Climate Change Vulnerability & Adap5ve Capacity Assessment: Example from Ka ūpūlehu ahupua a - Hawai i Island

Transcription

1 Climate Change Vulnerability & Adap5ve Capacity Assessment: Example from Ka ūpūlehu ahupua a - Hawai i Island Alex Frost Graduate Student University of Hawaii Department of Urban and Regional Planning & University of Hawaii Economic Research Organiza5on (UHERO)

2 Project Background (NSF Part II) Ques5ons: What combina5on of land- uses prac5ces best enhance social- ecological resilience under different climate change scenarios? a) What are the past, current and future (poten3al) land uses/cover? b) What are the op3mal land/ocean use scenarios in the face of climate change? Loca5ons: Ha ena Kauai Island Ka ūpūlehu Hawai i (big) Island Kubulau - Vanua Levu

3 Project Loca+on Hawai i Island Hawaii (Big) Island (10,430km2) North Kona District (pop: 37,875) 33% popula+on growth from Kaupulehu ahupua a (pop: 614) Hawai i

4 Ka ūpūlehu ahupua a 16,000+ acres (64 km2) on the slopes of Hualalai Volcano Sea level to 8,271 d/2,521m Forest, grass plains, lava fields, anchialine ponds, reefs, golf courses, luxury resorts and residences No perennial streams Single owner: Kamehameha Schools/Bishop Estate 70+ species of plants with more than half introduced: 15 indigenous 11 endemic

5 Climate Trend increasing temperature (Hawai i Island Data) Country: United States Reference Location: N, W 10 year moving average with 95% uncertainty range 12 month moving average Nearby City: Hilo Mean Temperature ( C ) Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature

6 Climate Trend Decreasing Rainfall 2.50 Kaupulehu Annual Rainfall - Kona Village Inches Year Source: Giambelluca, T. W., Chen, Q., Frazier, A. G., Price, J.P., Chen, Y.L., Chu, P.S., Eischeid, J., et al. (2011). The rainfall atlas of Hawaii. Retrieved from rainfall.geography.hawaii.edu

7 Local Observa+on/Knowledge Maybe this is why we re losing all this weather, because all these trees are not here anymore. It s not good sign when you see the green limu (seaweed), because it means there s a lot of stuff in the water About 6-7 years ago it rained up mauka (upland) almost the whole year, since then the weather has changed. I think the impact on these resources has changed because before it was for our sustenance. Today it s to make money. Source: Heather McMillen

8 Mauka Upland Characteris+cs One of the last remaining areas of tropical dry forest is in Ka ūpūlehu, but it faces many threats: 90% of the dry forests in the Hawai ian Islands have been eliminated (Cabin et al.,2004) Fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum), which fuels wildfires; Ungulates, which destroy plants and increase fountain grass habitat; Rodents, which eat the seeds and seedlings of na5ve plants, preven5ng regenera5on; Insect preda5on and other alien plant species; and Climate change.

9 Makai - Ocean & Coastal Characteris+c Designated FRA (1999) Between 1992 to 1998 decline in fish abundance (41%) & fish diversity (26%) Decline of coral cover from % in 2003 to % in 2011 (UH, 1999: NOAA, 2013) Between 1998 to 2012 increased density of certain aquarium & food fish

10 Challenges facing Ka ūpūlehu s unique marine and terrestrial ecosystems: Increasing numbers of invasive species Decreasing acreage of dry tropical forests Decreasing coral reef covers Poten+al loss of fish popula+on and density from aquarium, recrea+onal, and commercial fishing; Increasing pollu+on, drought and fires; Poten+al loss of cultural assets, achialine ponds, endangered species, from sea level rise & other climate change impacts

11 Opportuni+es - Strong Adap+ve Capacity in Ka ūpūlehu Adap5ve Capacity = Resource Availability in realms of: Economic, Environmental, Governance, Social, Technology & Infrastructure to prepare and change. Social Focus: Heavy ci+zen involvement with mul+ple community organiza+ons working on conserva+on, restora+on and regenera+on of various ahupua a sub- systems, for example: The Nature Conservancy Ka ūpūlehu Marine Life Advisory Commijee West Hawai i Fisheries Council State of Hawai i DLNR Tourism - Four Seasons Resort & Dive Operators North Kona Dryland Forest Working Group Residence and Cultural Prac++oners Kamehameha School and Youth County of Hawai i and others

12 Next Step - Climate Adapta+on Planning Process Research: Historical Timelines & Observa5ons Climate Data Local Ecological Knowledge (interviews) Land Use (including governance & ownership) Terrestrial Ecosystem Characteris5cs Community Engagement, Scenarios & Model Development Stakeholder Gathering Climate Change Projec5on Land/Ocean Management Scenario Recommenda5on for Social- Ecological Resilience Policy (Gov/Private) Resource Conserva5on, Management & Governance Strategy (Private, CBO, Gov) Marine Ecosystem Characteris5cs Evaluate Ecological & Economic Outcome Publica5ons & Future Research January 2014 December 2015

13 Pau ~ Thanks for Listening! Ques5ons? Acknowledgment Na5onal Science Founda5on and Project Team: Tamara Tick5n, Heather McMillen, Allen Friedlander, Kim Burner, Tom Giambelluca Stacy Jupitor, Lisa Mandle, Pua ala Pascua, Natalie Kurashima, Rachel Dacks, Cheryl Scarton, Shimona Quazi, Jonatha Giddens and many more folks Alex Frost Graduate Student University of Hawaii Department of Urban and Regional Planning & University of Hawaii Economic Research Organiza5on (UHERO)