Climate change and Africa since COP21 Tosi Mpanu Mpanu - DRC

Transcription

1 REGIONAL EXPERT MEETING CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENHANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL AFRICA 31 MAY 1 JUNE 2016, LIBREVILLE, GABON Climate change and Africa since COP21 Tosi Mpanu Mpanu - DRC

2 CONTENT Africa s perspective on the Paris outcome Africa s engagement to support entry into force, preparation of rules book and implementation of the Paris Agreement Toward an action-oriented COP 22 in Marrakech

3 PERSPECTIVE ON THE PARIS OUTCOME To a certain extent take into account Africa s priorities negotiated on the road to Paris : Addresses differentiation in a nuanced manner (developing countries not on equal footing as developed countries). Create however explicitly space for developing countries to aspire for the highest ambitious overtime. Takes a first step towards parity between mitigation and adaptation through definition of a quantifiable goal, and regularization of communication of adaptation components of NDCs, including the adequacy of support provided. Purpose of the Agreement not ambitious enough on the temperature goal, but provides a basis against which global efforts can be assessed, and action taken by all Parties in instances where action is not on track to keep Africa and the world safe. On means of implementation, for the first time, provides for transparent and periodic assessments of adequacy of support as part of the global stocktake Not explicit on the flexibility for Africa, particularly with respect to recognizing the special circumstance of the continent for particular consideration in accessing finance, it provides Africa with some ground for such a consideration.

4 WHY PARIS AGREEMENT IS NOT ENOUGH.. FOR ALL, AFRICA IN PARTICULAR The Nasa data shows the average global surface temperature in February was 1.35C warmer than the average temperature for the month between , a far bigger margin than ever seen before

5 INDC PLEDGES If the submitted INDCs are fully implemented and policies of similar strength are implemented after 2030, they would lead to a median warming of around 2.7 C by 2100 (Pink line)

6 ARTICLE 2 This Agreement, in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by: (a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; (b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate- resilient development.

7 WHY 1,5 MATTERS FOR AFRICA? 50% increase in heat-wave length Near-doubling of water availability reduction in dry subtropical region Schleussner et al. (2016)

8 Global about 5% about 7% South Asia up to 8 % up to 14% warming, high latitudes (>45 N) and monsoon regions affected most. WHY Global Sea-level 1,5 Rise MATTERS FOR AFRICA? in 2100 about 40 cm about 50 cm 1.5 C end-of-century rate 30% lower than for 2 C greatly reducing rate about 4 mm/yr about 5.5 mm/yr 1.5 C 2 C long-term SLR commitment. Steep rise in long-term risks between 1.5 C and 2 C Fraction Heat wave of (warm global coral spell) reefs duration risk of annual bleaching Global 2050 about 1 month 90% near 1.5 month 100% 1.5 C vs. 2 C marks decisive transition for the from Tropics up to 2 month up to 3 month 2100 about 70% near 100% Reduction in annual water availability Crop Dry yield subtropical reduction regions risk (Mediterranean, 50% of current Central cropproducing regions may Maize: 8% Maize: 12% up W heat: to 15-20% 14% up W heat: to 25-30% 19% America, South Africa) experience yield Rice: 8% Rice: 16% Increase in heavy reductions precipitation of Soy: intensity 10% Soy: 12% Global Sea-level Rise upper future end of tropical of present-day coral reefs. natural Only variability limiting warming to new to climate 1.5 C regime may leave in particular window tropical open in tropical for coral some regions. ecosystem reefs adaptation. Further drought risk increases in drought Projections prone not regions including like highly the Amazon. uncertain positive effects of CO2- fertilization. Risks largest for tropical regions, while high-latitude regions (e.g. Siberia, Canada) may benefit. Global about 5% about 7% Global increase in intensity due to warming, high latitudes (>45 N) South Asia up to 8 % up to 14% and monsoon regions affected most. Decisive for the future of Substantial risk increase for regional crop yield reductions Schleussner et al. (2016)

9 ENTRY INTO FORCE NEGOTIATION OF RULES BOOK AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE P.A. Next steps for the Paris Agreement Entry into force rules Plausible scenario for an early entry into force prior 2020 Parties engaged in Bonn to work the most efficiently possible : APA adopted its agenda around and identify key work programmes Toward the elaboration of MPG for the Paris Agreement Parties to engage in domestic preparation for the ratification and implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the communicated INDCs 2018 big political moment with a facilitative dialogue for ambition informed by the IPCC special report on 1,5 C

10 TOWARD MARRAKECH COP 22 upcoming presidency decide to place Marrakech in the context of an implementation COP Starting point of the implementation of the Paris Agreement Focus on Capacity building (adoption of the terms of reference of the Paris Committee on Capacity Building, PCCB and of the GEF programme for a Capacity Building Initiative on Transparency, CBIT) Focus on ambition pre 2020 : Take stock of the progress in the implementation of initiative launched in Paris : Africa Renewable energy Initiative, Solar Alliance etc Consolidated initiatives : Africa, SIDS and LDCs announced the need to broaden the AREI to other developing countries, including small island, least developed, Asian and Latin American countries, as part of an enhanced global effort to support the uptake of renewable energy globally while strengthening energy efficiency Launched new initiatives : COP 22 announced an initiative on Adaptation in Agriculture sector

11 AFRICA PRIORITY AREAS OF IMPLEMENTATION Transparency framework: adoption of common, flexible and robust transparency of action and support rule-set to ensure accountability Adaptation: improving coherence of institutional arrangements for adaptation Finance: Securing improved access to finance for SIDS and LDCs Loss and damage (L&D): Strategy for L&D and influencing workplan of Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM)

12 AFRICA PRIORITY AREA FOR IMPLEMENTATION Thank You