The Success and Challenges of Chinese Solar Thermal Market. Prof. He Tao China Academy of Building Research. 10 June 2016, Gleisdorf Solar 2016

Transcription

1 The Success and Challenges of Chinese Solar Thermal Market Prof. He Tao China Academy of Building Research 10 June 2016, Gleisdorf Solar 2016 Overview New developments Challenges Opportunities Trends Conclusion Contents 2 1

2 Annual output/million m2 Overview Total installed capacity of solar collectors (milion m 2 ) Source: Solar Heat Worldwide edition , ,7 323,1 271,1 221,7 442 million m 2 solar collectors are being operated in China by the end of Account for 70% of the global total solar collectors installed capacity. 3 Overview Annual output & growth rate Annual output Annual output growth rate ,5 5 6,4 8, , , ,6 52,4 43,5 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 0-30% In 2015, annual output of solar water heaters is 43,5 million m 2 After more than 10 years high speed increasing, the annual output growth rate slowed down to -18% and -17% in 2014 and

3 Overview Product Share of Solar water heaters ETC FPC 13% 87% The main products in China are vacuum tube compact solar water heaters, which have high heat gain relative to its low price. A typical SWH s heat gain under the daily irradiation of 17 MJ/m 2 is more than 7.5 MJ/m 2, and its price is about 3,000 to 5,000 RMB ( euro). 5 Overview Four solar resource areas in China: I, very rich area, Global irradiation >6700 MJ/(m 2 a) II, rich area, MJ/(m 2 a) III, normal area, MJ/(m 2 a) IV, poor area, less than 4200 MJ/(m 2 a). 6 3

4 Overview 7 Overview New developments Challenges Opportunities Strategies and trend Conclusion Contents 8 4

5 In 2015, national energy bureau issued the 13th Five-Year (from 2016 to 2020) Draft Plan for solar application. According to the plan, in the end of 2020, total installed capacity of solar collectors will reach 0.8 billion m 2, annual investment will be 100 billion RMB. Because of sales of regular solar water heater have fallen sharply, the industry makes great efforts to find new field: Solar space heating system Solar Heat for Industrial Processes Solar space cooling New developments 9 New developments - Space heating Solar space heating system in General Gate village, Pinggu, Beijing ETC, 7299.m 2, 285 houses. Low temperature radiator heating terminal. 10 5

6 New developments - Space heating Solar district heating system in Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province. Evacuate tube collector, m 2, Storage, 20,000 m 3, 228 hot water tanks in blue building, Space heating for the student apartment. 11 New developments - Space heating Workshop in Shenyang Motor Group; Building Area, 32000m 2 Collector, Solar Wall, 1500m 2 in south façade, 2500m 2 in west façade Auxiliary Source, Natural Gas Location, Sheng Province, Northeast of China, Very Cold area. 12 6

7 New development - Solar Heat for Industrial Processes A solar preheating system for the printing and dyeing process in Chang shu Jinhong Printing and dyeing Co. LTD, Jiangsu province. ETC, 7460 m 2. This system can produce over 500 T hot water at New developments - Solar Heat for Industrial Processes Solar preheating water system for coal-fired boiler in Linuo industry park, Jinan, Shandong province. CPC, 5000m

8 New developments - Solar Heat for Industrial Processes Solar space heating system for a 10,000 m 2 vegetable greenhouse, Linzhou county, Lhasa, Tibet. ETC, 2150 m kw backup electrical boiler. 15 New developments - Solar space cooling Solar space cooling system of CABR, Beijing. ETC, 457 m 2 ; YAZAKI Single effect absorption chiller(175kw). 16 8

9 New developments - Solar space cooling Solar cooling in Shanghai Electric Co. 550 m 2 Fresnel solar collector (150~200 ) ; Salt thermal energy storage (PCM, 146 ) Double/Single effect absorption chiller(100kw). Source, Shanghai Jiaotong University 17 Overview New development Challenges Opportunities Strategies and trend Conclusion Contents 18 9

10 Challenges for Solar Heating and Cooling Growth of real estate investment slows down Growth of real estate investment month 19 Challenges for Solar Heating and Cooling Growth of real estate investment slows down Jingjin New City community, June, Wild grass grow 1 meter high. Perspective planning, 260 km 2, more than 8000 houses, only 3000 houses built-up

11 Challenges for Solar Heating and Cooling National strategy Nothing has been done after the 13th Five-Year Draft Plan for Solar application issued. Several policies for PV and Solar thermal power have been started. National subsidy policy of SWH s for the peasants was withdrawn. The peasants in countryside could get subsidy to buy SWH in 2009 and Demonstration Cities supported by central Government stopped From 2009 to 2011, there were 72 cities and 146 counties got 50 million to 80 million RMB subsidy. 21 Challenges for Solar Heating and Cooling Price of PV module is falling sharply with strong subsidies from central and local government. 单位千瓦造价 Cost per kwp 地区 /Region Yuan/kWp Yuan/kWp 降幅 % decreasing Yuan/kWh 华北 /NC % 东北 /NE 华东 /EC % 华中 /MC % 西北 /NW % 南方 /SC % 平均 /Average % Regions Subsides from central and local government * 1 Euro =7.5 Yuan 22 11

12 Challenges for Solar Heating and Cooling Wind and PV power curtailment. Curtailment rate: wind 39% PV 31% Wind utilization time PV utilization time Wind and PV curtailment rate of Gansu Grid, Challenges for Solar Heating and Cooling Wind and PV power curtailment lead to issue renewable energy heating policy. It s not solar thermal, it s power to heat. This will occupy the space of solar thermal 24 12

13 Overview New development Challenges Opportunities Trends Conclusion Contents 25 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Space heating demand is arising in remote rural area, such as Tibet, Northwest plateau area, where fossil energy is absent

14 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Rich solar resource, mostly single houses with less floors. 27 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling In hot-summer and cold-winter zone as well as the most developed area, people are keen for central district space heating, which is not mandatory in the past. Fossil energy is also absent and expensive. South North 28 14

15 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Potential space heating demand for nearly 400 million people. No space heating, the most developed region. 29 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling The solution can be large scale solar district heating

16 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Solar comisystem can be a good solution for single house building. 31 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Smog has become a barrier for China s development

17 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Not only Beijing, Shanghai and other south areas also suffer from smog. 33 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling Coal-fired furnace for space heating of rural areas is one of the main smog sources, Heibei, Beijing and Tianjin has issued subsidy policies for solar and heatpump space heating

18 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling The Government is promoting the Net-zero energy building, solar heating and cooling will be the main heating & cooling source. 35 Opportunities for Solar Heating and Cooling The heating management system including solar thermal system, power to heating system can be integrated to resolve the curtailment and the lack of fossil energy. Source: IEA SHC Task

19 Overview New developments Challenges Opportunities Trends Conclusion Contents 37 Upgrade of key products Trends Sunrain and Arcon-Sunmark established a joint venture company to produce large area flat plate collectors in May Some Chinese manufactures have contacted TVP Co. to discuss about manufacturing TVP collector in China. Parabolic solar collectors are introduced into solar heating and cooling system 38 19

20 Trends Upgrade of system Sunrain will cooperate with Arcon-Sunmark to promote large scale systems in China. Solar combisystem will be a key equipment to resolve the emerging requirement in remote rural area. 39 Trends Upgrade of Services Technology consulting Professional design Strictly control of installation System commissioning * System design and installation are carried out by the manufacturers now 40 20

21 Trends Upgrade of Quality assurance system Updating the national standard according to new ISO 9806 Introducing advanced test method and facility Join the global certification mutual recognition system 41 Overview New developments Challenges Opportunities Trends Conclusion Contents 42 21

22 Conclusion China has achieved a great success in the past 10 years in solar thermal industry. Due to whole economic situation, cost reduction of other renewable energy and lacking of support policy, solar heating and cooling growth rate is significantly decreasing. Comparing with electrical or heatpump heating system, the complication and high initial cost will be barriers for the promotion of solar themal technology. With people's living level raising, solar thermal is still the key solution for the tremendous demand for space heating and cooling without excessive fossil energy consumption. High performance solar collector, solar combisystem and system optimizing technology will be the key technologies in the future