2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Transcription

1 2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 Jülich Research Center Jülich, November 21, 2013

2 12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2

3 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output : Population : Pollution level Year 2100 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004 J Randers 3

4 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output 3: Industrial output : Population : Pollution level Year Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004 J Randers 4

5 For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website J Randers 5

6 The five regions used in the 2052 forecast Region Population 2010 GDP 2010 GDP per person 2010 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US 0, China 1, OECD-less-US (1) 0, BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1000 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 6

7 World population will peak in 2040 Gpersons 10 % / yr 5,0 8 Population ( scale) 4,0 6 3,0 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2,0 2 Death rate 1,0 g database with slides Graph ,0 Figure 4-1 Population World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 7

8 % / yr 5,0 World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 150 Gp ,0 World GDP (scale ) ,0 Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 ( scale) Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) , , , g130605j Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012 J Randers 8

9 Global consumption will peak in 2045 G$ / yr Traditional investment (24% of GDP) Non-discretionary investment ( unavoidable repair ) World GDP Consumption 30 g database with slides Graph Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 9

10 Energy use will peak in 2040 Gtoe / yr 20 toe / M$ 300 G$ / yr Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) World GDP (scale ) Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 1970 to 2050 g database with slides Graph Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 10

11 Gtoe / yr 6,5 Fossil fuel use will peak around ,2 Coal use 3,9 Oil use 2,6 1,3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use 0, Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052 g database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 11

12 World CO 2 emissions will peak in 2030 GtCO2 / yr 50 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy CO2 emissions ( scale) (scale ) Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 12

13 Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052 ppm 500 deg C 2,5 m CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) 2,0 1, Sea level rise (scale ) 1, ,5 0.3 g database with slides Graph ,0 0 Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 13

14 Discussion of the 2052 forecast 1. Growth in population and GDP will slow by itself because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints 2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis 3. There will be enough resources including energy, water and food to cover demand (which is not the same as need) 4. There will be more poverty both in the rich and the poor world J Randers 14

15 There will be huge regional differences After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year) World BRISE China OECD less US USA ROW Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 15

16 Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption will stagnate because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 16

17 What should be done? - Ideally 1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy first in rich world 2. Cut CO2 emissions first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from Reduce poverty in the poor world Give them a climate-friendly energy system 4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Reduce the maximum hours of paid work per year 5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions 6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish increase in well-being as a new goal J Randers 17

18 What should be done? Realistically (1 of 2) 1. Further slow population growth Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children Increase the pension age Explain that support burden will stay constant 2. Cut CO2 emissions first in the rich world Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors Build no new fossil capacity in the rich world Introduce a high carbon price 3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Use most development aid to build renewable energy capacity Copy the rise of Japan, South Korea, and China and their use of strong government J Randers 18

19 What should be done? Realistically (2 of 2) 4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation Give each person the right to a certain amount of paid work ( ration paid work ) 5. Temper national short termism Establish a global agreement where all nations promise to emit less CO2 than the US Evolve IPCC to IPCC3 (funded to execute the most effective cuts) 6. Reduce the focus on income growth Start measuring change in well-being alongside change in GDP J Randers 19

20 Can innovation help? (1 of 2) 1. Yes 2. But requires more R&D&D (research, development, and demonstration) than what is profitable (based on net present value calculated at a high discount rate) 3. The funding must last for a long time (10-20 yrs) 4. The focus should be on Energy efficiency Climate efficiency Carbon capture and storage Contraception Decision making techniques that increase the time perspective in short term society 5. More details on next slide J Randers 20

21 Can innovation help? (2 of 2) To be globally useful, innovation should focus on a. Energy efficiency (in buildings, transport, industry, etc) b. Climate efficiency (renewable energy, zero emission buildings, climate friendly transport, low-emission production processes, forest protection) c. Carbon capture and storage (for the thousands of fossil fueled plants still in operation in 2052) d. Contraception (at zero cost, available everywhere) e. Decision making techniques that increase the time perspective in democratic market economies dominated by short term thinking (measure well-being, introduce compulsory vacation, increase pension age, etc) J Randers 21

22 Time to turn! J Randers 22

23 What can you do on your own? Fight short-termism in the following way: 1. Accept that the root problem is human short-termism My greed today damages my grandchildren! 2. Tell the world that you will do your fair share once the majority agrees to act I am ready if you are! 3. Admit that the simplest solution is strong government I am in favour of tax-financed, collective action! Or at the very least, buy CO2 emission rights in the EU ETS and burn them J Randers 23

24 What does 2052 mean for financial community? 1. Slow GDP growth in Europe for decades also in the rest of the industrialised world 2. Steadily rising volume of repair and adaptation work reducing the rate of consumption growth J Randers 24

25 Slowing growth in total productivity - USA % / yr 10,0 8,0 6,0 Rate of growth in GDP per person 15 to 65 years of age 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0 g database with slides Graph 3c -6, Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 25

26 Fertility decline in EU to ,5 Total fertility 2,0 Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman 1,5 Long term trend 1,0 0,5 0, Figure A4-1 Total Fertility EU to 2010 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_ xls Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 26

27 OECD outside the US 1970 to ,0 State of Affairs Population 0,8 GDP CO2 emissions 0,6 Consumption 0,4 0,2 Temperature rise g database with slides Graph 13 0, Max values 0.8 Gp, 30 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 30 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US State of Affairs 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 27

28 OECD outside the US 1970 to ,0 Production Energy use 0,8 0,6 Unused biocapacity Food production 0,4 Investment share of GDP Fraction renewable 0,2 0, Max values 3.2 Gtoe/yr, 50%, 40%, 1.2 Gt/yr, 50% Figure 8-2_o: Past and future OECD-less-US Production 1970 to 2050 g database with slides Graph 14 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 28

29 OECD outside the US 1970 to ,0 Standard of Living GDP per person 0,8 0,6 Energy use per person Food per person Consumption per person 0,4 0,2 Sea level rise g database with slides Graph 15 0, Max values 5 toe/person-yr, 40,000 $/person-yr, 40,000 $/person-yr, 2 t/person-yr, 1.5 m Figure 8-3_o: Past and future OECD-less-US Standard of Living 1970 to 2052 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 29

30 What should the banking industry do? 1. The financial community should work to increase human well-being in a world with constant GDP and declining population 2. The financial community should help establish repair and adaptation packages financed by the government through taxes or newly printed money J Randers 30

31 The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth 1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if growth continue) 2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet) 3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market) J Randers 31

32 Food will satisfy demand but not need Gt / yr 12,5 Gha 2,0 t/ha-yr 10 10,0 Food production ( scale) 1,6 8 7,5 Cultivated land (scale ) Gross yield (scale ) 1,2 6 5,0 0,8 4 2,5 0,4 2 g database with slides Graph 11 0, ,0 0 Figure 6-1: Food Production World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 32

33 Enough land but less of it undisturbed Ggha 12,5 10,0 Total biocapacity ( scale) gha / person 1,5 1,2 7,5 Non-energy footprint ( scale) 0,9 5,0 0,6 2,5 Unused biocapacity per person (scale ) g database with slides Graph 12a 0, ,3 0,0 Figure 6-2: Biological Capacity World 1970 to 2050 Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012 J Randers 33