Clipore Final Conference Key Results September 2011 CEPS/Brussels. How can Sweden meet its Climate Objectives for 2050?

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1 How can Sweden meet its Climate Objectives for 2050?

2 Gode, J., Särnholm, E., Zetterberg, L., Arnell, J., Zetterberg, T. Pathways towards a decarbonised Swedish economy in 2050 and its implications on energy demand IVL report B1955, December

3 How close to zero fossil carbon emissions can we get? Sweden s vision for 2050: No net emissions of greenhouse gases EU vision for 2050: 80% - 95% GHG-reductions How close can Sweden come to a decarbonised economy, with sustained economic growth? What are the opportunities and limitations? What are the implications on energy supply, and in particular on renewable energy sources?

4 Economic growth, Sweden: 2.2% per year; Steel, Cement: 2.1% per year; Pulp and paper 1.7% per year Carbon reductions based on commercially available technologies at < 60 EUR/ton CO 2 In addition: system change in transportation. All fossil fuels phased out and replaced by renewable fuels and electricity (Swedish parliament: transports should be independent of fossil fuels by 2030) CCS in industry Assumptions Focus on what can be achieved domestically, therefore: No CO 2 -compensation through purchase of international carbon credits. No import (export) of electricity or biomass Costs not analysed here Other greenhouse gases not analysed here

5 Method: Sector specific energy analyses and interactions Industry Electricity production Household District heating production Transport Demand End-users Biofuel production Supply Energy carriers

6 Industry sector high residual CO 2 Includes: steel, cement, pulp and paper, chemical industry, mines and other industries Main measures include: efficiency fuel switching in boilers, heaters Steel: change in reduction agent CCS in steel and cement industries Residual CO 2 : 6.5 Mt. Difficult/expensive to reduce further due to diffuse emissions from steel, cement, petrochemical industry Emissions: 2005: 15 Mt CO : 6.5 Mt CO 2 6

7 Transport sector the largest challenge System change: all private transports based on plug-in hybrid vehicles with biofuel as support fuel trucks, national aviation and national shipping based on synthetic renewable fuels (Dimethyl Ether, Synthetic Natural Gas, Biogas) Biofuel demand: 65 TWh Measures are expensive No need for petroleum refineries (reduces 5 Mt CO 2 ) Emissions: 2005: 26 Mt CO : near 0 Mt CO 2 7

8 TWh Total energy supplied to the Swedish energy system, excluding losses in nuclear Nuclear, wind, increased hydro, solar, and wave power Energy for the transport sector Nuclear Crude oil and oil products Natural gas, gasworks gas Biofuels, peat, waste, etc Hydro power Solar heat Heat pumps and waste heat Coal and coke Biofuels 2050 Fossil + bio-ccs 2050

9 Implications on supply of Electricity, Bioenergy Electricity: Increased demand 3-6% If nuclear is phased out, 70 TWh electricity needs to be replaced by wind, hydro, bio, wave, solar Wind: Target 30 TWh Hydro: +10 TWh due to climate change (increased precipitation) Increased demand of electricity for transport is compensated by decreased use in housing Waste combustion: 2.1 Mt CO 2 from plastic fractions Bioenergy: Demand increases by 140 TWh (from 120 TWh to 250 TWh) Increased extraction of forest residues and stumps possible from 25 TWh today to TWh (Forest agency)

10 Results: CO 2 -reductions 55 Mt 59 Mt Without CCS with CCS 17 Mt year 2050 (-72%) 11 Mt år 2050 (-82%) Year 2005 Year 2050 including efficiency

11 Residual CO 2 -emissions 59 Mt year 2005 Residual CO 2 : Steel process: 6 Mt BOF-gas: 3 Mt Cement process: 3 Mt NG, propane: 2 Mt Waste: 2 Mt reductions excl CCS 17 Mt year 2050 (-72%)

12 Conclusions, Opportunities and Challenges (1) Sweden is in a good position due to biomass resources Environmental consequences? Competition between forest industry and energy Greatest challenge in Transports: System change is needed Most expensive measures here Power deficit of 30 TWh needs to be resolved (in addition to 30 TWh wind, 10 TWh hydro) Large reductions possible with technologies that are commercially available. Some at negative cost Difficult to reach zero emissions, mainly due to process emissions in cement and steel industry

13 CCS potential could be larger than 6 Mt CO point sources correspond to 42% of emissions (23 Mt CO 2 ). Bio-CCS can reduce emissions further Time scale/ investment horizons Long term investments require decisions today How do the implementation pathways look like? Rebound effects? International competition A problem if Sweden moves too fast But business opportunities if Sweden is a forerunner Import/export of power, bioenergy Lowers costs Price effect on power, biomass in Sweden Off-sets? Clipore Final Conference Key Results Conclusions, Opportunities and Challenges (2) Will be scare/expensive in Can t satisfy a large share of reductions