4-6 October 2016 The NEC, Birmingham, UK. cleanenergylive.co.uk

Transcription

1 4-6 October 2016 The NEC, Birmingham, UK cleanenergylive.co.uk #celive

2 cleanenergylive.co.uk #celive

3 JUNE 2016 MARKET UPDATE: WHAT IS THE LANDSCAPE FOR LARGE-SCALE ENERGY STORAGE IN EUROPE? Clean Energy Live Sam Wilkinson, Senior Research Manager Sam.Wilkinson@ihs.com

4 ABOUT IHS WHAT WE DO We offer information, analytics and expertise to organizations around the world. INFORMATION They depend on our insights to help them make decisions about everything from day-to-day operations to longterm investments. EXPERTISE ANALYTICS Clean Energy Live 2016 / Oct

5 IHS Energy Storage Intelligence Service All data in this presentation is taken from: IHS Energy Storage Intelligence Service Comprehensive coverage of the global energy storage market An ongoing flow of information throughout the year Topical reports, insights, market trackers, databases and forecasts Please contact me for more information 5

6 Setting the scene: The global energy storage market 6

7 Storage power (GW) Clean Energy Live 2016 / Oct GW of energy storage to be installed globally by 2025 Global cumulative energy storage capacity Behind-the-meter Utility-side-of-meter Source: IHS 2016 IHS 7

8 Annual additions GW Energy storage: Is there a boom ahead of us? Clean Energy Live 2016 / Oct 2016 Annual global installations for wind, solar and batteries Rapid renewable growth driven by subsidies Global austerity measures, subsidies cuts but manufacturing scales Global commodities market collapse Wind Solar PV Batteries Notes: Solar PV installations are shown in AC. Include only batteries for the power sector. Source: IHS 2016 IHS 8

9 Installed capacity (global) <10 MW >1 GW Clean Energy Live 2016 / Oct 2016 Technology disruption creates uncertain outlook Market maturity of grid storage technology Note: A standard Scurve for technology adoption is shown for reference Technology scaling up Li-ion Sodiumsulfur Ice and chilled water Pumped hydro Early stage* Zn-based batteries** Flow Molten Flywheels salt Ni-MH battery Conventional CAES Lead-acid Technology maturity Note: *Early-stage companies do not yet have any operating capacity on the grid, nor any contracts for full-scale systems. ** Zn-based batteries include Eos Energy Storage and Fluidic Energy; both are just past the demonstration phase and have either capacity installed or contracts with large utilities. CAES = compressed air energy storage. Zn = zinc; Ni-MH = nickel-metal-hydride; Li-ion = lithium-ion. Source: IHS 2016 IHS 9

10 Energy storage hardware costs to decline by nearly 80% by Battery and inverter price reductions 2012 to 2020 For example 1 MW / 1 MWh system ($k) % reduction % reduction Total Cost Module Price Reduction Inverter Price Reduction Total Cost Note: Includes battery module and inverter only 10

11 Large-scale energy storage in Europe current status 11

12 EMEA large-scale energy storage pipeline continues to expand 500 Energy Storage Pipeline in EMEA as of September 2016 (MW) Planned projects = 560 MW Operational Planned - Late Stage Planned - Early Stage Note: Utility-side-of-meter projects only 12

13 United Kingdom and Germany dominate EMEA energy storage pipeline Middle East Italy Africa Rest of Europe France Germany UK UK 56% of current pipeline Germany 23% of current pipeline Note: Utility-side-of-meter projects only 13

14 Developer rankings Energy Storage Pipeline in EMEA by developer as of September 2016 AES Energy Storage STEAG Terna ADWEA RES EDF Low Carbon Completed Planned Akuo Energy Element Power Vattenfall E.ON Others Established utilities and renewable developers lead the way Note: Utility-side-of-meter projects only. Based on projects included in IHS Energy Storage Company and Project Database 14

15 The future of large-scale energy storage in Europe 15

16 What will drive the adoption of large-scale energy storage in Europe? Reduced prices attractive economics e.g. primary reserve in Germany Superior performance e.g. Enhanced Frequency Regulation (EFR) in UK Accelerating renewable penetration e.g. Solar & storage tenders in overseas French territories Increasing peak demand in urban areas e.g. UKPN demonstration project in Leighton Buzzard, UK 16

17 Which will be the next large-scale energy storage markets in Europe? 17

18 Aggregated behind the meter batteries competing with large-scale storage Energy storage revenue streams (conceptual) Peak shifting Selfconsumption Asset siting Behind-the-meter Aggregation of behind-themeter would enable access to more revenue streams Peaking capacity Power reliability/ back-up Load shifting Renewables firming Utility-side-of meter Who benefits from storage Renewable IPP Consumer TSO/Utility T&D Support Ancillary services Source: IHS 2016 IHS 18

19 Annual installations in EMEA to exceed 1 GW in ,200 Annual energy storage installations in EMEA (MW) 1, France Germany Italy Rest of Africa Rest of Europe South Africa UK Note: Utility-side-of-meter projects only 19

20 The decarbonised power system in 2040 will rely on large-scale energy storage Global power generation in 2040 (% of TWh) IHS Energy Climate Change Dialogue 2 Degree Scenario Solar + Wind = 50% of global power generation Requires a major large-scale energy storage breakthrough in technology and volumes Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Coal Natural gas Oil Wind Solar Tidal Biomass and waste Note: 2 Degree Scenario represents a case under which global greenhouse gas emissions are limited such that climate change obligations are met 20

21 Key takeaways The energy storage market is gaining momentum due to cost declines and technology improvements The UK and Germany lead Europe s market at the moment There is growing evidence of the value of energy storage. This will help to drive future growth Aggregated behind-the-meter storage has the potential to disrupt the large-scale energy storage market. Energy storage will have a huge role to play in the decarbonised power system of the future. 21

22 More information? Sam Wilkinson Senior Research Manager, IHS Technology All data and analysis taken from IHS Energy Storage Intelligence Service IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2016 IHS. All rights reserved. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.