and rainfall reduction may further increase forest fire risk. Decrease in annual runoff; temperature rise and changing rainfall patterns may lead to a reduction in groundwater recharge and groundwater level; higher water temperature and low level of runoff in the summer could lead to deterioration in water quality. Water demand from all sectors (industry, domestic, and agriculture) is projected to increase. Hence, water stress will be exacerbated by changing climatic conditions. Significant loss of coastal habitats is expected around the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Summer heat waves and drought induced water supply problem and forest fire risks might weaken the current tourist flow. Energy demand for air conditioning is likely to increase in warmer seasons. Mountainous areas in the Northern part of European Russia currently without trees are likely to be covered with forests under a warmer climate. Decrease in annual runoff; temperature rise and changing rainfall patterns may lead to a reduction in groundwater recharge and groundwater level; higher water temperature and low level of runoff in the summer could lead to deterioration in water quality. Water demand from all sectors (industry, domestic, and agriculture) is projected to increase. Hence, water stress will be exacerbated by changing climatic conditions. Difficult economic conditions might affect the delivery of health care and the public health infrastructure in some countries. They are particularly vulnerable to potential health impacts. Limited moisture resulting from temperature rise and possible decrease in summer rainfall may lead to regional decline in forest productivity. Low flows in mountain watersheds may be reduced by up to 50 per cent. Difficult economic conditions might affect the delivery of health care and the public health infrastructure in some countries. They are particularly vulnerable to potential health impacts. Water availability is projected to increase. Storm surges might change under a changing climate. Temperature rise and changes in snow cover would adversely affect winter sports industry in the Alps.

38 Key sensitivity: coastal zones 38

39 work on adaptation: : Results EU Climate change adaptation increased importance in policy agenda: Council meeting (March 2005) Commission proposals for post-2012 strategies mention adaptation. Special request to JRC to evaluate climate change and water relationship (2005) Issue of green week (June 2005):Biodiversity and climate change, and Spatial planning and climate change recognized need to incorporate climate risk into poverty reduction strategies and national strategies for sustainable development; In relation to global, EU and national level Strategies contain measures mainly in areas with long tradition dealing with climate extremes EU supports vulnerable developing countries; Many research projects started However no EU policies (e.g., CAP), environmental directives and policies (e.g. WFD, the Biodiversity Strategy) do not include specific P&M to address climate change impacts Many barriers and opportunities exist 39

40 EU Research programmes (examples)

41 Adaptation strategies (MS) Some MS have own research projects & in phase defining national adaptation strategies National adaptation strategies under preparation or due to be launched in Denmark, Finland, Germany & UK; Adaptation measures included in Czech Republic s National Climate Change Action Plan; Norway & Netherlands indicate importance of adapting to climate change impacts (e.g. in relation to spatial planning); Some countries started developing ecological corridors (ensuring coherence), to allow ecosystems to adapt to changing climate In many MS (e.g., Austria, France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland), adaptation measures are taking place in the context of natural hazard prevention, environment protection, and sustainable resource management => Integratation 41

42 Example of integration: nature development in NL 42

43 Barriers for adaptation policies Currently low level of confidence in climate change scenarios of extreme events at high spatial resolution, and insufficient non-climate environmental and socioeconomic data hindering effective planning for adapting to potential climate change impacts; Gaps in knowledge on potential adaptation policies and measures and their feasibility, costs and benefits; Lack of policy guidance, institutional support and resources, particularly at the local level; Insufficient coordination between sectors and countries reducing efficiency of climate change risk management. 43

44 Opportunities for adaptation measures Increasing recognition of need for adaptation in different sectors; There are market opportunities for new technologies (e.g. building design; infrastructure); Win-win options exist to minimize harmful climate change impacts and produce other social, environmental or economic benefits (e.g., new energy efficient building design to adapt to hot summers could save energy cost and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions); No-regret strategies, justified under many plausible scenarios, make the link between climate change adaptation and sustainable development, and have been prioritised by many member countries 44

45 Summary: Vulnerability & adaptation Is recognised of being important Is new field in science & policy Requires sectoral & geographical differentiated approach Yet not much concreted in EU policy plans. Somewhat better at MS level Co-ordinated at EU level could be beneficial information exchange and experience sharing between countries, and sectors & policies to mobilize resources and ensure the sustainability of adaptation 45