Scenarios for a Lower-Carbon World

Transcription

1 Dmitrii Bogdanov and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology 41 st IAEE International Conference Groningen, June 10-13, 2018

2 COP21 Agreement in Paris: Net Zero Emissions Country pledges for 2030 source: Rogelj et al nature climate change, online Kriegler et al., Global Environmental Change, 42, Key insights: Reference scenarios equal ºC relative to pre-industrial age Country pledges for 2030 (equal to about 3ºC) are not consistent with targets of the Paris Agreement The RCP1.9 scenarios target the range of ºC, AND mean net zero emissions in mid-2050s massive CO 2 removal from the ecosystem from 2050 onwards (starting in 2040s) 2

3 Origin of GHG emissions 3 Key insights: Net zero emissions is mandatory for ALL GHG emissions To achieve net zero for the agricultural sector and land use changes is outstanding difficult Consequence 1: all energy sectors (Power, Heat, Transportation, Industry) HAVE to go to zero Consequence 2: all usage of fossil coal, oil, gas needs to be stopped Scientific debate on negative emission technologies is intensifying Afforestation may have a strong impact as constraint AND opportunity

4 Key rationale for Renewables: Efficiency 4 source: Brown et al., Response to Burden of proof, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 92,

5 False myths on 100% RE Key insights In one of the top leading Energy journals an article got published in 2017 claiming several myths on 100% RE, concluding, it will be not feasible and not viable A response of internationally leading researchers in the field from Germany, the Netherlands, South Africa, Denmark, and LUT debunked the myths Major role of solar PV is highlighted A parallel press release got huge social media echo at Twitter and the leading online media all reported (pv magazine, CleanTechnica, etc.) Source: Brown T. W., Bischof-Niemz T., Blok K., Breyer Ch., Lund H., Mathiesen B.V., Response to Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewableelectricity systems, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 92, , DOI: /j.rser

6 LUT Energy System Transition model The technologies applied for the energy system optimisation include those for electricity generation, energy storage and electricity transmission The model is applied at full hourly resolution for an entire year The LUT model will be expanded to all energy sectors for a follow-up study 6 source: Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016; Breyer, Bogdanov et al., 2017

7 100% RE Scenarios: Country to Global 7 Breyer et al., 100% RE articles in journals Plessmann et al J Global, ON Moeller et al J Berlin-Brandenburg, ON Bogdanov & Breyer 2015 J Northeast Asia, ON Bogdanov & Breyer 2016 J Northeast Asia, improved, ON Child & Breyer 2016 J Finland, ON Barbosa et al J Brazil, ON Gulagi et al J Southeast Asia, ON Barbosa et al J South America, ON Breyer et al J Global, ON Gulagi et al J East Asia, ON Aghahosseini et al J North America, ON Gulagi et al J India/ SAARC, ON Caldera et al J Saudi Arabia, ET Ghorbani et al J Iran, ET Child et al J Ukraine, ET Gulagi et al J India, ET Child et al J Åland, ON Gulagi et al J India, monsoon, ET Caldera et al J Saudi Arabia, water, ET Kilickaplan et al J Turkey, ET Breyer et al J Global, ET Barasa et al J Sub-Saharan Africa, ON Aghahosseini et al J Iran, ON Sadiqa et al J Pakistan, ET Meschede et al J La Gomera, ON Caldera & Breyer 2018 J Saudi Arabia, desalination, ET Bogdanov et al J Northeast Asia, ET, accepted Oyewo et al J Sub-Saharan Africa, Grand Inga, ON Solomon et al J Israel, ET Breyer et al., related topics, articles in journals Blechinger et al J Islands Breyer et al J PtX: PtG value chains Breyer et al J CO 2 reduction benefits Cader et al J off-grid: PV-battery-diesel Caldera et al J PtX: RE-based desalination Görig & Breyer 2016 J Energetic learning curves of PV Blechinger et al J Islands Koskinen & Breyer 2016 J Storage in global scenarios Fasihi et al J PtX: power-to-liquids Afanasyeva et al J Battery and hybrid PV plants Breyer et al J Rebalancing within limits of Earth Farfan & Breyer 2017 J Global power plant databasis Raugei et al J EROI of PV systems Fasihi et al J PtX: Hydrocarbons from Maghreb Child & Breyer 2017 J Transition and Transformation Breyer et al J CSP vs hybrid PV-battery plants Solomon et al J Storage demand Bertheau et al J Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa Caldera & Breyer 2017 J PtX: RO desalination learning curve Horvath et al J Defossiliated marine sector Azzuni & Breyer 2018 J Energy security Child et al J Sustainability guardrails in scenarios Brown et al J Review on feasibility of 100% RE Abbreviations: OverNight scenario (ON), Energy Transition scenario (ET), peerreviewed journal publication (J)

8 100% RE Global Power System The modelling by the Lappeenranta University of Technology as of 2017 is the only one to run at full hourly resolution on a global-local scale. Real weather data were used for assessing the solar, wind and hydro resources. By 2050, the world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by source: Breyer et al., Solar PV Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics; Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

9 Electricity Generation in 2015 and In 2050, solar PV accounts for 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix globally. Gas generation is only from renewable energy based gas (bio-methane and power-to-gas) Nuclear power still accounts for negligible 0.3% of the total electricity generation, due to the end of its assumed technical life, but could be phased out earlier. source: Breyer et al., Solar PV Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics; Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

10 Regional Variation Solar PV and Wind Solar PV is the dominating source of electricity in the Sun Belt Wind energy is very important in the North In regions of less solar PV and wind energy the contribution of hydropower is excellent 10 source: Breyer et al., Solar PV Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics; Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

11 Electricity Storage Output in 2015 and 2050 Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly diurnal storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage. 11 source: Breyer et al., Solar PV Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics; Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

12 Storage Supply Shares in 2050 Battery storage mainly plays a role in providing diurnal storage with around 31% of the total supply Gas storage mainly plays a role in providing seasonal storage with just 2% of total supply (1% from synthetic natural gas and 1% from bio-methane both RE-based) Prosumers play a significant role and hence a large portion of batteries can be observed in 2050, also with low costs of solar PV and batteries 12 source: Breyer et al., Solar PV Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics; Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

13 Electricity System Cost during Transition Key insights: The global power system LCOE remains stable for the first periods, showing a gradual decline from 70 /MWh to 59 /MWh from 2015 to 2040, including all generation, storage, curtailment and parts of the grid costs Beyond 2040 the LCOE further declines to 52 /MWh by 2050, signifying that larger capacities of RE addition result in reduction of energy costs After an initial increase, the investment requirements decline after 2030 to stabilise between 2040 to source: Breyer et al., Solar PV Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics; Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

14 100% Renewables reduce GHG Emissions to zero Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO 2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. 14 source: Ram et al., Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy - Power Sector, report

15 Heat: Case of Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Central Asian republic with energy intensive industry and harsh continental climate Key insights: Defossilisation of the Heat sector is more challenging For countries with cold climate it will result in substantial increase of the power capacities For countries with strong climate seasonal variations role of storage will further increase Heat will become the valuable product with LCOH close to LCOE Even in the worst case countries defossilisation of Heat sector can be accomplished 15

16 Transportation [mil t km] [mil p km] Final energy demand [TWh] Final transport freight demand years Road Rail Aviation Marine Final transport passenger demand Road Rail Aviation Marine Final energy demand for transport electricity direct hydrogen methane liquid fuels Key insights Entire transport sector to be defossiliated Road and Rail can be strongly directly electrified Marine and Aviation almost impossible to directly electrify Ships up to 100 km, planes up to km could be electrified in the decades to come Transportation demand can be electrified, partly indirectly Electrification of transport results in lower final energy consumption even for 3 times higher transportation demand Total energy demand dominated by marine and aviation PV demand for transportation of about 19 TWp in 2050 (35% - direct, 25% - H 2, 7% CH 4, 33% - FT-fuels [10,800 TWh fuel ]) FT-fuels production also leads to 2.6 TWp naphtha share equalling ~ 14% of total global chemicals feedstock demand 16 source: Breyer Ch., et al., Solar PV Demand for a full sustainable Mobility Sector How to fulfil the Paris Agreement by 2050, WCPEC-7, accepted

17 RE-based desalination: Clean water for all Key insights: Clean water for all is no wishful thinking Water crisis is rather a management failure than a techno-economic issue Water transportation is bigger issue than energy consumption of desalination 17 source: Caldera U. et al., Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: A global estimate, Desalination, 385,

18 From carbon neutral to carbon negative Future CC+U options Fundamental insights: Net emissions to be zero, hence fossil fuels CCU routes are finally not allowed, given the fact that 10+ Gt CO2 /a have to be removed from the ecosphere in 2050s for 2ºC target Fossil routes are only allowed, if NO technical option available (maybe limestone for cement) source: NCE, Final report Sustainable/ unavoidable CO 2 sources: Cement mills (part of limestone) Waste incinerators/ Waste-to-Energy plants Pulp & Paper plants Waste water treatment plants / biogas+h 2 upgrade Biofuel production (most will be not able to compete with electricity based synfuels, maybe except ethanol in Brazil) CO 2 direct air capture (maybe CO 2 seawater capture) Today s CO 2 sources diminished for net zero emissions Coal power plants (not needed anymore) Steel & Iron (to be switched to H 2 for reduction process) Refineries for fossil fuels (not needed anymore) 18

19 Carbon neutral fuels Patagonia, Somalia, Western Sahara and the coasts of Australia and Brazil produce the cheapest methanol within the range of /ton. DME production cost is about /ton more expensive for each site, depending on the corresponding LCOE. The difference in ammonia production cost at coast and remote areas is smaller than the methanol case, due to lower transmission line cost assumption 19 source: Fasihi M. and Breyer Ch., Synthetic Methanol and Dimethyl Ether Production based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants, 11th IRES, Düsseldorf, March 14-16

20 PtX Cost of Power-to-Fuel/Chemical Options Range of fossil fuels For conditions in Patagonia SNG and PtG-GtL are the cheapest and the most expensive synthetic fuel, respectively. the production cost of RE-diesel, RE-methanol and RE-DME are close to each other, however the fuel-parity (cost competitiveness) depends on their respective market price and CO 2 emission cost. Sensitivities (rough rules of thumb): -10% of RE capex: -6% of output fuel/chemicals cost -10%rel of WACC: -5% of output fuel/chemicals cost (5% WACC: -15% of output cost) 20

21 CO 2 Direct Removal (CDR) source: Breyer Ch., et al., CO2 Direct Air Capture for effective Climate 21 Change Mitigation: A new Type of Energy System Sector Coupling, Int. Conf. Dmitrii on Bogdanov Negative CO2 Emissions, Dmitrii.Bogdanov@lut.fi Gothenburg, May Key insights Sector has to start around 2040 and massively scale in 2050s for fulfilling the Paris Agreement Key options: BECCS (favoured by IAMs), DACCS (real world option), afforestation Most likely further conversion from CO 2 to solid compounds needed Learning rate of CO 2 DACCS is expected to be between 10% - 15% PV demand for CO 2 removal of 2.5 TWp by 2050 Latest insights: /t CO2 by 2050

22 Sgouridis et al., Key insights: Sgouridis et al. (2016) represents one of the very few peer-reviewed global near 100% RE transition studies (more nuclear than today assumed) Unrealistic fast ramping of RE assumed Annual supply and demand is matched, hence no consideration of flexibility options Substantial CSP share rather unrealistic Shift-to-power megatrend is a scenario baseline Compatible to the Paris Agreement TPED decline in second half of 21st century is highly unrealistic Focus on net-energy pathways 22 source: Sgouridis S., et al., The sower s way: quantifying the narrowing net-energy pathways to a global energy transition, Environmental Research Letters, 11,

23 Jacobson et al., Key insights: Jacobson et al. (2017) represents one of the very few peer-reviewed global 100% RE transition studies high energy efficiency gain due to thermal plant phase-out is highlighted the methodology is highly improvable, since only an annual match of supply and demand is done 23 source: Jacobson M.Z., et al., % Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, Joule 1, 1 14

24 Summary Climate Change forces a drastic and fast change of the energy system All sectors should be affected, even thought for some full defossilation is not possible Renewable energy and electrification of all sectors is the key to lower-carbon future Key technologies of the future: solar PV, wind energy, batteries, PtX (incl. CCU) PV energy supply share of about 70% seems reasonable Modelling in high temporal (hourly) and spatial resolution is key for new insights Electrification of almost all energy sectors is possible, including fuels, chemicals, materials ~80 TWp total PV demand by 2050 seems to be a possible future 24

25 Thank you for your attention and to the team! all publications at: new publications also announced via

26 PV Capacity Expectations in Major Reports LUT E[R] AE[R] BNEF Roadmap Ref Case REmap 2DS hi-ren NPS 450 [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] Key insights: Greenpeace and BNEF had been close to real numbers in the past 10 years leading reports show 2-3 times higher numbers than IEA WEO for 2030 and 2040 IEA WEO is lagging behind due to assuming wrong growth LUT results are far beyond the major reports sources: Breyer Ch., Comments on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, WEC Finland's breakfast meeting: IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, Helsinki, November 23 Metayer et al., source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA

27 Transportation Key insights Entire transport sector to be defossiliated Road and Rail can be strongly directly electrified Marine and Aviation almost impossible to directly electrify Ships up to 100 km, planes up to km could be electrified in the decades to come Transportation demand can be electrified, partly indirectly Electrification of transport results in lower final energy consumption even for 3 times higher transportation demand Total energy demand dominated by marine and aviation PV demand for transportation of about 19 TWp in 2050 (35% - direct, 25% - H 2, 7% CH 4, 33% - FT-fuels [10,800 TWh fuel ]) FT-fuels production also leads to 2.6 TWp naphtha share equalling ~ 14% of total global chemicals feedstock demand 27 source: Breyer Ch., et al., Solar PV Demand for a full sustainable Mobility Sector How to fulfil the Paris Agreement by 2050, WCPEC-7, accepted