Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean Henri-Luc THIBAULT Director, Plan Bleu ENERGAïA Montpellier 6-8 December

2 The Mediterranean energy trends are not compatible with sustainable development objectives whereas the region is highly vulnerable to climate change A better managed demand and a more diversified supply of energy in favour of renewable energy are desirable to decrease CO 2 emission and the vulnerability of the energy system vis-à-vis climate change Mediterranean past and future energy trends Climate change in the Mediterranean Alternative scenario for energy development 2

3 Plan Bleu The Mediterranean The sea, 21 countries and the EU, Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention One eco-region: km of coastline, 10% of vegetation species, 7% of marine species 430 Mio inhab., 7% of world pop., 13% of world GDP, 33% of international tourism, 3

4 Mediterranean past and future energy trends Past trends Final consumption per sector, (% in 2000) Figure 2 Final consumption per sector, Northern Mediterranean countries (% in 2000) Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries NMC SEMC Source: IEA, Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries, 2001 Edition and OECD Generalized growth in demand: In the North: expansion of the transport sector In the South: expansion of the residential/tertiary sectors 4

5 Mtoe Mediterranean past and future energy trends Future trends Demand : total increase of 65%, in the South and East 150% Dependency on fossil energy 87% Renewable energy: 2% Primary energy demand: Figure 1 trends Primary and energy forecast demand, ba NMC SEMC Trends and projections Source: OME The consequences of such energy development are not compatible with the objectives of sustainable development 5

6 Mediterranean past and future energy trends Future trends such energy development would increase the unbalances of the Mediterranean energy system: Vulnerability towards prices and supply Diverse situations in terms of resources, access and consumption Impact on the environment (climate change) and human health CO 2 emissions from energy activities NMC-SEMC, trend scenario, => CO 2 emissions due to energy consumption in the region are, thus, likely to double if no effort is undertaken to reverse the trend 6

7 Climate change in the Mediterranean: less precipitations, warmer air, more heat wawes, droughts and flood? 7

8 Observed temperatures : cf Climate change The Mediterranean: A climate change Hot Spot 8

9 Climate change Winter Summer Surface Air Temperature ( C): vs using AORCM The Mediterranean region is projected to warm under all scenarios in all seasons at rates higher than the global average. The warming appears particularly pronounced in the summer season, when it can exceed 5 degrees in the last decades of the 21st century for the high GHG emission scenarios. (from Somot et al., 2007) 9

10 Climate change Precipitation (mm/d): vs using AORCM Winter Summer In winter precipitation is projected to increase in the northern Mediterranean areas (e.g. the Alps) and decrease in the southern Mediterranean areas. In the summer the entire Mediterranean is projected to undergo a marked decrease of precipitation, up to 30% in the high GHG emission scenarios. (from Somot et al., 2007) A decrease of precipitation is also projected for the spring and fall seasons. 10

11 Climate change Sea level rise Sea level rise in line with global values (between about 20 to 60 cm by the end of the 21st century for the different scenarios) is expected. 11

12 Climate change: Strong environmental and social impacts, high economic damages Economic impact Global studies show different results due to assumption regarding in particular climate scenario and discount rate but a common conclusion from recent global economic studies (Tol,2002, Nordhaus, Mendelson et al., Stern, 2006) is : Above 2 to 3 C, all economies of the world will register important loss. MENA / North Africa will be one region most economically negatively impacted in the world : loss from -4 to -7% of GDP by 2100 Sectoral impact: Strong economic loss in agiculture in some specific countries; e.g. : SY, EG, MA, TN: -2 to -9% of GDP by 2050 (Hitz et Smith, 2003). 12

13 Alternative scenario for energy development in the Mediterranean Renewable energy and energy efficiency 13

14 Energy development in the Mediterranean Primary energy demand in the Mediterranean Alternatives By 2025, up to 11% of renewable energy Considerable energy savings Energy savings of 208 Mtoe Stabilization of oil demand 14

15 Energy development in the Mediterranean CO 2 emission from energy in the Mediterranean Alternatives Advantages vis-à-vis climate change Decrease in GHG emissions: Less 858 million tonnes CO2 emissions (from 9 to 7% of world emission in 2025) Decreased vulnerability to climate change: Less infrastucture: 154 power plants (500MW) to be constructed and more decentralised RE system Considerable co-benefits 208 million Toe saved = 1092 billion$ (60$ per barrel) Export capacity / reserves for future generations Reduction in energy dependency (18% instead of 38%) Job creation in post-oil innovative sectors 15

16 There are alternatives Conditions of implementation From pilot experiences to wide development Strong policy will at national level: strategies, objectives, tools implementation Adoption of an adequate legal and administrative framework Law, dedicated agencies, financial facilities Incentive fiscal and pricing framework Development of solar water heaters in CY, IL, PS due to high prices in residential kwh; in FR tax credit for LPG Education/training/information Labelling Research & Development in renewable energy and energy efficiency of process and products => Building, transport, industry: key sectors in the Mediterranean 16

17 A regional policy response: The Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development 7 priority fields among which: Ensuring sustainable management of energy and mitigating of and adapting to the effects of climate change 5 objectives: Promote the rational use of energy. Enhance the potential of renewable energy. Control, stabilize or reduce, as appropriate, emissions of greenhouse gases. Mainstream measures for adaptation to climate change in national development plans. Increase access to electricity in rural areas, where necessary. Targets by 2015 : Energy intensity improvement of 1-2% per year Meet 7% of the total demand for energy with renewable energy (excl. CWR) 17

18 Plan Bleu activities and orientations : follow-up of the «Energy chapter» of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development Thematic workshop (CDM) with UMET National studies Regional studies Final workshop (Monaco March 07) Several partners and networks : : Energy and climate change report (under preparation) Very action and cost/benefit oriented 12 chapters Regional studies 2 national studies: Egypt and Tunisia Round tables and workshop Main sponsor: European Investment Bank Main partners: Medias, OME, Ademe, Femise/IM, ANME, Meditep, national experts => First results in June 2008

19 For more information :