Property, Prosperity & Poverty: Trends & Choices in Land Use Policy

Transcription

1 Property, Prosperity & Poverty: Trends & Choices in Land Use Policy Presentation by Wendell Cox Wendell Cox Consultancy Institute of Economic Affairs London 20 November 2002 Internet: publicpurpose.com & demographia.com

2 Urban Sprawl & Smart Growth 2

3 Birthplace of Smart Growth: London Green Belt 3

4 Smart Growth Preference: Urban Densities, Not Suburban 4

5 Smart Growth Preference: Public Transport, Not Motorways 5

6 Paris: Place de Republic 6

7 Nirvana (Portland) 7

8 Ub Urban Sprawl: World s Oldest Land Use Trend

9 Int l Urban Area Density: 2000 United States Australia Canada Europe Asia 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 9

10 US & International Sprawl % -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% US Canada Europe Asia Australia Change In Density -35% In 10

11 Amsterdam Land Area Population

12 Paris is Not Paris 12

13 Copenhagen Suburbs 13

14 Stockholm: Arlanda Corridor 14

15 America from Disney World 15

16 Portland is Not Portland 16

17 Hypersprawl: p London Green Belt 17

18 London Area Population from ,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 Counties Adjacent to Green Belt 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Outer London 2,000,000 Inner London

19 Urban Sprawl: The Causes Sprawl is caused by affluence and population growth, and which of these, exactly, do we proposed to prohibit? Greg Easterbrook The New Republic 19

20 The False Farmland Crisis i

21 US Land Use: Urban 80 Farmland Other

22 Open Space Sprawl Since 1950 New Open Space Created 22

23 UK Urbanization: 1,000 Years After Hastings 89% Urban 11% Oh Other 23

24 Agriculture Subsidies Agriculture prices considered too low. Large subsidies to agriculture (EU & USA). If farmland or agriculture were threatened, prices would be excessively high 24

25 Smart Growth: Denying Housing Opportunity

26 Housing Affordability: Portland & US 75% 65% 55% US 45% 35% 25% Housing Opportunity Index Portland 26

27 Housing Affordability: Portland & Phoenix Population Growth Housing Affordability 50% 40% Phoenix 75% 65% Phoenix 30% 55% 20% 45% 10% Portland 0% % 25% Portland

28 Home Ownership by Degree of Sprawl Least Less Middle More Most 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 28

29 African-American (Black) Home Ownership: Tufts Report 60% 50% 55% 40% 45% 30% 20% 10% 0% Less Sprawl More Sprawl 29

30 Impact Fees: California Multiple li l Units Average Maximum Detached Houses $0 $2 5, 00 0 $5 0, 00 0 $7 5,

31 Planning Raises Housing Prices Land rationing: less land development competition Less competition among builders because less land development competition Potential for political corruption Brownfield requirement Amenities in building codes Costs of planning gprocess 31

32 The Cost of Planning US house price differences due to land use planning (Harvard) UK house prices increased by town planning ( 40,000/new 000/ Essex house: Jules Lubbock) UK consumer prices reported higher due to town planning 32

33 The Limits of Public Transport

34 Public Transport Market Share Portland New York Toronto Nagoya Paris Tokyo 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 34

35 Transit Market Share Dropping 0% -10% -20% Tk Tokyo -19% Toronto -20% -30% -40% -50% New York -56% Paris -33% -60% Note 20

36 US New Rail: Cost per New Rider 36

37 Public Transport: Auto-Competitive Service Principally to Downtown (CBD) Central Business Districts: 5-20% of Metropolitan Employment 37

38 Central London Employment: ,600, ,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,

39 Little Automobile Competitive Suburb bto Suburb bservice 39

40 Roadways

41 International Urban Traffic: Vehicle Hours/Square Mile US Europe Canada Australia Asia 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 41

42 US Traffic Volumes (VMT) by Density 25 0, , , ,000 50, < ,000-9,999 1,000-3,999 10,000 & O ver 42

43 Air Pollution & Vehicle Speed 2,500% 2,000% NOx CO NMHC 1,500% 1,000% 500% 0% MPH: Grams per Mile Compared to 55 MPH 43

44 Average Work Trip Travel Times: 60 London Area : Minutes Central Inner w/o Central Outer SE England 44

45 Portland: World Class Traffic 65,000 60,000 Portland 55,000 50,000 US 45,000 Vehicle Miles Per Square Mile 40,

46 Portland Planning Projection: Nearly All New Travel is Autos New roadway travel New Public <Transport Travel Travel Million passenger miles46

47 Democratisation of Prosperity: From American Dream to Universal Dream

48 Property Rights & Prosperity 48

49 Home Equity as a % of New Worth 70 % 60 % US Households % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0% All Less t han $20, 000 $20,000- $50,000 49

50 Income per Capita: 1999 United States United States: Hispanic United States: Black Sweden Swedish Research Institute of Trade UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 50

51 The Japanese Dream 51

52 Responding to a Phony Crisis No problem has been identified of sufficient magnitude to justify coercive smart growth strategies. Smart growth strategies tend to intensify the very problems they are purported to solve. 52

53 Lone Mountain Compact absent a material threat to other individuals or the community, people should be allowed to live and work where and how they like 53

54 Wendell Cox Consultancy publicpurpose.com demographia.com 54