CAEP Modelling of the new nvpm standard. Bethan Owen Manchester Metropolitan University, UK

Transcription

1 CAEP Modelling of the new nvpm standard Bethan Owen Manchester Metropolitan University, UK

2 Introduction Impacts of nvpm on Air Quality and Global Climate from CAEP Impacts and Science Group (ISG) reports provided the scientific foundation for the standard ISG workshop (Feb 2015) highlighted the need for detailed quality nvpm mass and number emission indices [including derived indices for cruise and particle size information] for the modellers

3 The ICAO/CAEP remit: To develop an aircraft engine based LTO nvpm mass and number standard for turbofan/turbojet engines 26.7kN By CAEP/11 (Feb 2019)

4 ICAO-CAEP/11 Modelling for the nvpm standard Conduct policy option analyses of the environmental benefits and interdependencies of a potential nvpm standard as directed by CAEP. 4

5 Other related CAEP/11 nvpm tasks (i.e. not the standard) Develop improved nvpm model inputs to both local air quality models and, as required, global climate models per advice from ISG. Model Evaluation and Updates - Ability to model nvpm over the full flight regime (in conjunction with WG3) updates for each SG, report in CAEP11 Note input from ISG on nvpm impacts.

6 ICAO-CAEP/11 CEA Modelling for nvpm Standard Joint effort from 3 CAEP technical groups to provide CEA report to CAEP Members for their decision and recommendation at the CAEP/11 Meeting in Feb 2019: WG3 (Emissions) and its PMTG - Particulate Matter Task Group MDG Modelling and Database Group FESG Forecasting and Economic Sub-Group MF3

7 WG3/PMTG development of the standard under the CAEP/11 work programme includes: Provision of representative engine data for assessing the nvpm emissions standard for mass and number regarding turbofan/turbojet engines 26.7kN by February Recommendations on technology responses, stringency options and applicability [new types and inproduction] to Steering Group 2017 (Sept 2017).

8 WG3/PMTG Stringency Options & Technical Responses by Sept 2017 First requires WG3 PMTG to decide a the metric for the standard Once a metric for the new nvpm standard is decided, stringency options (SO) will be determined by WG3 For each engine, WG3 will then determine a Technical Response (TR) associated with each SO and applicability in terms of PASS/FAIL/ FIX. Metric Engine Engine Correlating Parameter 8

9 MDG development of the standard under the CAEP/11 work programme includes Conduct a review of lessons to be learned from prior analyses, with a view toward improving the process for future analyses. This should include an identification of gaps in analysis assumptions, databases and tools by SG2016 (Nov 2016). nvpm Standard: Conduct sample problem and policy option analyses of the environmental benefits and interdependencies of a potential nvpm standard as directed by CAEP and SG. In cooperation with other CAEP WG's. CEA final report by CAEP/11

10 FESG development of the standard under the CAEP/11 work programme includes Conduct a review of lessons to be learned from prior analyses, with a view toward improving the process for future economic assessment of stringency options by SG2016 (Nov 2016). Review fleet forecast assumptions and underlying economic assumptions by SG2018 (June 2018) nvpm Standard: Conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis of the potential particulate matter (nvpm) policy options under consideration for CAEP/11 (Feb 2019)

11 MODELLING ASSUMPTIONS IN CAEP CEA

12 Comparative Analysis for CAEP CEA If a similar approach is taken to previous CAEP analyses (noting the CAEP/11 work items for MDG/ FESG to review current CEA assumptions) the results of the CEA would be relative, with a pair-wise comparison: The Baseline represents the case where no certification exists A Standard Stringency Scenario i.e. with a nvpm standard and an associated stringency level

13 CAEP nvpm Cost Effectiveness Analysis CAEP G&Rdb CAEP COD Base Year 2012? & C-H db Fleet Model Aircraft assignment tool CAEP WG3 Stringency Options and Technical Response Data (PASS/FAIL/FIX) Future Fleet & Operations CAEP WG3 nvpmdb CAEP MDG Emissions Models (+ noise) nvpm emissions CAEP FESG Traffic Demand CAEP WG3 Tech Response Cost Assumptions and FESG cost inputs FESG Cost Model Key: Input Tool Output **Cost Effectiveness**

14 Previous CAEP-CEA Modelling New Type and In-Production Applicability modelling: A market-driven response to stringency with a New Type standard has generally been assumed in previous CAEP-CEA. Noting the sensitivity analyses undertaken for the CO2 standard CEA in CAEP/10, for New Type and In-Production Applicability. 14

15 Case 1 in CO2 analysis Full Technology Response / Out of Production Case (Case-1) Case-1 is an analysis of stringency options using all technology responses (TR) defined by WG3/WG1 and aircraft are assumed to go out of production at the implementation dates if they cannot be made compliant to a stringency option level. The same Case-1 fleet evolution and environmental model results will inform both CO 2 standard application to new types (NT) and in-production types (INP).

16 Case-4 in CO2 analysis NewType(NT)-Only: Alternative Response / Production Case: Analysis of SG-agreed stringency options at agreed implementation date(s) for NT-only applicability using responses informed by market considerations since manufacturers would not have a legal deadline be legally bound to bring INP types to levels required under an NT-only standard. Thus, although an aircraft may be technically eligible for response, in practice market forces could influence the manufacturer to not have some aircraft types respond; for example, when the costs to respond outweigh the benefits generated by the improvements.

17 Vital New Inputs to CAEP-CEA Modelling for nvpm Standard nvpm Emission Indices in terms of mass and number will be used by the modellers to determine the relative nvpm LTO emissions under scenarios with and without a standard at a specified stringency 17

18 The CAEP nvpm database To inform nvpm emissions modelling for aircraft with large engines, a database is under development which will be populated with values for 24 representative engines. Some of those representative engines will be used to calculate and estimate other in-production engines. Estimates for engines on project aeroplanes will be provided by the manufacturers. The nvpmvdb will provide landing and take-off (LTO) points for mass and number, maximum values, ambient conditions and a correction factor for particle losses to correct certified values to engine exit plane values for modelling. For other large engines in service but not in production, the FOA3 method (updated) will be used to estimate EI_nvPM.

19 Other critical inputs to the CEA WG3/PMTG stringency scenarios and applicability by Sept 2017 WG3/PMTG Technology Responses to Stringency (Pass/Fail/Fix) by Sept 2017 WG3/PMTG associated cost assumptions FESG Future fleet and operations (plus market response and applicability considerations) by June 2018 Critical outputs MDG nvpm modelling updates (plus interdependencies, fuel burn, NOx etc) by CAEP11 (Feb 2019) FESG cost modelling by CAEP11 (Feb 2019)

20 European CAEP approved models GHG Emissions including LTO & full flight nvpm Eurocontrol AEM-IMPACT UK DfT/MMU FAST LAQ Dispersion Models Eurocontonrol OpenALAQs UKDfT ADMS?? FOCA and BMVBS Lasport Fleet Assignment Tool Eurocontrol Aircraft Assignment Tool (AAT)

21 Summary and Conclusions To develop and undertake a full CEA of the new nvpm LTO standard for aircraft engines by Feb 2019 A demanding timetable to allow all necessary inputs to be developed and reviewed

22 Thank you!