Updates on GAINS development and scenario runs. Markus Amann Program Director International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Transcription

1 Updates on GAINS development and scenario runs Markus Amann Program Director International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

2 Contents Updating the EU emission projections Comparing the GAINS/HTAP with the new SSP scenarios Recent global GAINS projections Evolution of emission projections over time, key factors leading to changes

3 Updating the EU emission projections for 23 Service contract for DG-ENV: Updated emission projections taking into account Inventory changes PRIMES 216 Reference Determine additional actions to meet the ERR for 23 3% 25% 2% 15% Successful examples of emission 1% reductions in the domestic and agricultural sectors 5% To be presented at % Clean Air Forum 217 # of inventory changes >1% between the 214 and 217 submissions for 25 and 21 Share of total categories with changes >1% NOx VOC SO2 NH3 NH3Total With explanations Without explanations

4 The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) Global Environmental Change, 215, SSPs are part of the framework adopted by the climate change research community to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation

5 Ranges of air pollutant emissions in selected SSP and RCP scenarios (global) Rao, Klimont, Smith et al. (217)

6 Concept of implementing air pollution (AP) policies in SSPs Rao, Klimont, Smith et al. (217) Emission factor (EF) SSP 1/5 SSP 2 SSP 3/4 EF range in 21 WEU CLE 3 WEU SLE 3 Frontier

7 GAINS-HTAP vs SSP scenarios (global) SO NOx 9 8 BC Million tons 8 Million tons 1 8 Million tons SSP range 6 SSP range 3 SSP range 4 GAINS HTAP NFC GAINS HTAP CLE 4 GAINS HTAP NFC GAINS HTAP CLE 2 GAINS HTAP NFC GAINS HTAP CLE 2 SSP4 SSP3 2 SSP4 SSP3 1 SSP4 SSP Two variants of GAINS-HTAP projections: NFC... No further emission controls (after 215) CLE Effective implementation of legislation as of 215

8 GAINS-IEA vs HTAP vs SSP scenarios (global) SO NOx 9 8 BC Million tons 8 Million tons 1 8 Million tons SSP range 6 SSP range 3 SSP range 4 GAINS HTAP NFC GAINS HTAP CLE 4 GAINS HTAP NFC GAINS HTAP CLE 2 GAINS HTAP NFC GAINS HTAP CLE 2 GAINS IEA NPS SSP4 2 GAINS IEA NPS SSP4 1 GAINS IEA NPS SSP4 SSP3 SSP3 SSP Changes in GAINS-IEA (ECLIPSE 5a) vs GAINS-HTAP: Lower growth in energy consumptions (IEA) Legislation as of 216 incl. NDC

9 GAINS/HTAP vs. SSP/RCP baseline projections (global) SO NO x BC Million tons 8 6 Million tons 1 8 Million tons RCP SSP max GAINS CLE GAINS NFC GAINS MTFR RCP SSP max GAINS CLE GAINS NFC GAINS MTFR RCP SSP GAINS CLE GAINS NFC GAINS MTFR

10 2 years of Current legislation emission projections Amann & Cofala Klimont et al. Klimont et al. Wang et al. Amann et al.

11 1997 prospects on energy, SO 2 and NO x emissions in China 25 Energy China as of SO2 China as of NOx China as of History GAINS 1995 WASP 21 TELLUS 29 ACP 214 GAINS 217

12 22 prospects on energy, SO 2 and NO x emissions in China Energy China as of 22 SO2 China as of 22 NOx China as as of of History GAINS 1995 WASP 21 TELLUS 29 ACP 214 GAINS 217

13 27 prospects on energy, SO 2 and NO x emissions in China Energy China as of 27 SO2 China as of 27 NOx China as of History GAINS 1995 WASP 21 TELLUS 29 ACP 214 GAINS 217

14 212 prospects on energy, SO 2 and NO x emissions in China Energy China as of 212 SO2 China as of 212 NOx China as of History GAINS 1995 WASP 21 TELLUS 29 ACP 214 GAINS 217

15 217 prospects on energy, SO 2 and NO x emissions in China Energy China as of 217 SO2 China as of 217 NOx China as of History GAINS 1995 WASP 21 TELLUS 29 ACP 214 GAINS 217

16 2 years of emission projections in India 9 Energy India 35 SO2 India 16 NOx India History GAINS 1995 WASP 21 TELLUS 29 ACP 214 GAINS 217

17 Determinants of emission changes in China million tons million tons SO NO x Energy intensity improvements Fuel Actual mix emissions changes End-of-pipe measures Actual emissions GDP trend GDP trend Energy intensity improvements Fuel Actual mix emissions changes End-of-pipe measures Actual emissions GDP trend GDP trend Source: Rafaj et al. 217

18 Determinants of emission changes in Japan SO 2 Energy intensity improvements Fuel mix changes million tons End-of-pipe measures Actual emissions GDP trend million tons NO x Energy intensity improvements Fuel mix changes End-of-pipe measures Actual emissions GDP trend Source: Rafaj et al. 217

19 Demographic trends, rising energy use and urbanization counteract the health benefits of intensified policy efforts million people Premature deaths (million cases/yr) Exposure of China s population to WHO levels for PM NDC + Current AQ laws Premature deaths NDC + Clean Air Best Scenario Technology < WHO guideline <WHO Target I <WHO Target II II <WHO Target III III > WHO Target III III Premature deaths from household pollution Premature deaths from ambient pollution Three scenarios for 24: NDCs + current Chinese air pollution legislation NDCs + most advanced technical emission control measures Clean Air scenario: No fossil fuel subsidies Access to clean energy Waste management, Energy efficiency, etc.

20 Some lessons The SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios assume additional air pollution controls. Only SSP3 and SSP4 reflect current legislation and are therefore suitable for analyses of air pollution policy interventions. In the fast growing economies, air pollution (emissions) are strongly influenced by (absence of) policy interventions and enforcement. These (human/societal) factors are often hard to predict. However, the likelihood for strengthened policies increases with improved (public) understanding of the benefits of clean air. Demographic trends, rising energy use and urbanization will counteract the health benefits of intensified policy efforts.

21 Thank you!