European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors The effects of Climate Change on European Lakes EULAKES Project: from knowledge to possible actions

Transcription

1 European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors The effects of Climate Change on European Lakes EULAKES Project: from knowledge to possible actions Nicola Gallinaro Project Coordinator Castelletto di Brenzone, lì 14 dicembre 2010

2 FUNDING Project funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Central Europe programme Budget: euro Period: 1st April st March partners from 4 countries are involved

3 The lake network Lake Charzykowskie N E altitude: 120 m a.s.l. max. depth: 30.5 m mean depth: 9.8 m area = 13 km 2 volume = 0.13 km 3 CENTRAL EUROPE REGIONS PL Lake Neusiedler N E altitude: 115 m a.s.l. max. depth: 2.2 m mean depth: 0.8 m area = 178 km 2 volume = 0.25 km 3 A H Lake Garda N E altitude: 65 m a.s.l. max. depth: 350 m mean depth: 133 m area = 368 km 2 volume = km 3 I Lake Balaton N E altitude: 105 m a.s.l. max. depth: 12.2 m mean depth: 3.1 m area = 593 km 2 volume = 1.90 km 3

4 THE PARTNERSHIP PL A H I

5 THE PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION should serve as a coordinating platform for enhancing the value of lakes and basins environmental governance.

6 PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION Lake landscape, unique wildlife, and recreational opportunities drawing millions of tourists annually, urban sprawl, air and water pollution, and habitat fragmentation are already stressing lake basin ecosystems

7 PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION Global climate change looms as an additional threat on the regions economy, population and wildlife by changing climate patterns and compounding the negative effects of current environmental problems

8 PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES supporting the sustainable management of lakes basin fostering a combination of - monitoring - vulnerability and risk assessment, - participative planning and discussion to answer to climate change and other environmental stressors

9 PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES To achieve the general objectives, the project will: (i) support the development and implementation of long-term lake management plans which emphasize natural resources conservation, management and adaptation, (ii) promote the sustainable management of the lakes natural resources through an innovative multi-stakeholder platform, (iii) build awareness among local communities and different sectors; (iv) improve collaboration with other Central European lake regions

10 PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES to achieve to a better understanding of ecological vulnerability of Central European Lakes in response to the potential effects of climate change in order to enhance mitigation and adaptation strategy

11 PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES The specific project objectives are focus on the following key issues: - Vulnerability assessment with regard to climate change and other environmental stressors (identification of key environmental stressors and risks) - Mitigation and adaptation strategies to support decision makers and basin planning (analysis of existing lake management plans and strategies - Development of a catalogue of potential mitigation and adaptation measures - Integration of methods and experience at local and European scale; - Local pilot actions - Environmental governance - Communication and dissemination

12 The environmental issues Big European Lakes are going to face environmental problems related to climate change The climate change could have effects on a broad spectrum of factors, phenomena or agents, usually of anthropogenic origin, that influence the state of ecological systems

13 Some concepts: ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS A situation in which an anthropogenic stressor act on a population, community or ecosystem with sufficient effects to cause a prolonged disruption of energy flow and pattern of energy storage, so as to alter the state and stability characteristics of the affected system with a net loss of sustained benefits With the usual context of natural resource management, ecological stress of this type would be of concern because of the potential for the net loss of sustained economic, social, aesthetic or ecological benefit

14 Some Environmental Stressors: Land use Hydrometeorology Nutrient loads Sediment loads Habitat changes Exotic species invasions Toxic load/exposure Some Response indicator: Algal biomass and class composition Water clarity Biomass production Relative fish species abundance/harvest Biotic carbon mass budget Hypolimnetic DO conditions Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern (BCCs)

15 THE PROJECT ACTIONS

16 The technical and scientifical WORKPACKAGES (WP) IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS (WP3): Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (WP4) Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems PILOT ACTIONS (WP5): Using advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach)

17 IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment WP Leader: Agenzia Protezione Ambiente Trento WP Budget: ,00 Main contents: Lake ecological history characterisation Survey of existing Monitoring systems Development and application of a set of tools: EULAKES model

18 Lake ecological history characterisation Long term ecological evolution of CE Lakes Colonisation history by harmful algae Long term ecological evolution of CE Lakes Long term ecological evolution of CE Lakes Definition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts, and restoration targets of each of the lakes studied, describing secular scale lake history under environmental changing conditions Study of resistance cells (akynetes) in the sediment of each lake and hatching experiments to infer long term colonisation dynamics by potentially toxic cyanobacteria and to forecast future lake vulnerability. Definition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts, and restoration targets of each of the lakes studied, describing secular scale lake history under environmental changing conditions Definition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts, and restoration targets of each of the lakes studied, describing secular scale lake history under environmental changing conditions First transnational report on long term ecological trends of lakes Transnational report on colonisation history and lake vulnerability Intermediate transnational report on long term ecological trends of lakes Final transnational report on long term ecological trends of lakes

19 Survey of existing Monitoring systems Survey of existing monitoring systems and information 8 review, in collaboration with relevant local authorities, of current monitoring systems towards a common start up based on real needs and integrated with existing monitoring systems. 1 international survey report Selection of diagnostic variables 12 Analysis of diagnostic variables applied to assess lake condition and changes in European lake ecosystem. 1 technical report

20 Development and application of a set of tools EULAKE Model set up and data collection Developing remote sensing technique approach Application of SFI results to land planning Implementing monitoring systems using remote sensing technique Running and update EULAKE model Developing a new integrated approach to investigate, map and compare vulnerability of big lakes. The approach will be based on the integration between already running in situ measurements, GIS analysis, ecological index and remote sensing techniques Running model using satellite images to map and describe lake status The aim of SFI is to describe the ecological status of shore zones and also to support land planning decision. The SFI maps can be used to predict scenarios related to different land uses. The new integrated approach will suggest some coordination and improvment of the existing monitoring systems. The different output will be collected, merged and analysed using a model developed in GIS. A validation of the model is performed. 1 new Integrated method (guidelines, and software application) MapS available in WEB GIS format Shorezone functionality map for each lake available in WEB GIS format Monitoring system review and update Syntetic Report description and a set of thematic maps International dissemination event 26 International event on the results achieved in this work package, to be addressed to target group of the project International event

21 WP3 CORE OUTPUT: EULAKES MODEL A WEB GIS tool to facilitate analysis and visualisation of data and information The scientific innovation as immediate support to a conscious territorial planning: the definition of joint tools of research and monitoring is useful to face common problems

22 EULAKES Modeling/Monitoring/Research in WP3 approach Monitoring provides input and credibility for Models Models provide insight and make projections Research provides Understanding and parameterization for Model Development

23 VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems WP Leader: Austrian Institute of Technology WP Budget: ,00 Main contents: Vulnerability assessment Emerging risk Climate change scenarios simulation and exploration Scenario impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation strategies Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of water

24 Vulnerability assessment Joint lake vulnerability and risk assessment methodology Maps of lake vulnerability Transnational approach for joint vulnerability and risk assessment of Central European lake regions. Identification and assessment of main stressors and potential impacts. Validation and extension of risk assessment methods already applied. Creation of vulnerability and risk maps for the partner lake regions Emerging risks Impacts on lake hydrology and water quality Analysis of new and invasive species Describe shore zone functionality status, especially vegetation community Analysis of impacts on the lake hydrology and water quality of the partner lakes due to environmental stressors (discharges, nutrients, diffuse pollution, cyanobacteria, macrophytes etc.) Comparative analysis of newly introduced species in the partner lakes to identify the extent of risk for the partner lakes. Attention will be given to the effects of these introductions on the lake ecosystem. Application of SFI index to study especially vegetation community of lake shore zone and detect invasive species of vegetation.

25 Climate change scenarios simulation and exploration Regional climate change scenario simulation and exploration of results Regional climate change scenario simulation and exploration of results Regional climate change scenario simulation and exploration of results Climate simulation runs for the Alpine area with CLM (10km grid-spacing), exploration of REMO and CLM results for Poland (20km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC Climate simulation runs for the Alpine area with CLM (10km grid-spacing), exploration of REMO and CLM results for Poland (20km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC Climate simulation runs for the Alpine area with CLM (10km grid-spacing), exploration of REMO and CLM results for Poland (20km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC

26 Scenario impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation strategies Impacts of climate change scenarios Mitigation and adaptation measures and strategies Multi-criteria assessment of measures defining the environmental impact of different management scenarios International dissemination event The impacts of climate change scenarios on the lake water body (water quantity, quality and temperature), the lake shore zones, grasslands and land use within the lake basin will be assessed Development of possible adaptation strategies for lake management responding to regional climate change predictions (agriculture, tourism, wastewater discharges, protection zones, fishery, renaturation measures etc.). Definition of different objectives and criteria (environmental, economic, social etc.). The measures will be assessed using a multi-criteria approach. Using EULAKES model different future risk scenarios will be generated International event on the results achieved in this work package, to be addressed to target group of the project

27 WP4 CORE OUTPUT: EULAKES MODEL Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of water Climate change scenarius Thematic Maps

28 PILOT ACTIONS Using advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach WP Leader: University of Pannonia WP Budget: ,00 The role of agriculture in a climate change scenarius (A) Status and future dynamics of new species (H) Cyanobacteria and water quality: the effects on tourism and potable water (I) Sludge permeable and heavy metals (PL) Enhancing the differences in every lake to agree on a common transnational approach for protection

29 The GOVERNANCE WP JOINT TRANSNATIONAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT A NEW MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE (WP6) Mitigation and adaptation strategy to support decision makers and environmental governance WP Leader: Naturschutzbund WP Budget: ,00 Main contents: Development of guidelines for lake and basin management Building and management governance platform (stakeholder participation) A platform at local and international level based on innovative and European governance models

30 COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION COMMUNICATION AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT (WP2) Ensure wide project promotion of output and results WP Leader: Comunità del Garda WP Budget: ,00 MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION (WP1) WP Leader: Comunità del Garda WP Budget: ,00

31 LOCAL COMMUNITY EXPECTATIONS

32 The project aims to create a debate and coordination platform on environmental lake governance Eulakes should link scientists, technicians, local autorities, NGO and private citizens to enhance the attention on lake future

33 The EULAKES path Decision forecasting Modelling Syntesis and Data Information Knowledge and understanding Analisys and visualization Increasing utility Increasing resources and knowledge requirements

34 The WHO and WHY of EULAKES USERS/STAKEHOLDERS - research scientist - Resources managers environmental agengies at all levels - Non governamental organizations - students and young generations - General pubblic RESOURCES TO PROTECT Living resources (biodiversity) Human health Habitat protection/preservation Chemical integrity

35 The WHAT of EULAKES POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR NEXT EULAKES DEBATES ARE WAITING FOR US - Ecological and human health effects of persistent toxic chemicals - Non indigenous species invasions, spread, and ecosystems effects; - Shorezones quantity and quality protection - protection of drinking water intakes from chemical and microbiological contamination - Eutrophication

36 FROM THE LAKES

37 TO THE BASINS

38 KEEP THEM GREAT!!!

39 Let s stay together with