Technology Acceleration. Dr Mark Winskel University of Edinburgh UKERC Energy Supply Working Group

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1 Technology Acceleration Dr Mark Winskel University of Edinburgh UKERC Energy Supply Working Group

2 UKERC Energy 2050 Supply Working Group Mark Winskel (Edinburgh) Chiara Candelise (Imperial) Nils Markusson (Edinburgh) Paul Howarth (Manchester) Sophie Jablonski (Imperial) Gail Taylor (Southampton) Donna Clarke (Southampton) Henry Jeffrey (Edinburgh) Brighid Moran (Edinburgh) Geoff Dutton (RAL) Christos Kalyvas (Imperial) Hannah Chalmers (Surrey) Gabrial Anandarajah (KCL) Nick Hughes (KCL) David Ward (Culham) Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Technology Specialists, Energy Systems Modellers, Innovation Studies University of Edinburgh University College London

3 Technology Acceleration: Background We need to decarbonise by 2050, with significant progress by 2020 Binding targets for UK carbon emission reductions are now in place for 2020 and 2050 Our concern: how can we most affordably achieve these targets? many possible ways, including technology and lifestyle changes Our premise: we need to support technological progress over time, and build this into our thinking, planning and policies Which are the most promising emerging low carbon supply technologies? Renewables, Carbon Capture and Storage, Nuclear Power, Fuel Cells Can we speed-up their development? How? Who? By when? What difference could this make to UK efforts to decarbonise? By 2020; by 2050 UK Public Spending on Energy RD&D, (IEA)

4 Technology Acceleration: the challenges Limited predictability of technology change, especially novel / emergent / disruptive technologies long term prospects, e.g. hydrogen technology, but also shorter-term possibles e.g. CCS Innovation processes are complex and multi-faceted: learning-by-research (technology-push) learning-by-doing (market-pull) underpinning innovation (e.g. materials, electronics) enabling technologies (e.g. power storage, network management) technology transfer between different fields (e.g. offshore oil & gas and offshore renewables) all are intertwined in practice Many emerging low carbon supply technologies At different stages of development, different resource dependencies, different We have been selective in our choice of technology fields, and within the fields

5 Technology Acceleration: Our Approach Develop storylines of accelerated development over time highlighting incremental trends and more radical step-changes using roadmaps, international projections, expert consultation Devise corresponding datasets of accelerated cost and performance allowing system modelling to represent technology acceleration Markal compares assumed costs and performance of different supply options, to assemble a least cost system at 5-yearly intervals to 2050 accelerated development manifests as reduced cost, improved performance, earlier availability or new pathways Compare accelerated and non-accelerated scenarios of UK energy system decarbonisation changed supply mixes wider effects on energy system impact by 2020, 2035 and 2050 NOT predictions: modelling is used to structure our consideration of uncertainties and what ifs? illustrate a range of different possible futures, under distinctive assumptions in our case, what if we are able to accelerate the development of emerging low carbon supply technologies

6 Accelerated Technology Development (ATD) Scenarios Single Technology Scenarios, 60% ATD-Windpower ATD-Marine ATD-Solar PV ATD-Bioenergy Aggregated Scenarios, 60% and 80% LC-Renew LC-Acctech ATD-Nuclear ATD-CCS ATD-Hydrogen Fuel Cells

7 Technology Acceleration: Wind power Offshore offers significant scope for technology acceleration, onshore is largely mature Offshore developments include upscaling, advanced materials, control, reliability and installation techniques ATD scenario involved a relatively aggressive capex reduction to 2020, based on GWEC s global learning rate of 10% to 2020 Then, a lower but sustained learning rate out between Windpower deployed to a far greater extent under accelerated development scenario, but mostly after 2030 Relatively long-term impact, compared to UK policy ambitions for offshore: 30GW not achieved until 2050.

8 Technology Acceleration: Bioenergy Focus on 5 areas offering potential for accelerated technological development Gasification technology: reduced capital and O&M cost, increased efficiency and availability. Biotechnology of crops: improved yields leading to reduced costs. Agro-machinery for growing and harvesting: reduced crop costs. Ligno-cellulosic ethanol: reduced capital and O&M cost, increased efficiency. Fast pyrolysis for bio-oil: reduced capital and O&M cost, increased efficiency and availability. PJ Electricity Generation from Bioenergy Year Accelerated Non Accelerated Significant bioenergy uptake after 2020 in accelerated scenario In single technology scenario, biomass gasification is an attractive medium term option to decarbonise the power sector After 2040, biomass resources are used to decarbonise transport and heating, rather than power generation In aggregated scenarios, preferred application changes from electricity to either heating or transport, depending on the overall decarbonisation target and which other options are available

9 Technology Acceleration: Marine Energy UK has a significant potential role in technology acceleration, especially in early stages Marine scenario involves niche learning to 2015 (based on current / anticipated support policies), then assumption of continued international learning to Policy support stimulates early deployment to 2015, enabling lowered capital costs After 2015, a more aggressive capex annual cost reduction rate is adopted G W Marine Installed Capacity Year Non Accelerated Accelerated In non-accelerated scenario, marine is only deployed after 2040 In accelerated scenario, first deployments seen after 2010; by 2050, over 20 GW marine capacity is installed Significant expansion of wave and tidal after 2030, later growth becomes resource constrained

10 Accelerated Development: Solar PV Substantial cost reductions are possible depending on global R&D and market creation In the medium term (to c.2030) c-si and thin film technologies likely to dominate. Step-change cost reductions envisaged from 3rd generation technologies after 2030 niche markets may develop more quickly UK is among world leaders for some 3rd generation PV technologies (including organic) 0 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Solar PV-ATD cost curve-decentralised ( /kw) Core Scenario Crystalline silicon THIN FILM Organic PV Results suggest organic PV has a significant long-term role in power generation C-Si and thin film not deployed in accelerated scenario Conservative results, compared to UK policy ambitions, and international scenarios No account here of supported deployment in UK, or emergence of highly distributed networks

11 Technology Acceleration - Fuel Cells significant long-term prospects for accelerated development of HFCs, internationally In the accelerated scenario, transport sector decarbonises using hydrogen based vehicles rather than electric vehicles after 2030 Bus fleets Bus fleets Bus Methanol Electric Vehicles Bus Hydrogen Bus Methanol Hydrogen Vehicles Bus Hydrogen 7 7 BVkm 6 5 Bus Battery BVkm 6 5 Bus Battery Bus Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid Bus Diesel/biodiesel ICE Bus Diesel/biodiesel Hybrid Bus Diesel/biodiesel ICE

12 Aggregated Scenarios, Power Sector LC-Acctech 60% LC-Acctech 80% Electricity generation mix Storage Solar PV Ma rine Imports Electricity generation mix Storage Solar PV Ma rine Imports Marine Energy Bioenergy PJ Biowaste & others Wind Hydro Oil Nuclear Gas CCS Gas Coal CCS Coal PJ Biowaste & others Wind Hydro Oil Nuclear Gas CCS Gas Coal CCS Coal Wind power Nuclear Power Coal CCS Accelerated development scenarios feature much greater contributions from renewables and fuel cells for transport Coal-CCS has a key role in power sector decarbonisation after 2020, but long term output limited by residual emissions Nuclear Power has important role in 80% scenarios, especially if CCS is delayed Much larger power sector after 2030 in 80% scenarios, with electrification of energy services and electrolysis for H 2 Preferred supply portfolios senstive to overall ambition: e.g. bioenergy used mainly in low carbon heating

13 Technology Acceleration: Wider Effects Technology acceleration has a major impact on preferred decarbonisation pathways, esp. after 2030: much bigger contributions from accelerated low carbon technologies Overall, provides cheaper low-carbon power, transport and heating. This means less long-term pressure on other ways to decarbonise e.g. demand reduction The overall cost of achieving 80% decarbonisation is significantly reduced by technology acceleration, especially after Or, a way to decarbonise more deeply, after 2030, for the same overall cost Average benefits over next 40 years are just under 1bn p.a. Limited short term effect so emphasis is on more mature technologies and demand-side responses in shorter term, but with much expanded RD&D investments in the meantime Also, non-economic drivers for accelerated deployment not factored-in here These will increase deployment in the shorter term, and promote learning billion Year Welfare Cost Savings associated with technology acceleration,

14 Summary, Implications Strong case for a step-change increase in investment on low carbon technology development Based on IEA analysis, the UK s costs of RD&D t-acceleration appear much smaller than the benefits. Technology change has limited predictability, so there are no clear winners and losers over long timescales Much greater RD&D effort is economically justified across a range of low carbon supply technologies, equivalent to aggregate spending after the 1970s energy crisis. Need to consider allocation of spending across the technology portfolio Long term R&D, shorter term demonstration Public / private mix UK contribution and focus in the wider international effort Costs are shared internationally but the benefits are available to many. The UK should play a leading part in international efforts. tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today African Proverb

15 More Information: Chapter 4 of Energy 2050 Report Full Research Report available from mark.winskel@ed.ac.uk