Natural Gas Demand Forecast in Korea and Northeast Asia Natural Gas Cooperation. April Dr. Kim, Myeong-Nam Korea Gas Corporation

Transcription

1 Natural Gas Demand Forecast in Korea and Northeast Asia Natural Gas Cooperation April 2003 Dr. Kim, Myeong-Nam

2 Contents Economy and Energy Consumption Natural Gas Consumption Forecast PNG Projects in NE Asia NE Asian Natural Gas Cooperation Incheon LNG terminal

3 North-East Asian Economy and Energy Consumption North-East Asian Economy Status of Primary Energy Consumption NE Asian Natural Gas Consumption Projection Gas science museum in Incheon LNG terminal

4 North-East Asian Economy North-East Asian Countries Economy in 2000 ($ Bil.) GDP( PPP in 1995) (%) Population (mil.) (%) Korea 776 (1.9%) 47 (0.78%) Japan 3,036 (7.3%) 127 (2.1%) China 4,861 (11.7%) 1,300 (21.7%) NE Russia 139 (0.3%) 16 (0.27%) World 41,609 6,000 * PPP (Purchasing Power Parity in 1995) * Source : World Energy Outlook 2002, IEA/EIA GDP Growth ($ Bil.) Annual Growth Rate Korea 776 1,183 2, % Japan 3,036 3,550 4, % China 4,861 8,484 19, % NE Russia * Source : World Energy Outlook 2002, IEA/EIA % 3

5 Status of Primary Energy Consumption Primary Energy Consumption in % 6.5% 38.5% Oil Natural Gas 4.9% 6.7% 38.1% Coal Nuclear Energy 24.7% Hydro Electric 42.7% 7.6% 23.7% World North-East Asia 4

6 NE Asian Natural Gas Consumption Projection (Unit : Mtoe) Average Annual Growth - Korea : 4.0% - China : 5.1% 40 - Japan : 2.5% North-East Asia : 2.8% Korea China Japan * Source : World Energy Outlook 2002, IEA/EIA 5

7 Korean Energy & Natural Gas Consumption Status of Primary Energy Consumption Korean primary Energy Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in Korea Natural Gas Consumption Forecast Nationwide Pipeline Network in Korea Natural Gas Use Promotion Policy Unloading facility in Pyeongtaek LNG terminal

8 Status of Primary Energy Consumption Korean Primary Energy Consumption in % 0.5% Oil Natural Gas 23.3% 10.6% 52.6% Coal Nuclear Hydro Electric 7

9 Korean Primary Energy Consumption Forecast 350 mm TOE Coal Oil LNG Hydro Nuclear Others 8

10 Natural Gas Consumption in Korea (Unit : 1,000 tons) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Power City Gas * Source : KOGAS statistical review of management 2002, KOGAS 9

11 Korean Natural Gas Consumption Forecast Long-term Natural Gas Demand Plan (Unit : 1,000 tons) City Gas 10,843 11,904 13,483 15,184 17,482 21,243 Power Generation 5,267 6,355 6,500 7,305 4,168 6,997 Total 16,110 18,259 19,983 22,489 21,650 28,240 Share City Gas (%) Power Generation * Source : The 6 th long-term natural gas supply & demand plan, MOCIE 10

12 Nationwide Pipeline Network in Korea LNG Terminal Storage Tank Storage Capacity (MM kl) Nationwide Pipeline Network Pyeongtaek 10 1 Incheon Tongyoung Total * Plan for storage tank construction by units (3.8 mil. Kl) Length of High Pressure Pipeline : 2,442 km Supply Control Stations :

13 Natural Gas Promotion Policy Promoting Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Vehicles Great potential for the CO 2 emissions and fighting against Urban Pollution The Number of CNG Buses in 2007 : 20,000 units Natural Gas Consumption for Industrial Use Leading the demand for city gas Becoming a key energy sources in important industrial areas Gas Cooling Contributing to stable gas consumption through the whole year Co-generation 12

14 PNG Projects in NE Asia Irkutsk PNG Project Sakhalin project Sakha project Scene of pipeline construction

15 PNG Projects in NE Asia IRKUTSK PNG Project Pipeline route from Russia to China has determined. Kovytka Manzhouli Harbin Shengyang Pipeline route from China to Korea has two options : 1) Shenyang Dandong Pyeongyang Pyeongtaek 2) Shenyang Dalian Yellow sea - Pyeongtaek IFS Completion Dec : Completion each party s IFS in its own country Mar : The summary IFS report of each expert group Jun : The comprehensive general IFS report 14

16 PNG Projects in NE Asia Sakhalin Project The nearest gas reserves to NE Asian Gas Market Reserves : Oil(700 mil. tons), Gas(2.5 TCM) Project Status Sakhalin-1 Project - ExxonMobil(30%), SODECO(30%), ONGC(20%), Rosneft(8.5%), SMNG(11.5%) - Investment ($12 Bil), PSA (Jun. 1996) Sakhalin-2 Project - Shell(55%), Mitsui(25%), Mitsubishi(20%) - Investment ($10 Bil.), PSA (Jun. 1994) Sakhalin-3 Project - ExxonMobil(33.3%), Rosneft&SMNG(33.3%), TexacoChevron (33.3%) - Investment ($10 Bil.), PSA (April 1999) Natural Gas Transportation (2 options) PNG : Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-North Korea (about 2,362km Length) LNG : LNG Terminal in in Prigorodnoye (about 2.5 days of LNG carrier voyage) 15

17 PNG Projects in NE Asia Sakha Project PFS in 1994 by Korean consortium & Russia Not economically viable to The lack of infra-structure The construction of pipeline through permafrost area The large initial delivery volume of gas due to high development cost 16

18 NE Asian Natural Gas Cooperation NE Asian Countries Dependency on Imported Energy Energy Status of North-East Asia Obstacles to Energy Corporation Conclusion Gas field in Oman

19 NE Asian Countries Dependency on Imported Energy Energy Import Rate by Source (%, MTOE) Oil Natural Gas Coal Produ -ction Dependency Demand Dem -and Dependency Produ -ction Demand Production Dependency Korea % % % Japan % % % Chjna % * 0% % NE Asia % % % Oil Consumption rate in All Energy demand - Japan ( 48.0%), Korea (50.8%), China (27.6%) Oil Import Rate from Middle East - Japan (81.2%), Korea (73.4%), China(48%) 18

20 Energy Status in North East Asia Russia Abundant energy reservoirs Promoting regional development by exploiting resources China High economic growth Large potential energy market North Korea Deepening energy shortage after a cold war Isolation by developing nuclear weapons South Korea Big reliance on energy importation Diversifying energy supply sources Japan Big reliance on energy importation Early participation in Sakhalin projects

21 Obstacles to Energy Cooperation Instability in Politics & Economy Existence of diplomatic & military conflict Difference in economic & political system Incapability for raising finance of a large scale 20

22 Conclusion Diversifying energy supply sources Developing energy transportation infrastructure Accelerating development of natural gas industry & natural gas market Strengthening cooperation among NE Asian countries 21

23 Thank you!