NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY

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1 TO: NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY M E M O R A N D U M Air Quality Subcommittee Members Samuel Alai, Mayor, City of Broadview Heights, Cuyahoga County Melinda Bartizal, Transportation Planner, Ohio Department of Transportation Jeff Brandon, Trustee Chair, Montville Township Walter Skip Claypool, Commissioner, Geauga County Maribeth Feke, Director of Planning, Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority Tim Fischer, Manager of the Division of Air Pollution Control, Northeast District Office, Ohio EPA John R. Hamercheck, Commissioner, Lake County David G. Hearne, Interim Commissioner, Cleveland Division of Air Quality Ted Kalo, Commissioner, Lorain County Bert Mechenbier, Air Pollution Control Supervisor, Lake County General Health District Marvin Rogers, Chief of Air Monitoring, Cleveland Department of Public Health Sam Rubens, Administrator, Akron Regional Air Quality Management District FROM: Maribeth Feke, Chair DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: Air Quality Subcommittee Friday, September 21, 2018 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. NOACA Offices 1299 Superior Avenue, Cleveland, Ohio Please note that in addition to the members listed above, any interested Board members are welcome to attend. I look forward to seeing you on Friday, September 21 st at 9:00 a.m. at the NOACA offices.

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3 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY Friday, September 21, :00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. NOACA Offices 1299 Superior Avenue, Cleveland, Ohio AIR QUALITY SUBCOMMITTEE 1. Minutes of June 15, 2018, Meeting 2. Public Comments on Current Agenda Items 3. Chair s/executive Director s Report Page 1-1 Oral Oral 4. Action Items 5. Presentation / Discussion Items a. Future Action i. None b. Information i. Results of Market Feedback Tool for Air Quality Strategy ii. Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy Update: Goals and Objectives iii Commuter Choice Awards iv. Gohio Commute Update and Performance Measures v. Overview of The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule vi. CY 2018 Air Quality Forecast Accuracy (through August 31) Old Business 7. New Business 8. Adjournment Next Meeting: Friday, December 21, :00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. NOACA Offices

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5 Agenda Item No. 1 MINUTES

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7 NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Minutes June 15, 2018 NOACA Offices 1299 Superior Avenue, Cleveland, Ohio Present: Please see the attached attendance record. Ms. Maribeth Feke, Chair of the Air Quality Subcommittee, convened the meeting at 9:00 a.m. Meeting Minutes A motion was made by Mr. Dave Schroedel to approve the minutes of the Air Quality Subcommittee meeting held on March 16, The motion was seconded by Trustee Jeffrey Brandon. The motion passed by voice vote. Public Comments No public comments were made at this meeting. ACTION ITEMS Transportation Performance Management Target Setting Ms. Kathy Sarli reviewed the following: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) performance measure areas Required targets for congestion, travel time reality (TTR), and air quality Three calculation methods (A, B and C) for non-sov travel Target for Cleveland annual percentage of non-sov travel by all modes Emissions reduction calculation Target for VOC emission reduction by kg/day Target for PM 2.5 emission reduction by kg/day Target for NOx emission reduction by kg/day Ms. Sarli stated that NOACA s estimated emission reductions for CMAQ projects are as follows: 2 Years VOC: kg/day NOx: kg/day PM 2.5: 3.96 kg/day 4 Years VOC: kg/day NOx: kg/day PM 2.5: 7.58 kg/day Ms. Sarli stated that the proposed targets for NOACA are as follows: CMAQ Traffic Congestion 2 Year 4 Year PHED N/A < 10 hrs. / yr. Non-SOV Travel 18.0% 18.50% 7914c 1-1

8 CMAQ On-Road Mobile Source Emissions 2 Year 4 Year Volatile Organic Compounds kg/day kg/day Nitrous Oxide kg/day kg/day PM kg/day 7.58 kg/day Ms. Sarli mentioned that NOACA is considering potential targets for the air quality index and ozone exceedance days. Ms. Sarli stated that MPOs must either support the state target or establish their own quantifiable targets within 180 days of the state target establishment, which is November 19, Ms. Feke commented that NOACA s targets are within the range of the state targets. Ms. Sarli said NOACA is looking to exceed the state targets. Commissioner Hamercheck asked if it was realistic to assume NOACA can meet the emissions reductions. Ms. Sarli said yes and noted that the targets are calculated based on the emissions reduction of CMAQ projects. She mentioned that NOACA has to calculate the emissions reductions before a project can receive CMAQ funding. Ms. Sarli noted that NOACA will have an opportunity to reevaluate the targets in 2 years. Commissioner Hamercheck asked what would happen to the targets if industrial activity picks up. He also asked if NOACA would be held responsible for emission sources out of its control. Ms. Sarli stated that the targets are for mobile source emissions. Mr. Tim Kovach stated that the targets are calculated in advance and the data from the sensors do not impact those targets. A motion was made by Mr. Schroedel to recommend the targets to the Planning and Programming Committee (PPC). The motion was seconded by Commissioner Hamercheck. The motion was approved by voice vote. Transportation Conformity Analysis for IR-71 Auxiliary Lane Project Mr. Tim Kovach stated that NOACA is required to complete a conformity determination for all Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs) and long-range transportation plans (LRTPs). He noted that estimated emissions must fall within budgets set by State Implementation Plans (SIPs). Mr. Kovach stated that the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) has proposed adding an auxiliary lane to IR-71, from IR-80 entrance ramp to SR-82 westbound exit. He noted that the lane was determined to be a capacity addition, which triggered the conformity analysis. Mr. Kovach mentioned that an Interagency Consultation (IAC) call occurred on May 1, Mr. Kovach stated that NOACA coordinated with Akron Metropolitan Area Transportation Study (AMATS) and Erie Regional Planning Commission (ERPC) on the analysis. Mr. Kovach reviewed graphs of the Hour Ozone NAAQS, 2006 Annual PM 2.5 NAAQS, and 2012 Annual PM 2.5 NAAQS. Mr. Kovach mentioned that the air quality conformity determination for the I-71 Auxiliary Lane project will be recommended to PPC on July 13, If approved by PPC, the analysis will be presented to the Board for approval on September 14, 2018, and ERPC and AMATS will take action to endorse the determination at their respective Board meetings in August and September Mr. Kovach stated that staff will then forward the conformity analysis to ODOT, FHWA, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for final approval. 7914c 1-2

9 A motion was made by Commissioner Hamercheck to recommend the conformity analysis to PPC. The motion was seconded by Mr. Schroedel. Ms. Leslie Farley thanked NOACA staff, on behalf of ODOT District 12, for completing the conformity analysis. She stated that ODOT understands that the requirement of performing an analysis is based on the mile length definition and not on how the lane is going to function. However, the additional lane is not going to add capacity, but will be used for storage to improve safety. The Air Quality Subcommittee voted and the motion passed by voice vote. PRESENTATIONS / DISCUSSION ITEMS Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy Update Ms. Kristin Ferguson stated that the Markey Group is helping NOACA to develop a long-term Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy. She noted that the strategy will guide NOACA s air quality outreach activities over the next 5-10 years. Ms. Ferguson stated that the Markey Group and NOACA staff have obtained input from public focus groups, market feedback tools (informal surveys), market research, and NOACA s subcommittees and advisory councils. She noted that the Markey Group is planning to conduct an online survey this month with the general public in the 8-county air quality region. Ms. Ferguson stated that the Markey Group and NOACA staff will analyze the survey results and add the findings to information previously collected via public involvement and market research. Ms. Ferguson noted that the Markey Group has initiated drafts of the final deliverables and will work with NOACA staff to finalize the Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy and Communications Plan. Ms. Ferguson mentioned that the Subcommittee will receive an update on the draft deliverables and will be asked to provide input on the Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy prior to finalizing the documents. Mr. David Hearne asked Ms. Ferguson if she could share her contact information with the Subcommittee. Ms. Ferguson said NOACA staff will provide members with the information Commuter Choice Awards Ms. Beverly Burtzlaff stated that the 2018 Commuter Choice Awards are sponsored by NOACA in partnership with the Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority (GCRTA) and Sustainable Cleveland. She noted that 29 organizations applied for Commuter Choice Awards this year. She mentioned that each organization submitted a survey detailing its policies, facilities, and incentives to encourage alternative commuting. Ms. Burtzlaff stated that NOACA and its partners will award overall winners with a gold, silver, or bronze rating based on employer support, location, and commuter behavior. Ms. Burtzlaff mentioned that the Clean Air Challenge to assess commuter behavior will continue throughout the month of June. She noted that the statistics for the Challenge as of June 12, 2018, were as follows: Trips: 1,299 Miles: 11,321 Calories burned: 166,583 CO 2 saved: 3.2 tons Money saved: $3,236 Ms. Burtzlaff stated that winners will be announced and prizes will be awarded at the 2018 Cleveland Sustainability Summit in September c 1-3

10 Gohio Commute Update and Performance Measures Mr. Kovach provided background on Gohio Commute and talked about the performance measures for the program. He stated that performance measures include user metrics; outreach and promotion metrics; systemwide performance measures; and platform administration and enhancement metrics. Mr. Kovach stated that user and systemwide metrics (as of 5/31/18) were as follows: Total users: 5,320 Total non-sov trips: 26,541 Total VMT avoided: 263,492 Total trips (all modes): 33,856 Total calories burned: 2,226,104 CO 2 avoided: metric tons CO avoided: kg NO x avoided: kg VOCs avoided: kg PM 2.5 avoided: 8.95 kg Mr. Kovach stated that 43 organizations have created subsites on Gohio Commute, bringing the total number of subsites/networks to 73. The platform administration and enhancement metrics includes 12 total challenges in the region; 46 total events; and 22 employer/organization incentives. Mr. Kovach stated that NOACA staff has been working with RideAmigos to redesign the dashboard; update the ticketing system; and improve the registration process of the Gohio Commute platform. Mr. Kovach mentioned that NOACA, Bike Cleveland and ugo sponsored a bike challenge during National Bike Month in May using the Gohio Commute platform. NOACA awarded donated prizes to weekly raffle winners and 1 st, 2 nd, and 3 rd place grand prize winners. The final statistics were as follows: 1,871 trips logged $6,835 saved 12,076 miles biked 603,800 calories burned 4.9 tons CO 2 saved 126 participants Mr. Kovach stated that staff will continue to promote Gohio Commute to interested organizations; work with RideAmigos to improve the platform; enhance user experience; and create new events on the platform. CY 2017 Air Quality Trends Update Mr. Kovach stated that NOACA tracks and provides regular updates on air quality in Northeast Ohio. He mentioned that Northeast Ohio was redesignated to maintenance of the 2008 NAAQS for ground-level ozone (O 3) in January 2017 and USEPA strengthened NAAQS to 70 parts per billion (ppb) from 75 ppb on October 26, USEPA issued nonattainment designations on April 30, 2018, including a designation for the 7-county region as a marginal nonattainment area. Mr. Kovach stated that Lake County had the highest O 3 value (73 ppb) in In , the average 3-year values for Lake (74 ppb) and Geauga (73 ppb) Counties were above NAAQS that led to the region s six (6) exceedance days in Mr. Kovach stated that Cuyahoga and Lorain Counties were designated as nonattainment based on the 2012 annual PM 2.5 NAAQS in Cuyahoga County's 2017 level was 11.2 µg/m 3, which was up slightly from 10.7 µg/m 3 in c 1-4

11 Mr. Kovach stated that Lake County was designated as nonattainment for the 2010 sulfur dioxide (SO 2) annual NAAQS (75 ppb) in July He noted that Ohio EPA has initiated a redesignation request in advance of the attainment date of October 4, Mr. Kovach mentioned that NOACA staff is in the process of finalizing the draft CY 2017 Air Quality Trends Report. Commissioner Hamercheck asked Mr. Kovach if he was aware of the source of the pollutants in Geauga and Lake Counties. Mr. Kovach said the winds come from Cuyahoga, Lorain and Summit Counties and push the pollutants into Geauga and Lake Counties. Commissioner Hamercheck asked why the sensors in the source counties have not been picking up O 3 data. Mr. Kovach said O 3 takes up to 4 hours to form so monitors may not pick up the highest levels. CY2018 Air Quality Forecast Accuracy Mr. Joe MacDonald stated that NOACA s forecasts daily peak 8-hour ground-level ozone (O 3) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentrations. He noted that NOACA posts daily forecasts through AirNowTech, in affiliation with the USEPA. Mr. MacDonald mentioned that the forecasts are based on reviews of several meteorological variables and model guidance. Mr. MacDonald reviewed the NOACA and NOAA forecast performance for O 3 for the period of March 1-May 31, NOACA s forecasts were 78% accurate for 50 ppb and 98% accurate for 70 ppb, while the forecasts for NOAA 6Z/12Z were 81/83% accurate for 50 ppb and 95/98% accurate for 70 ppb. Mr. MacDonald stated that for the hour O 3 standard of 70 ppb, there were two (2) missed opportunities that NOAA and NOACA did not forecast observed exceedance and one (1) false alarm for NOAA when a forecast exceedance of the standard did not materialize. Mr. MacDonald reviewed the NOACA forecast performance for PM 2.5 for the period March 1- May 31, NOACA s forecasts were 66% accurate for the good/moderate threshold and 100% accurate for the moderate/unhealthy threshold. Mr. MacDonald stated that he will continue to track the forecast performance of O 3 for NOACA and NOAA; PM 2.5 for NOACA; collaborate with NOAA personnel to report model performance and work with other air quality forecasters in the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic to tweak forecast protocol to improve performance. Mr. MacDonald stated that he will provide an update at the next Air Quality Subcommittee meeting. Old Business No old business was discussed at this meeting. New Business No new business was discussed at this meeting. Adjournment Ms. Feke announced that the next Air Quality Subcommittee meeting will be held at the NOACA offices on September 21, 2018, at 9:00 a.m. There being no further discussion, the meeting was adjourned at 10:05 a.m. 7914c 1-5

12 2018 NOACA AIR QUALITY SUBCOMMITTEE (AQS) MEETING DATES 03/16/18 06/15/18 09/21/18 12/21/18 Samuel Alai Mayor of Broadview Heights (David Schroedel, Alternate) Melinda Bartizal, Transportation Planner, ODOT District 12 (David Short, Alternate) (Leslie Farley, Alternate on 6/15/18) Jeff Brandon, Montville Township (Christine Kusnerak, Alternate) Walter Skip Claypool, Geauga County Commissioner Linda Burhenne, Alternate Maribeth Feke, Planning Director, GCRTA Tim Fischer, Ohio EPA (Corey Kurjian, Alternate) John R. Hamercheck, Lake County Commissioner (Daniel J. Gerson, Alternate) David G. Hearne, Interim Air Quality Commissioner, Cleveland Department of Public Health Ted Kalo, Commissioner (Robert Klaiber, Alternate) Bert Mechenbier Air Pollution Control Supervisor, Lake County General Health District Marvin Rogers, Chief of Air Monitoring Cleveland Division of Air Quality Sam Rubens, Administrator Akron Regional Air Quality Management District X - Member present A X X X X X X X A A X X X X X A - Alternate present 1-6

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15 Agenda Item No. 2 PUBLIC COMMENTS

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17 Agenda Item No. 3 CHAIR/EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR S REPORT

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19 Agenda Item No. 4 ACTION ITEMS

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21 Agenda Item No. 5 PRESENTATION/DISCUSSION ITEMS

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23 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Grace Gallucci, Executive Director DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: Results of Market Feedback Tool for Air Quality Strategy ACTION REQUESTED No action is requested at this time. This item is included for information and presentation only. BACKGROUND In June 2017, the NOACA Board approved a contract with Markey Group, a communications consulting firm, to develop an air quality public education and outreach strategy. This strategy will guide NOACA s air quality outreach activities over the next 5-10 years. In order to develop this strategy, Markey Group has sought and received public input via focus groups, informal surveys, interviews, and presentations to NOACA s advisory councils and the Air Quality Subcommittee. Most recently, Markey Group with the help of Research Now released an online market feedback tool to 300 residents in NOACA s 8-county air quality management district. This tool was designed to assess the public s 1) awareness of air quality challenges in our region, 2) understanding of behaviors that affect air quality, and 3) willingness and ability to take action to improve air quality. Markey Group then reviewed and analyzed the responses, shared the findings with NOACA staff, and incorporated these results into its draft Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy and the draft communications plan. A Markey Group representative will apprise subcommittee members of the results of this market feedback tool. FINANCIAL IMPACT There is no financial impact. CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS NOACA staff will provide updates on the Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy as it develops. gg/bb/7914c 5-1

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25 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Grace Gallucci, Executive Director DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy Update: Goals and Objectives ACTION REQUESTED No action is requested at this time. This item is included for information and presentation only. BACKGROUND In June 2017, the NOACA Board approved a contract with Markey Group, a communications consulting firm, to develop an air quality public education and outreach strategy. This strategy will guide NOACA s air quality outreach activities over the next 5-10 years. Most importantly, this strategy will guide implementation of NOACA s Regional Strategic Plan, and help bring the region into compliance with the United States Environmental Protection Agency s (US EPA s) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Specifically, the strategy will identify gaps in existing air quality programming in the region, and engage the community (individuals, employers, health care organizations, and educational institutions) in actions aimed at improving air quality. The current draft of the strategy identifies the broad goals and underlying objectives that will serve as the framework for more specific detailed action steps. Staff will present these goals and objectives, and seek input from the Subcommittee. FINANCIAL IMPACT There is no financial impact. CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS NOACA staff will provide updates on the Air Quality Public Education and Outreach Strategy as it develops. gg/bb/7914c 5-3

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27 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Grace Gallucci, Executive Director DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: 2018 Commuter Choice Awards ACTION REQUESTED No action is requested at this time. This item is included for information and presentation only. BACKGROUND Since 2014, NOACA s annual Commuter Choice Awards have recognized organizations in Northeast Ohio that promote alternative transportation modes and foster behavioral change in their employees commute choices. NOACA and its partners award top employers with Gold, Silver, or Bronze ratings based on employer support (policies, facilities, and incentives), employer location, and (starting in 2017) employee commuter behavior. NOACA also recognizes best in category winners: large business, small business, large government entity or non-profit, small government entity or non-profit. In 2018, NOACA partnered with Sustainable Cleveland and the Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority (GCRTA) to sponsor the awards. NOACA accepted applications for the 2018 Commuter Choice Awards from April 25 to May 31, and 29 organizations entered the competition. Throughout June, the participating organizations competed in a month-long challenge on Gohio Commute called the NEO Clean Air Challenge to measure and rank employee participation in alternative commutes. Organizations whose employees logged the most alternative commutes in June (per capita) boosted their overall scores. In July and August, staff scored the Commuter Choice Awards applications. In August, NOACA staff met with Sustainable Cleveland and GCRTA staff to review scores and determine winners in the various categories. On September 20, NOACA and its partners will announce the winners and distribute awards at the annual Sustainable Cleveland Summit. FINANCIAL IMPACT There is no financial impact. CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS NOACA staff will provide updates on the 2018 Commuter Choice Awards as they develop. gg/bb/7915c 5-5

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29 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Grace Gallucci, Executive Director DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: Gohio Commute Update and Performance Measures ACTION REQUESTED No action requested. This item is included for information and presentation only. BACKGROUND/INFORMATION In partnership with the six (6) other largest Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in Ohio, NOACA manages Gohio Commute, a multi-regional transportation demand management (TDM) platform. Gohio Commute, which launched in April 2017, serves as a one-stop-shop trip planner for the NOACA region, with connectivity throughout Ohio. NOACA has worked to engage businesses, local governments, colleges, and other organizations to create their own subsites through the platform. These subsites enable organizations to offer their employees (or students) targeted incentives to choose healthier, more efficient modes of transportation. In order to evaluate the success of Gohio Commute, NOACA staff have developed a set of performance measures, which they will track on a regular basis going forward. These performance measures fall within four categories: 1. User Metrics e.g. number of registered users, number of logged trips 2. Outreach and Promotion Metrics e.g. number of Gohio Commute workshops, number of subsites created 3. Systemwide Performance Metrics e.g. number of non-drive alone trips logged, amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2) saved 4. Platform Administration and Enhancement Metrics e.g. number of map layers added, number of events created From June 1, 2018, through August 31, 2018, 285 new users have joined Gohio Commute from the NOACA region, bringing the total number of users to 5,614. During this period, users in the NOACA region logged more than 10,717 trips, of which nearly 88% were via alternative modes. This count brings the total number of alternative trips to nearly 35,000 since the platform launched. Gohio Commute users saved more than $31,000 in commute costs, and avoided more than 24.5 tons of CO 2 emissions across this span, increasing these savings to $116,000 and just under 100 tons of CO 2 since launch. There are currently 74 subsites in the NOACA region on Gohio 5-7

30 Commute, representing 44 different organizations throughout the region. Moreover, users have created 14 challenges, 25 incentives, and 64 events on the platform. FINANCIAL IMPACT NOACA will spend $7,500 on Gohio Commute during FY2018. Compared to OhioRideshare, the agency will accrue a net savings in operational costs of about $4,000 per year from the implementation of this platform during FY2018 and FY2019. CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS Staff will continue to promote Gohio Commute to interested organizations. Staff will also continue to work with RideAmigos to make additions/improvements to the user experience going forward. GG/tk/7916c 5-8

31 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Grace Gallucci, Executive Director DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: Overview of The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule ACTION REQUESTED No action requested. This item is included for information and presentation only. BACKGROUND/INFORMATION On August 2, the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) published a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) to revise the Model Year (MY) corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. The Agencies published this NPRM, The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, in the Federal Register on August 24 (83 FR 42986). This rule amends the current standards for this period, which the Agencies had initially proposed in In January 2017, U.S. EPA published its Final Determination on the Appropriateness of the Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards under the Midterm Evaluation, in which the Agency concluded that the fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards for these years were appropriate and should remain in effect. U.S. EPA withdrew this determination in April 2018, and the SAFE rule would replace it. Under this proposal, the average fuel economy and GHG standards for all new passenger vehicles would be 37 miles per gallon (mpg) and 240 grams per mile (g/mi), respectively. This proposal represents a significant change from current policy, which would have seen the CAFE and GHG standards tighten across this timeframe to 54.5 mpg and 163 g/mi, respectively. Additionally, the NPRM proposes withdrawing the waiver that the U.S. EPA had granted California under Section 209 of the Clean Air Act, which allows it to impose its own, stricter GHG standards on vehicles sold in the state. Thirteen other states, plus the District of Columbia, have adopted California s standards (which also include requirements for sales of zero emissions vehicles), and many of them have included these provisions in their State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). In its Proposed Regulatory Impact Analysis (PRIA), NHTSA projects that the NPRM would produce net benefits of $ billion across the lifetimes of vehicles from MY Most 5-9

32 of these net benefits come the reduced costs of freezing the CAFE and GHG standards at MY2021 levels and from reduced traffic fatalities. According to NHTSA, freezing the standards would reduce the cost of new vehicles, increasing the odds that consumers will purchase newer, safer vehicles, while also increasing the relative cost of driving those vehicles, which would reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The proposal would generate environmental costs, due to the reduction in fleet fuel economy. According to the PRIA, the proposal would increase fuel consumption by nearly 79 billion gallons for MY vehicles. This increase, in turn, would lead to the release of an additional 809 to 872 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO 2e), an increase of more than 9% by The NPRM would also increase emissions of criteria pollutants in nonattainment areas around the country. In its Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS), NHTSA estimates that emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) would increase by 7,911 tons per year, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) by 596 tons per year, sulfur dioxide (SO 2) by 10,863 tons per year, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by 23,442 tons per year through Per the DEIS, the NPRM would result in increased adverse health impacts, including an additional premature deaths and nearly 17,000 work-loss days through NOACA Air Quality staff has analyzed the local impacts of this proposal, in partnership with Cuyahoga County. Staff utilized the U.S. EPA s Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES), version 2014a to estimate GHG emissions from on-road vehicles in Cuyahoga County under the current and proposed standards. If the existing standards remained in place, the average fuel economy of the passenger vehicle fleet would improve from 21.8 mpg in 2020 to 31.9 mpg by 2040, leading to a 24.1% reduction in GHG emissions. Under the proposed freeze, fuel economy does not improve, leading to a 2.6% increase in GHG emissions across that same period. The proposal would lead to an additional 18.9 MMTCO 2e in Cuyahoga County through 2040, or just over 900,000 tons of CO 2e per year. FINANCIAL IMPACT There is no direct financial impact of this NPRM on NOACA. CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS Staff will finalize and submit comments on the rule to NHTSA and U.S. EPA before the October 23 deadline. GG/tk/7917c 5-10

33 NORTHEAST OHIO AREAWIDE COORDINATING AGENCY MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: NOACA Air Quality Subcommittee Grace Gallucci, Executive Director DATE: September 14, 2018 RE: CY 2018 Air Quality Forecast Accuracy (through August 31) ACTION REQUESTED No action requested. This item is included for information and presentation only. BACKGROUND/INFORMATION Each year, NOACA forecasts daily peak 8-hour ground-level ozone concentrations and fine particulate matter concentrations. In 2018, daily forecasts for ozone began March 1 and will conclude October 31, while daily forecasts for fine particulate matter continue year-round. NOACA posts daily air quality forecasts through AirNowTech, in affiliation with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). Verification statistics from AirNowTech show that NOACA staff categorical forecasts of fine particulate matter for CY 2018 (through August 31) were 68% accurate for the Good/Moderate threshold (12.5µm) and 100% accurate for the Moderate/Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) threshold (35µm). Verification statistics from AirNowTech show that NOACA staff categorical forecasts of ozone were slightly less accurate than those of the NOAA 6Z and 12Z model runs against the Good/Moderate threshold (50ppb) and more accurate than the NOAA model runs against the exceedance threshold (70ppb). Against the Good/Moderate threshold, NOACA staff predicted ozone levels with 75% accuracy compared to 77% accuracy for the NOAA model runs. Against the exceedance threshold, NOACA staff predicted ozone levels with 95% accuracy compared to 91% accuracy for the NOAA model runs. For 2018, NOACA staff will provide NOAA personnel forecast verification statistics on NOAA model performance throughout the ozone season (March 1-October 31). NOACA staff will also monitor its own forecast performance through verification statistics and collaborate with other forecasters to improve its forecast protocol. FINANCIAL IMPACT There is no financial impact. 5-11

34 CONCLUSION/NEXT STEPS Staff will consult with and update the Air Quality Subcommittee throughout this process. GG/jm/7918c 5-12

35 Agenda Item No. 6 OLD BUSINESS

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37 Agenda Item No. 7 NEW BUSINESS

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39 Agenda Item No. 8 ADJOURNMENT

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