Solar Roadmaps and Implementation Plans The global perspective

Transcription

1 Solar Roadmaps and Implementation Plans The global perspective Werner Weiss AEE - Institute for Sustainable Technologies 8200 Gleisdorf, Feldgasse 19, AUSTRIA (AEE INTEC) AEE - INSTITUTE FOR AEE SUSTAINABLE - INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGIES SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES

2 Table of content 1. Perspective: Global renewable energy use Global Final Energy Use of Renewable Sources for Heat 3. World market of solar thermal systems 4. Solar Thermal systems in SOLTRAIN countries 5. New trends concerning applications 6. Solar thermal system cost and levelised costs of heat 7. Solar Roadmaps - the global perspective 8. Support schemes for Roadmap implementation 9. Aim and goals of the Solar Thermal Roadmap implementation plan

3 Global renewable energy use by technology and sector, 2010 and in REmap 2030 Source:

4 Global Final Energy Use of Renewable Sources for Heat and Projection (Incl. commercial heat) EJ Non OECD OECD OECD Americas OECD Asia-Oceania OECD Europe China Brazil India Rest of non-oecd Source: IEA Medium-term Renewable Energy Market Report, 2013

5 Global solar thermal capacity in operation and annual energy yields B

6 Global Capacity in Operation 2015 B

7 Total installed capacity of unglazed and glazed water collectors in operation in the 10 leading countries by the end of 2014

8 Top 10: Total capacity of glazed flat plate and evacuated tube collectors in operation in kwth per 1,000 inhabitants by the end of 2014

9 Total capacity of glazed flat plate and evacuated tube collectors in operation in kwth by the end of 2014

10 Total capacity of glazed flat plate and evacuated tube collectors in operation in kwth per 1,000 inhabitants by the end of 2014

11 Large-Scale District Heating and Cooling Applications in Europe by 2015 Source: Jan-Olof Dalenbäck, Chalmers University of Technology, DK

12 Large-Scale District Heating and Cooling Applications in Europe by the end of 2014 Source: Jan-Olof Dalenbäck, Chalmers University of Technology, DK

13 Vojens Solar District Heating Plant Collector Capacity: 37 MW th (52,491 m²) 203,000 m³ Seasonal pit heat storage. (Source: ARCON-SUNMARK)

14 Global Solar Process Heat Applications in Operation Source: Task 49/IV SHIP Database

15 Copper Mine Gabriela Mistral, Chile 26MWth (39,300 m²) Source: ARCON-SUNMARK

16 Number of jobs in the fields of production, installation and maintenance of solar thermal systems is estimated to be 730,000 worldwide in 2014

17 Turnover The worldwide turnover of the solar thermal industry in 2014 is estimated at 21 billion (US$ 24 billion)

18 Solar thermal system cost and levelised costs of heat

19 Specific Investment costs and LCOH for small thermosiphon domestic hot water systems

20 Specific Investment costs and LCOH for small pumped domestic hot water systems

21 Specific Investment costs and LCOH for large pumped domestic hot water systems

22 Specific Investment costs and LCOH for small combi systems

23 Specific Investment costs and LCOH for swimming pool heating systems

24 500 Solar energy yield SE per system category (Northern / Central European climate) SE [kwh/m² gross /a] DHW-SFH CS-SFH CS-MFH SBH (roof) SBH (roof) SDH (ground) SDH (ground) diurnal storage diurnal storage diurnal storage diurnal storage seasonal storage diurnal storage seasonal storage 5-10m² 12-24m² m² 500-5,000m² 1, m² 5,000-20,000m² 20, ,000m² Solar energy yield per system category [kwh/(m²gross a)] Source: Task 53, Franz Mauthner, AEE INTEC

25 1 100 Specific solar thermal system cost ready installed (excl. VAT, excl. subsidies) spec. cost [ /m² gross ] DHW-SFH (roof) CS-SFH (roof) CS-MFH (roof) SBH (roof) SBH (roof) SDH (ground) SDH (ground) diurnal storage diurnal storage diurnal storage diurnal storage seasonal (BTES) diurnal storage seasonal (PTES) 5-10m² 12-24m² m² 500-5,000m² 1, m² 5,000-20,000m² 20, ,000m² Specific solar thermal system cost ready installed (excl. VAT, excl. subsidies) [ /m²gross] Source: Task 53, Franz Mauthner, AEE INTEC

26 24 Levelized Cost of Heat LCOH ST ready installed (Northern / Central European climate) LCOH [ -ct/kwh] DHW-SFH CS-SFH CS-MFH SBH (roof) SBH (roof) SDH (ground) SDH (ground) diurnal storage diurnal storage diurnal storage diurnal storage seasonal storage diurnal storage seasonal storage 5-10m² 12-24m² m² 500-5,000m² 1, m² 5,000-20,000m² 20, ,000m² LCOH [ /MWh] (25yr,i=3%, 1% O&M) Source: Task 53, Franz Mauthner, AEE INTEC

27 Solar Roadmaps - the global perspective

28 IEA - Roadmap vision of solar heating and cooling by sector (EJ/yr) 8.9 EJ/a 7.2 EJ/a 1.5 EJ/a 0.4 EJ/a Solar heating and cooling capacity could produce annually by 2050: EJ solar heat (16% of TFE low temp. heat) EJ solar cooling (17% of TFE cooling)

29 IEA - Roadmap vision of solar heating and cooling by economic region (EJ/yr) Solar heating and cooling widely applicable, although some countries show more favourable conditions (solar resource, domestic hot water demand, low temp industrial demand)

30 IEA - Roadmap vision for solar water and space heating by economic region (PJ/yr)

31 IEA - Roadmap vision of solar process heat for low temp industrial heat (EJ/yr) Solar heat has a significant role to play in the industrial sector. By 2050, the ETP DS scenario estimates the potential for solar heat in industrial applications to contribute up to PJ per year (7.2 EJ/yr), on the basis of an installed capacity of over 3200 GW th, in industrial low-temperature applications up to 120⁰C

32 Estimated Water Heater Final Energy Consumption in China for the Least Life Cycle Cost Scenario by Water Heater Technology Source: Policy Opportunities for More Efficient Residential Water Heating, Waide Strategic Efficiency Ltd, ARMINES, UK 2015

33 Estimated Water Heater Final Energy Consumption in China for the Recommended Policy Scenario by Water Heater Technology Source: Policy Opportunities for More Efficient Residential Water Heating, Waide Strategic Efficiency Ltd, ARMINES, UK 2015

34 Estimated Water Heater Final Energy Consumption in China for the BAU Scenario by Water Heater Technology Source: Policy Opportunities for More Efficient Residential Water Heating, Waide Strategic Efficiency Ltd, ARMINES, UK 2015

35 Estimated Water Heater Final Energy Consumption in India for the Least Life Cycle Cost Scenario by Water Heater Technology Source: Policy Opportunities for More Efficient Residential Water Heating, Waide Strategic Efficiency Ltd, ARMINES, UK 2015

36 Estimated Water Heater Final Energy Consumption in the US for the Least Life Cycle Cost Scenario by Water Heater Technology Source: Policy Opportunities for More Efficient Residential Water Heating, Waide Strategic Efficiency Ltd, ARMINES, UK 2015

37 India: Solar water heating - various policies implemented at different levels Source: Policy Opportunities for More Efficient Residential Water Heating, Waide Strategic Efficiency Ltd, ARMINES, UK 2015

38 Potential of RES for Heating and Cooling in Europe Source: ETP RHC, Common Vision

39 Classification of support schemes Source: Bärbel Epp, solrico

40 Direct grants and rebate schemes Source: Bärbel Epp, solrico

41 Direct grants and rebate schemes Source: Bärbel Epp, solrico

42 Fiscal instruments Source: Bärbel Epp, solrico

43 Certification trading schemes Source: Bärbel Epp, solrico

44 Business models Source: Bärbel Epp, solrico

45 Good practices for setting up RHC integrated support schemes The FROnT project was co-funded by the European Union through the Intelligent Energy Europe programme Published in October 2016

46 Support schemes for RES-HC technologies Based on the findings of the assessment of 28 support schemes implemented in nine EU Member States, the following factors are considered to be critical to the success of a support scheme: Contribution of different stakeholders; Stability and predictability; Transparency and accountability. Balance between financial adequacy and efficiency; and Ensuring quality and performance.

47 Investors and end-users are very diverse They include: Large and small-scale utilities; Large and medium -sized industrial and commercial users; Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) The public sector; Commercial property developers; Social housing associations; Millions of private house owners and tenants.

48 Ensuring long-term development through the right mix of instruments Differentiate financial instruments according to the market conditions. In order to provide stability a scheme should run for at least 5 years. Stop and go policies could be avoided through the establishment of off-budget financial instruments (e.g. funds from carbon tax as in Switzerland or levies on gas bills). Avoid conflicting support schemes (e.g. to fossil-based heating systems)

49 Main recommendations for decision-makers Ensuring long-term development through the right mix of instruments Design & implementation Evaluation and other aspects

50 ENSURING QUALITY & PERFORMANCE The Solar Keymark is a voluntary third-party certification mark for solar thermal products, demonstrating to end-users that a product conforms to the relevant European standards and fulfils additional require-ments. The Solar Keymark is used in Europe and increasingly recognised worldwide. The Solar Keymark was de-veloped by the European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF) and CEN (European Committee for Standardisation) in close co-operation with leading European test labs and with the support of the Euro-pean Commission. It started covering the collectors, and then evolved to also include factory made sys-tems, and then also custom build systems, such as controls and storage. It is today the main quality label for solar thermal products and is widely spread across the European market and beyond.

51 Subsidies, Obligations, Tax credits Tax incentives? In order to accelerate the use of solar energy all leading countries have introduced either subsidy schemes or obligations. Obligation: China No electricity for hot water preparation EU subsidy schemes: ~30% of the total system cost

52 ISRAEL The first solar thermal obligation was enacted in Israel in 1980, as an answer to the worries about security of energy supply in the aftermath of the second oil crisis.

53 Benefits and costs of solar obligations Promoting renewable heating through financial incentives taken from the public budget becomes more and more difficult as the market volumes increase. A key advantage of solar obligations is that they have a very limited impact on public budgets

54 Obligations Israel Israel is the country with the oldest solar obligation, in force since 1980 Spain The new Spanish Technical Buildings Code (CTE) was adopted in March 2006, and its solar thermal section came into force on 29 September 2006 Mexico Brazil Further Information:

55 Obligations - Mexico Mexico City shows the way to solar obligations in Central America The city government made it mandatory for new and totally refurbished facilities, which are using hot water domestically, in kitchens and for washing and cleaning, to cover at least 30 % of their hot water demand through solar technology. Further information:

56 Obligations - Brazil Solar obligation by the state of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, Brazil Requirement: 40 % of the annual hot water demand. The materials and equipment used in implementing the system have to comply to the Brazilian norm NBR, and the Brazilian Technical Standards Association (Portuguese: ABNT). A technical body will then test its efficiency, so that the system can be accredited by the National Institute of Metrology, Standardization and Quality Industrial (INMETRO). Further information: Cidades Solares:

57 Namibia Cabinet directive on Solar Water Heaters for all Government and parastatal buildings In an effort to lessen dependency on grid electricity and promote the usage of renewable energy technologies, the Namibian Cabinet through the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) directed a cabinet directive in August 2007 ordering that all public buildings (govt and parastatals) should be equipped with solar geysers.

58 Thank you for your Attention