Top 5 European Solar, Storage & Digitalisation Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond. 5 December 2017 Saif Islam EuPD Research

Transcription

1 Top 5 European Solar, Storage & Digitalisation Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond 5 December 2017 Saif Islam EuPD Research

2 The International Battery & Energy Storage Alliance» Connect directly and easily with potential business partners.» Positive positioning in markets and market segments as initiator, driver and accelerator.» Increased attention by being listed on the IBESA website.» Being continuously present with important target groups.» Focused use of marketing budgets without money being wasted and with a positive ROI.» Participation at key industry trade events as speaker and/or panellist.» Extensive access to market data of many relevant markets.» Huge saving effects through the provision of key figures.» Free-of-charge market intelligence studies.

3 Partners (Excerpt)

4 Events Organized by IBESA (Excerpt) Intersolar Summit Iran 21 November 2017 Tehran, Iran Solar, Storage & EV Charging Europe April 2018 London, UK Electrical Energy Storage ees North America July 2018 San Francisco, USA Digital Solar & Storage Europe December 2017 Munich, GER 4th Exclusive Solar & Storage Business Circle Middle East 17 January 2018 Abu Dhabi, UAE Intersolar Summit USA East April 2018 New York, USA 10th PV Briefing & Networking Forum Europe 21 June 2018 Munich, GER 4th Exclusive Solar & Storage Business Circle Europe 20 June 2018 Munich, GER Electrical Energy Storage ees Europe June 2018 Munich, GER 4th Exclusive Solar & Storage Business Circle USA 11 July 2018 San Francisco, USA 3rd IBESA U.S. Storage Solar Power International 24 September 2018 Anaheim, USA Solar Trade Delegation Saudi Arabia October 2018 Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Electrical Energy Storage Summit USA East 5 April 2018 New York, USA 17th PV Briefing & Networking Forum USA 11 July 2018 San Francisco, USA Much more to come

5 Technology Trends 5

6 Economics of Energy Storage Systems General trend towards high-voltage storage + High-voltage storage offers advantages in terms of: + Reduced system costs due to a lower complexity of inverters + Less cabling is needed + Reduced conversion losses as the energy is already coherent with the voltage of most PV systems and the grid. 6

7 Technology Trends Integrated Energy Solutions Our focus area lies on energy storage not in isolation, but in combination with Heat 7

8 Technology Trends Integrated Energy Solutions Heat applications today are often used as a complementary technology. Mobility applications, however, are popular, too. Source: EuPD Research 2017 Do you own any of the following complementary technologies additionally to your storage device? (Multiple response) Heat pump 31% Power to heat devices 25% Wallbox (for EVs) 18% Infrared heating 7% None of these 43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% n=201 8

9 Application Areas 9

10 Application Areas - Communities Market development new business models, new chances? Residual current g supply Smart home integration Communities Storage system Weather forecast Balancing power emobility > Customers have higher expectations all-in-one-solutions > Storage suppliers need to react > by broadening their portfolio > via co-operation strategies 10

11 Application Areas - Communities Communities as well as similar offers are not key factors such as additional features of a storage system are, however Source: EuPD Research 2017 Please rank the following additional features in order of how important it is to you that they are offered by a storage provider. Emergency power Online portal for system monitoring Remote servicing Uniterruptible power supply 36% 38% 40% 46% Various smart home interfaces Option to connect more than one plant Individuelly adaptable evaluation Compatability with electric vehicle Weather forecast 25% 33% 31% 30% 29% Adjustable minimal charge level Matching electricity producte offered by manufacturer Additional revenue via control energy Community offers 10% 20% 20% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 Rank 5 n=253 11

12 Application Areas - Communities Communities as well as similar offers are not key factors such as additional features of a storage system are, however Source: EuPD Research 2017 Please rank the following additional features in order of how important it is to you that they are offered by a storage provider. Emergency power Online portal for system monitoring Remote servicing Uniterruptible power supply 36% 38% 40% 46% Various smart home interfaces Option to connect more than one plant Individuelly adaptable evaluation Compatability with electric vehicle Weather forecast 25% 33% 31% 30% 29% Adjustable minimal charge level Matching electricity producte offered by manufacturer Additional revenue via control energy Community offers Community offers 10% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 Rank 5 n=253 12

13 Application Areas - Communities it can be a crucial factor for certain end customers. Source: EuPD Research 2017 Do you partace in sonnen Community / Zero / Senec.Cloud or Econamic Grid? 3% 5% Was this offer crucial for your decision in favor of the supplier? 26% 33% 59% 74% Yes No Was/is not available to me No response n=78 Yes No n=46 13

14 Is there future potential for additional electricity offers by energy storage providers? 14

15 Application Areas - Communities As shown below, the future potential of additional electricity services is huge. Source: Source: EuPD EuPD Research Research How much do you agree to the following statements about additional electricity services? By now battery storage should offer more than just buffering solar electricity. 33% 21% 19% 8% 8% 12% Offers like this are clearly a competitive advantage. 17% 20% 22% 12% 7% 23% In the long run offers like this will replace traditional utilities. 13% 23% 26% 13% 9% 17% I entirely agree No response I do not agree at all n=337 15

16 Application Areas Commercial Users Over the years, self-consumption has gained in importance for PV business customers, whereas return-on-invest is not as important as it used to be. Source: EuPD Research 2017 What were your main motives for installing a PV plant? (Reason named first) Time of installation 70% 60% 59% 63% 50% 47% 40% 40% 30% 29% 20% 22% 18% 10% 8% 12% 5% 0% All (n=308) Installation until 2011 (n=98) Installation 2012 until July 2014 (n=45) Installation August 2014 until April 2016 (n=74) Installation May 2016 until March 2017 (n=91) Self consumption Return on invest 16

17 Application Areas - Commercial Users Next to self-consumption, an uninterruptible power supply is most crucial for PV business customers. Source: EuPD Research 2017 Which of the following applications / functions of battery storage is of relevance for your company or will be in the near future? (Multiple response) Increasing self consumption of PV electricity 49% Uninterruptible power supply E-mobility 38% 37% Emergency power 30% Peakshaving 22% Other 2% None of these are of interest for us 13% No response 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% n =

18 Application Areas - Commercial Users Financial factors are essential when PV business customers consider investing in energy storage. Also, retro-fit offers a lot of potential. 1 Source: EuPD Research 2017 How do the following scenarios influence your decision to invest in storage? Please state under which circumstances you would be most likely to invest in a storage unit? Average rank Should profitability improve Should prices decrease When the system runs out of FiT Shoud efficiency improve Should durability improve Should the systems need less space Should security improve n = 98 18

19 Application Areas - Commercial Users Considering the time of installation, the trend of pro-active installers is recognizable. They approach the customer actively in regards to storage. Source: EuPD Research 2017 Did your installer / project developer approach you to inform you about battery storage? Date of installation Total (n=311) 36% 57% 7% Installation until 2011 (n=100) 19% 74% 7% Installation 2012 to July 2014 (n=45) 27% 67% 7% Installation August 2014 to April 2016 (n=74) 47% 50% 3% Installation May 2016 to March 2017 (n=92) 51% 39% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes No No response 19

20 Application Areas - Commercial Users It is evident that commercial customers increasingly seek consultation on storage. This offers a huge potential for energy storage. Source: EuPD Research 2017 Would you have liked your installer to approach and inform you about battery storage? Date of installation Total (n=177) 26% 71% 3% Installation until 2011 (n=74) 26% 74% Installation 2012 to July 2014 (n=30) 17% 73% 10% Installation August 2014 to April 2016 (n=37) 27% 70% 3% Installation May 2016 to March 2017 (n=36) 33% 61% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes No No response 20

21 Economics of Energy Storage Systems 21

22 Economics of Energy Storage Systems + Economics of a PV system (German location) + Annual data for PV-(storage) system costs, PV feed-in tariff and electricity price for private households PV system O&M 1.0% interest rate 2.0% share of debt 100% Solar radiation 900 kwh/ kwp degradation 0.25% Framework conditions electricity price increase (p.a.) 1.50% inflation rate 1.5% Storage system O&M 0.50% System efficiency 85% 22

23 Economics of Energy Storage Systems At the latest since 2014 it has not been feasible to feed in 100% of PV generated electricity to the grid. 8% Source: EuPD Research 2/ % 4% 2% 0% -2% PV system (100% feeding in) 23

24 Economics of Energy Storage Systems Facing decreasing feed-in tariffs and increasing electricity prices, PV systems with self-consumption reach an attractive return-on-invest. 8% Source: EuPD Research 2/ % 4% 2% 0% -2% PV system (100% feeding in) PV system (70% feeding in/ 30% self-consumption) 24

25 Economics of Energy Storage Systems Based on strong reductions in storage system prices, PV storage systems became economical in % Source: EuPD Research 2/ % 4% 2% 0% -2% PV system (100% feeding in) PV system (70% feeding in/ 30% self-consumption) PV-storage system (40% feeding in/ 60% self-consumption) 25

26 Economics of Energy Storage Systems Applications for Storage Systems Application area Effect Market driver Self-consumption Electricity price arbitrage Energy market Island operation Emergency power Capacity tariffs Minimization of grid power procurement Maximization of the ROI Maximization of self-consumption Utilization of electricity price fluctuations to load cheap electricity and to discharge electricity when prices are high Offer of services at the electricity balancing market Access to electricity generation or replacement of classic off-grid supply (diesel generators) Maintaining of the electricity supply when the grid breaks down Usage of energy storage to reduce the power input of consumption High electricity prices No feed-in tariff No feed-in to the grid possible Electricity tariffs with fluctuating prices during the day Prices and demand for control energy Bad or no connection to the grid High diesel prices Vulnerable electricity supply / power outages Specific electricity tariffs 26

27 Top 5 European Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond What comes next? Who are the main customers in the future and how do they behave? Which new customer segments will come up new? Who are the main competitors? Which countries have the most attractive market conditions? Which business models will determine the future storage market? 27

28 Top 5 European Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond What comes next? Who are the main customers in the future and how do they behave? > Residential customers remain important, but the market conditions influence the target group significantly Who are the main competitors? Which new customer segments will come up new? Which countries have the most attractive market conditions? Which business models will determine the future storage market? 28

29 Top 5 European Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond What comes next? Who are the main customers in the future and how do they behave? > Residential customers remain important, but the market conditions influence the target group significantly Who are the main competitors? Which new customer segments will come up new? > Business and retrofit customers offer a huge potential, but are not targeted enough yet Which countries have the most attractive market conditions? Which business models will determine the future storage market? 29

30 Top 5 European Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond What comes next? Who are the main customers in the future and how do they behave? > Residential customers remain important, but the market conditions influence the target group significantly Who are the main competitors? > The storage market is attractive for many market players (utilities, automotives etc.), which increases competitive pressure and leads to lower prices Which new customer segments will come up new? > Business and retrofit customers offer a huge potential, but are not targeted enough yet Which countries have the most attractive market conditions? Which business models will determine the future storage market? 30

31 Top 5 European Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond What comes next? Who are the main customers in the future and how do they behave? > Residential customers remain important, but the market conditions influence the target group significantly Who are the main competitors? > The storage market is attractive for many market players (utilities, automotives etc.), which increases competitive pressure and leads to lower prices Which new customer segments will come up new? > Business and retrofit customers offer a huge potential, but are not targeted enough yet Which countries have the most attractive market conditions? Which business models will determine the future storage market? > Besides Germany, Italy and other European markets show growth potentials 31

32 Top 5 European Market Trends for 2017 and Beyond What comes next? Who are the main customers in the future and how do they behave? > Residential customers remain important, but the market conditions influence the target group significantly Who are the main competitors? > The storage market is attractive for many market players (utilities, automotives etc.), which increases competitive pressure and leads to lower prices Which new customer segments will come up new? > Business and retrofit customers offer a huge potential, but are not targeted enough yet Which countries have the most attractive market conditions? > Besides Germany, Italy and other European markets show growth potentials Which business models will determine the future storage market? > Communities and other services (balancing power) show potential as long as the market conditions are good 32

33 About the data The presentation is based i.a. on the following reports by EuPD Research Installer Analysis > European PV InstallerMonitor > European PV Storage Market Insights > Surveys amongst installers regarding buying process, procurement channels, brand choice and satisfaction concerning PV storage End Customer Analysis > EndcustomerMonitor 7.0 > Survey amongst PV system-owners and planners regarding the buying process for PV storage systems, background and buying motivation as well as brand awareness and choice > Business & Industry Monitor 2.0 > Survey of German home-owners with larger PV systems (between 30 and 250kWp, with focus on brand management, buying process and energy storage 33

34 International Battery & Energy Storage Alliance Headquarters Adenauerallee 134 D Bonn Phone +49(0) Fax +49(0) EuPD Research Saif Islam Senior Consultant Phone +49(0)