Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group

Transcription

1 Heat Roadmap Europe David Connolly Associate Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University, Denmark

2 Sustainable Energy Planning Research Group PROFESSOR PROFESSOR PROFESSOR ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ASSISTANT PROFESSOR Henrik Lund Frede Hvelplund Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østegaard David Connolly Karl Sperling Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen PHD FELLOW PHD FELLOW PHD FELLOW PHD FELLOW PHD FELLOW PHD FELLOW PHD FELLOW RESEARCH ASSISTANT RESEARCH ASSISTANT Iva Ridjan Peter Sorknæs Rasmus Lund Søren Djørup Lars Grundahl Rasmus Aaen Jakob Zinck Thellufsen Dave Maya-Drysdale Kenneth Hansen PART-TIME LECTURER EXTERNAL LECTURER EXTERNAL LECTURER PROFESSOR* HEAD OF DIVISION ACADEMIC OFFICER ACADEMIC OFFICER Pil Seok Kwon Anders N. Andersen Thomas Sørensen Peter Karnøe *Associate member of the group Annelle Riberholt Mette Reiche Sørensen Pernille Sylvest Andersen

3 What do we do? Energy Planning (Theories, Methodologies, Tools, Analyses, Case studies and Proposals) Energy System Analysis (incl. GIS) Feasibility Studies Public Regulation

4 Smart Energy System

5 EnergyPLAN: Version 12 ( d Hourly Modelling of Electricity, Heating, Cooling, Industry, and Transport

6 600 Registered Users since 1 st Feb! visitors/month Switzerland

7 What are we missing in the future? Resources Conversion Exchange and Combustion Storage Engines Demand Power Exchange Mobility Electricity Fossil Fuels Power Plants Cooling Heat-Only Boilers Heating

8 Not Only Fuel, but also Energy Storage! Resources Conversion Exchange and Combustion Storage Engines Demand Power Exchange Mobility Electricity Fossil Fuels Power Plants Cooling Heat-Only Boilers Heating

9 Scale of Energy Storage in Denmark Danish Oil Storage ~50 TWh Electricity = 170/kWh Thermal = 0.5-3/kWh Gas = 0.05/kWh Oil = 0.02/kWh Annual Danish Electricity Demand ~35 TWh Thermal Storage ~65 GWh? Danish Gas Storage ~11 TWh

10 Smart Energy System (80% Wind/Solar) Resources Conversion Exchange and Combustion Storage Engines Demand Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Electrofuel Power Exchange Mobility (Vehicles) EVs Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage Fuels CHP (or Quad) Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat

11 The New Heat Sector Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Engines & Motors Demand Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Synthetic Fuel Power Exchange Mobility (Vehicles) Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage Fuels CHP (or Quad) Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat

12 STUDY STUDY FOR FOR THE THE EU27 EU27 by Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Halmstad University Urban Persson Daniel Nilsson Sven Werner Ecofys Germany GmbH Jan Grözinger Thosmas Boersmans Michelle Bosquet PlanEnergi Daniel Trier for

13 Two Reports & One Ongoing: Heat Roadmap Europe Study 1 (2012): is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenario Study 2 (2013): is DHC beneficial in a lowheat demand scenario (a complete heat strategy) Study 3 (2014, IEE/13/650/SI ): heating and cooling strategies for 5 member states

14 3 Options for the Heat Sector

15 3 Options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings (Everywhere) Reduce our demand for heat: Space heating Hot water

16 How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Heat Savings ( /kwh) Amount of Savings (TWh)

17 How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings Cost of Heat Savings ( /kwh) Cost of Supplying Heat Amount of Savings (%)

18 How much Heat should we Save? We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings 30-50% Cost of Heat Savings ( /kwh) Cost of Supplying Heat Amount of Savings (%)

19 3 Options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings (Everywhere) Reduce our demand for heat: Space heating Hot water 2. Individual Units (Everywhere) Use a heating unit in each building: Boilers: Oil Biomass Heat Pumps Electric Heating

20 2. Individual Heating Options Heating Unit Sustainable Resources Efficient Cost Cost Sensitivity Electric Heating Heat Pumps Oil Boilers Biomass Boilers

21 3 Options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings (Everywhere) Reduce our demand for heat: Space heating Hot water 2. Individual Units (Everywhere) Use a heating unit in each building: Boilers: Oil Biomass Heat Pumps Electric Heating 3. Networks (Urban Areas) Share a heating network: Gas Grid Water (i.e. district heating)

22 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings Reduce our demand for heat: Space heating Hot water 2. Individual Units Use a heating unit in each building: Oil Biomass Heat Pumps Electric Heating 3. Networks Share a heating network: Gas Grid Water (i.e. district heating) 30-50% Marginal ~50% Heat Pumps ~50% District Heating

23

24 1. District Heating is only for Cold Parts of Europe 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for a Local Problem 3. District Heating is Expensive and How can I investigate these for my country?

25 1. District Heating is for only for Cold Parts of Europe

26 European Heating Index (Source: ecoheatcool) +/- 20%

27 European Heating Index (Source: ecoheatcool) +/- 20%

28 EU Heat Atlas 30-50% of Heat Currently Feasible for DH

29 EU Cooling Atlas Spring 2015

30 EU Cooling Demand

31 District Cooling in Europe

32 Applying this Methodology at MS Level Mapping Data can be extracted at MS level Heat Demands Cooling Demands (after STRATEGO) Renewable Heat Potentials Some potentials already extracted in HRE: Heat Demand Power plant surplus heat Industrial surplus heat Waste incineration STRATEGO: Static data already provided online: Interactive maps being developed. Delivery date: Spring 2015 Heat Demand at MS Level

33 HRE Heat Atlas at a Local Level

34 HRE Mapping: Best Places to Start District Heating in the EU

35 Surplus Heat in Different MS

36 GIS Mapping: Many Heat Sources Heating and Cooling Demands Power and Heat Generation Waste Incineration Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermal Bioenergy Potential

37 Interactive Online Maps

38 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for a Local Problem

39 Today s Heat Sector Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Demand Engines Power Exchange Mobility Electricity Fuels Power Plants Cooling Heat-Only Boilers Heating

40 The New Heat Sector Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Engines & Motors Demand Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Synthetic Fuel Power Exchange Mobility (Vehicles) Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage Fuels CHP (or Quad) Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat

41 Integrating 40% Wind Power with District Heating Resources Conversion Relocation Exchange and Storage Engines & Motors Demand Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Synthetic Fuel Power Exchange Mobility (Vehicles) Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage Fuels CHP (or Quad) Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat

42 Denmark 50% Wind for December 2013

43 (Marstal: >50% solar in heat supply)

44 Storage Costs Electricity = 170/kWh Thermal = 0.5-3/kWh

45 EnergyPLAN Hourly Model of the Complete Energy System

46 3. District Heating is Expensive

47 3 options for the Heat Sector 1. Savings Reduce our demand for heat: Space heating Hot water 2. Individual Units Use a heating unit in each building: Oil Biomass Heat Pumps Electric Heating 3. Networks Share a heating network: Gas Grid Water (i.e. district heating) 30-50% Marginal ~50% Heat Pumps ~50% District Heating

48 Gas Grid High quality energy for a low quality demand Natural Gas Syngas Gas Grid Biogas Gasified Biomass

49 District Heating Low quality energy for a low quality demand Power Plants Electric Boilers Industry Heat Pumps District Heating Waste Incineration Geothermal Biofuel Plants Solar Thermal Hydrogen Plants

50 Energy Balance for the EU27 in 2010 (EJ) The Current Situation Non-specified Non-energy use Transport Electricity Heat for Industry Heat for Buildings 10 0 Primary Energy Supply Final Consumption End Use

51 HRE Methodology GIS Mapping (could be another technology, resource, etc) Energy System Modelling (EnergyPLAN) BAU (References) District Heating Demands District Heating Alternatives District Heating Resources Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

52 HRE2: Key Conclusion A combination of: 50% District Heating (Cities) 50% Heat Pumps (Rural Areas) 35% Energy Savings (Everywhere) Can enable the EU to reach its CO2 target in 2050 for 100 billion/year less than energy savings on their own.

53 1. District Heating is not only for Cold Parts of Europe 2. District Heating is a Local Solution for an EU Problem 3. District Heating can reduce the cost of energy in the EU The HRE methodology can be repeated at Member State Level and will be in STRATEGO

54 Moving from EU to Member State Level (STRATEGO)

55 Applying this Methodology at MS Level Modelling EnergyPLAN is available as a freeware: Lot of training provided: Exercises with solutions FAQs Forum Quarterly online workshops User Manual Can be used to model any national energy system Developing MS Models STRATEGO: Streamlining the process of developing MS reference models Countries: Croatia Czech Republic Italy Romania United Kingdom

56 Existing Reference Models Existing Models China Denmark Hungary Ireland Latvia Macedonia Mexico New Zealand Norway Sweden United Kingdom

57 Our Philosophy Where will we end up, rather than where should we start:2030/2050 Analysis The future will require radical technological change: EnergyPLAN Consequences for a Variety of Alternatives All sectors of the energy system will need to ne connected: EnergyPLAN Account for the intermittency of renewables such as wind: Hourly Analysis Free from existing market regulations: Socio-Economic Analysis

58 Conclusions: 100% Renewable Energy 100% Renewable Energy is Technically Possible 100% Renewable Energy will cost approximately the same price as a Fossil Fuel alternative New forms of Flexibility/Storage are essential The most economic way to create flexibility is by utilising the synergies between the electricity, heating, and transport sectors

59 Savings: Conclusions: Heat Sector There is an economic balance between reducing heat and supplying heat 30-50% heat savings is a good proxy for the economic limit of heat savings Individual: Heat pumps are the most suitable individual heating solution in a 100% renewable context Networks/Urban: District heating is the most suitable urban heating in a 100% renewable energy context

60 Thank you Want to find out more?