The nuclear scene in Europe: current reality and future trends

Transcription

1 The nuclear scene in Europe: current reality and future trends Santiago San Antonio Director General of FORATOM UPM Summer Courses Madrid, 6 July 2009

2 FORATOM who we are? Brussels-based trade association for the nuclear energy industry in Europe: Promotes the use of nuclear energy in Europe by representing the interests t of this important t and multi-faceted t industrial i sector; - Acts as the voice of industry in energy policy discussion involving the EU institutions - Provides a bridge between the industry and the institutions (MEPs and key policy-makers in the European Commission) 2

3 FORATOM Membership: 16 National Fora 3

4 Nuclear Energy in the EU Today 150 reactors operating in 15 Member States (+ CH) = 4,600 reactor years of experience MWe installed capacity 29.5% of electricity share 15% of primary energy Nuclear power saves nearly 675 tonnes of CO 2 emissions each year equivalent to the yearly emissions from all Europe s cars 4

5 Reactor Map of Europe 5

6 Political impetus Strategic Energy Review (+ PINC) Spring Council: 20% - 20% - 20% targets European Nuclear Energy Forum (ENEF) > political endorsement > stakeholder process > nuclear central to SOS and climate change debate ENSREG > focus on safety & waste storage solutions Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNETP) > focus on R&D and Generation IV reactors Reul Report > EP endorsed nuclear s role as «largest low-carbon energy source in Europe» and «key component of EU s energy mix» 6

7 Renewed momentum for nuclear energy in EU EU Commissioners, President Barroso and vast majority of MEPs recognise the benefits of nuclear energy President Barroso: By 2020, 60% of our electricity could come from carbon-free sources (nuclear and renewables). Low-Carbon Energy Policy for EU needs to include Nuclear 7

8 Elements of the Energy Policy for Europe Sustainable Development KYOTO Competitiveness LISBON Security of supply MOSCOW 8

9 Nuclear Energy s contribution to EU s goals Nuclear is an essential part of the energy mix Nuclear supports the 3 pillars of sustainable development (social, economic and environmental) Nuclear offers a secure supply of base-load energy Plentiful uranium in politically stable countries ensures predictable and competitive prices Nuclear can reduce dependency upon energy imports Nuclear is a low CO2-emitting energy source Nuclear provides and sustains employment 9

10 Nuclear New Build in the EU France: new EPR at Flamanville online by 2012; new unit at Penly to be completed by 2017 Finland: fifth nuclear unit (EPR) operational by 2012 Romania: Cernavoda Unit 3 and 4 to be operational by 2014 and 2015 respectively (Cernavoda 2 operational since October 2007) Bulgaria: two reactors at Belene to be operational by 2014 and 2015 Slovakia: two additional units at Mochovce site by 2012 and 2013 and 1 under discussion for Bohunice 10

11 Planned nuclear units in the EU UK: New nuclear fleet (11 potential sites selected) Italy: agreement with France to build NPPs construction of first EPR to start in 2013 Poland: first NPP planned to go online in 2021 Baltic States : Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia joint venture to build new NPP at Ignalina, online by 2015 Slovenia, Hungary, Czech Republic: further nuclear units are under consideration. PAKS NPP in Hungary to double its capacity by

12 Nuclear phase-out/moratoria Phase-out policy to be reversed in Sweden and Italy Phase-out policies persist: - in Belgium: but a big information campaign was recently launched by the industry; there are talks about reversing the phase-out policy among some political stakeholders but no decision has been taken - in Germany: reassessment of Germany's nuclear phase-out policy possible after September 2009 Federal elections 12

13 Public Acceptance Public opinion i on nuclear has evolved favourably Results of EC s latest Eurobarometer Survey on Waste: - Almost as many EU citizens in favour of nuclear (44%) as against (45%). In 2005 = 37% for and 55% against - 64% of EU citizens believe nuclear helps diversify energy sources - 63% believe more nuclear would reduce dependency upon oil - 62% agree nuclear produces less GHG emissions than coal or oil Knowledge is the key: the more people know about nuclear, the more they are in favour (e.g. in Sweden, Finland, Netherlands) Increased nuclear capacity = usually Increased acceptance > UK (+6%) and Italy (+ 13%) 13

14 Radioactive Waste Management Hungary Sweden Czech Rep. Lithuania Finland Slovak Rep. France Netherlands Belgium United Kingdom Share of positive public attitude [%] Slovenia Estonia Latvia Germany EU-Average Luxemburg Italy Denmark Poland Portugal Malta Spain Ireland Cyprus Greece Austria Change in public acceptance if RW issue was solved EU member countries Public acceptance of nuclear energy in countries with operating NPPs if RW issue was solved; Initial public acceptance of nuclear energy in countries with operating NPPs; Public acceptance of nuclear energy in countries without operating NPPs if RW issue was solved; Initial public acceptance of nuclear energy in countries without operating NPPs; and EU average. 14

15 Nuclear energy s contribution to carbon avoidance in the EU In the EU as a whole, the use of nuclear energy avoids up to 675 million tonnes of CO 2eq per year 2eq p GHG emissions from electricity ygeneration would rise by 53% if there was no nuclear contribution This amount is comparable to the emissions from the entire passenger car fleet (212 million) in the EU By comparison, the EU has a GHG emission reduction target of 446 million tonnes of CO 2eq below 1990 level by q 15

16 Nuclear Energy and Competitiveness Nuclear electricity is more competitive than electricity from fossil fuels (OECD), even without carbon tariff Any rise in uranium prices has only a minor impact on the cost of nuclear electricity A 50% increase in uranium, coal and gas prices would make nuclear generating costs increase by 3%, coal generating costs by 20% and CCGT generating costs by 38% The cost of nuclear electricity is stable and predictable Most nuclear power plants operate continuously as a base load with very high capacity factors 16

17 Uranium Production (2004) USA 2% Uzbekistan 5% Namibia 8% South Africa 2% Ukraine 2% Others China 3% 2% Canada 29% Niger 8% Russia 8% Kazakhstan 9% Australia 22% So ource: NEA & IA AEA

18 efits of Nuclear Energy, 2007 and Nuclear Ene ergy Outlook, Source: Risks and Ben Lifetime of uranium resources (years) Technology Identified resources ~5.5 MtU Total conventional resources ~16.0 MtU Total conventional resources plus phosphates up to 38 MtU LWRs once through Progressive introduction of FBRs* > > > * Here it is assumed that the progressive introduction of fast breeder reactors (FBRs) multiplies by > 30 the amount of electricity generated by 1 tonne of uranium. 18

19 The Key European Nuclear Initiatives ENSREG (previously High Level Group on Nuclear Safety and Waste Management) European Nuclear Energy Forum (ENEF) EU Nuclear Strategy Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNE-TP) 19

20 ENEF Structure Competitiveness (electricity price) Opportunities Financing models (new build) Legal roadmap (licensing harmonisation) Safety harmonisation (recommendation) Risks Waste disposal (repositories) Training and education Non-proliferation Transparency Core Group Better Information & Communication Developing an appropriate consultative process (Aarhus Convention) 20

21 Added value of ENEF process Stakeholders involvement in designing stable and not politicallyconditioned low-carbon energy policy with nuclear playing an important role Dialogue beyond the nuclear community Provide a channel to help shaping future EU nuclear legislation (safely, waste, decommisisoning, licensing, transport, liability...) The word nuclear is not a taboo anymore ENEF: - Prepares factual information - Promotes increased transparency - Demonstrates availability of technical solutions in areas of public concern, such as waste 21

22 Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNE-TP) Stakeholder dialogue: 71 organisations involved Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) WG > Final Draft available Education, Training and Knowledge WG Deployment Strategy (DS) WG > Draft available Utilities Document > utilities R&D priorities up to 2050 FP7 funding approved for SNETP Secretariat Industrial Initiative as part of SET-Plan (fast reactor demonstrators, closed fuel cycle) 22

23 Generation IV Technology Road Map 23

24 The Six Generation IV Nuclear Systems Sodium Fast Reactor Lead Fast Reactor Gas Fast Reactor Very High Temperature Reactor Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor Molten Salt Reactor 24

25 Main policy issues for Nuclear legal roadmap: Nuclear Safety Directive e adopted Revision of Basic Safety Standards Directive (ongoing) Waste Management Directive (expected in 2010) Consolidation of radioactive materials transport directives (ongoing) Decommissioning Financing (expert group will finalise it s work in early 2010) Nuclear liability (end 2010) Security/non-proliferation (end 2010) 25

26 Conclusions Nuclear power has become an important part of the EU energy debate as climate change and security of supply concerns are focussing attention on energy choices Public concerns about nuclear energy are recognised and need to be addressed openly and honestly ENEF is one of the significant sg platforms for this debate The renewed interest in nuclear energy is clearly visible in Brussels and in the EU Member States 26

27 Thank you for your attention! 27