Climate change and scarcity of natural resources: major threat to security and peace

Transcription

1 Conflict and peace in a changing international context, 06/07 July 2011 Climate change and scarcity of natural resources: major threat to security and peace Perla Srour-Gandon European Commission, Directorate-General Research & Innovation Unit B5, Social Sciences and Humanities 1

2 «The 21st century is the century of fragility» (J. Potočnik) - Energy: In 2025, the EU will import 70% of its energy needs in a context of scarcity increasing oil & gas resources - Water: Three billion people will lack access to water in Food: The current two billion people affected by malnutrition will increase by Climate change: rising global temperatures will affect weather patterns and natural cycles - especially increasing water issues (sea level rise, drought, glacier and snows, and floods) 2

3 These challenges receive attention from DG Research and Innovation - Environment research programme - Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities programme - Joint research cluster: CLIWASEC 3

4 Environment research programme 11 activities (From , more than 300 projects) - Research Area Climate Change - Research Area Environment and health - Research Area Natural Hazards - Research Area Natural Resources Management - Research Area Biodiversity - Research Area Land and Urban Management - Research Area Marine Environment - Research Area Environmental Technologies including Cultural Heritage - Research Area Earth Observation - Research Area Assessment Tools for Sustainable Development - Research Area Horizontal and dissemination actions 4

5 Environment research programme 47 projects focus on Climate Change issues (atmospheric modeling, adaptation and mitigation) Two outstanding examples of projects tackling security issues - ADAM: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy To assess the extent to which existing climate policies can achieve a socially and economically tolerable transition to a world with a global climate no warmer than 2 C above pre-industrial levels - RESPONSES: European responses to climate change: deep emissions reductions and mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation To identify and assess integrated EU climate-change policy responses that achieve ambitious mitigation and environmental targets and, at the same time, reduce the Union's vulnerability to inevitable climate-change impacts. 5

6 Environment research programme 17 projects on Natural Resources Management with focus on water, land use. For example, a project is addressing the water issue in a geographical area proned to conflicts - MIRAGE: Mediterranean Intermittent River Management To provide a framework for managing the many Mediterranean water bodies dominated by temporary waters. 6

7 Catalogue of EU funded projects in Environmental research: &pagemode=none ronment/pdf/cop-15.pdf 7

8 Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities From , more than 150 projects, among them some are very relevant for today s topic: - CLICO: Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human resources Fills the gap in knowledge over the social dimensions of climate change, by looking whether hydroclimatic hazards intensify social tensions and conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel, or if they provide a catalyst for cooperation and peace. - EDC2020: European development cooperation to 2020 To address major challenges Europe will face in 2020: climate change, energy security. These issues were identified from the beginning but the results showed the the EU focus more its collaboration towards MENA on Energy security and less on issues linked to democracy. 8

9 Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities - GILDED: Governance, infrastructure, lifestyle dynamics and energy demand: European post-carbon communities To target socio-economic, cultural and political influences on individual and household energy consumption through five regional case studies. - PACT: Pathways for carbon transitions To quantify scenarios of post-carbon societies at EU and world level by PASHMINA: Paradigm shifts modelling and innovative approaches To address global changes in a long term perspectives POLINARES: Policy for natural resources Concentrates on the global challenges faced with respect to access to oil, gas and mineral resources over the next 20 years and proposes solutions for the various policy actors, including the EU. 9

10 Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities SSH also mobilises expert groups to tackle: - World in 2025: Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition - EuroMed 2030: Long term challenges for the Mediterranean area 10

11 Who s who in EU SSH research? 11

12 Common Research Cluster: Climate change impacts on water and security CLIMB / WASSERMed / CLICO: CLIWASEC (Climate-Water-Security) Cluster of three projects resulting from a coordinated call of the Environment and Social Sciences and Humanities Programmes Climate induced changes on water and security - Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins: reducing uncertainty and quantifying risk through an integrated monitoring and modelling system (CLIMB) - Water availability and security in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean (WASSERMed) - Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human resources (CLICO) - More info: Pictures: CLICO leaflet 12

13 contact: Thank you! 13