US 1 Regional Growth Strategy Shaping the Region s s Future

Transcription

1 US 1 Regional Growth Strategy Shaping the Region s s Future Central Jersey Transportation Forum July 20, 2006

2 Route 1 Regional Growth Strategy Work Flow

3 US 1 Regional Growth Strategy Base Year Conditions

4 The Economy The region, linked to larger global and continental systems, functions and will grow as a continuous urban network.

5 Economic Structure and Market Characteristics Mix of public, private, and institutional employment Relationship to labor skills Access to markets, global to local Image and identity (psycho-graphic) Economic dynamics know no political boundaries.

6 Demographics Housing and Jobs % increase Dwelling Units 145, ,354 27% Population 403, ,451 28% Employment 237, ,528 41% Already, job growth is exceeding housing growth.

7 Demographics Journey-to to-work, 2000 Resident Labor Force Location of Work Study Area Employees Location of Residence 350, , , , , , , ,000 work outside study area work in study area 200, ,000 live outside study area live in study area 100, ,000 50,000 50, Towns depend on each other; the region imports more than one half of its employees.

8 Travel Peak Hour Roadway Congestion Over- Capacity Roadway Links V/C >= 1.0 Peak hour traffic congestion is already with us

9 US 1 Regional Growth Strategy Views of the Future

10 Trend Demographics Jobs and Housing, , , , , , , , , , , ,252 Jobs Housing 100, Residential growth will slightly exceed non-residential growth.

11 Trend Travel, 2025 Peak Hour Congestion Over- Capacity Roadway Links V/C >= TREND SCENARIO Peak-hour roadway congestion will increase substantially, particularly in the central portion of the study area.

12 Build-Out Analysis Available Land In year 2000, the region had a substantial amount of undeveloped land, but much of this land was environmentally constrained. Only 25% of land was undeveloped and unconstrained in 2000.

13 Build-Out Demographics 900, , , , , ,000 Jobs Housing 400, , , , , , Build-out 222,302 Opposite of trend, build-out non-residential growth will be far greater than residential growth.

14 Build-Out Travel, 2005 Peak Hour Congestion Over- Capacity Roadway Links V/C >= 1.0 BUILD-OUT SCENARIO The trend scenario approaches traffic gridlock, but build-out gridlock is almost absolute.

15 Summary of Key Findings The imbalance between residential and commercial development will aggravate existing problems: the lack of a locally available e labor force, the need for affordable housing, and traffic congestion. Employers will need to import even more of their labor force, thereby increasing commute times, vehicle miles traveled, and traffic congestion. Travel demand will far exceed the capacity of the region s transportation infrastructure. As travel throughout the region gets much more difficult & time consuming, development may become much less attractive. Available housing in both type and cost, will determine the region s s economic future

16 IS THERE ANOTHER WAY?

17 Smart Growth Scenario Key Objectives Economy the region maintains its economic growth, with a balance of industries and occupations Land Use local plans provide for a better mix of land uses and redevelopment opportunities Demographics the region has a better jobs-to to- housing balance Travel new land use patterns reduce the rate of increase in vehicular travel and complement multi-modal modal transportation investments.

18 Economy - Opportunity Zones Opportunity Zones provide the economic framework for preparing the regional growth strategy

19 Opportunity Zones and Proposed Growth Locations Growth Locations are more specific areas for which center- based development opportunities may be available

20 Opportunity Zones and Proposed Growth Locations

21 Building Blocks - Centers Centers are compact forms of development that compared to sprawl development, consume less land, deplete fewer natural resources and are more efficient in the delivery of public services. NJ State Development and Redevelopment Plan State Plan Centers Urban Regional Town Village Hamlet Transit Village Source: Office of Smart Growth

22 Building Blocks - Nodes Nodes are special purpose districts that include land uses not typically appropriate for center- based development because of the nature and/or scale of the use. Examples include: Warehousing/distribution centers; Heavy industrial uses; Utilities and transportation; and Existing corporate office campuses, under limited circumstances

23 Building Blocks Transportation A hierarchy of roadway and transit facilities/services to provide regional and local access Appropriate to match scale of each type center and node Some require regional validity to serve a center/node

24 Draft Regional Growth Strategy

25 Proposed Centers and Nodes The proposed centers and nodes reflect stakeholder review of the growth locations and application of the building blocks

26 Proposed Centers and Nodes

27 Alternative Scenario The study team converted the proposed centers and nodes into center-based zoning classifications for entry into the GOZ Model. Within each town, areas not within centers and nodes received environs zoning.

28 Other Future Views versus Alternative Scenario Trend Build-Out Alternative Housing units 239,252 29% 222,302 20% 251,109 35% Employment 405,540 21% 824, % 768, % Jobs:Housing The alternative zoning scenario generates more growth in housing and less growth in employment than existing zoning build-out.

29 Maps need to be revised Employment Density Existing Zoning Build-Out v. Alternative Non-residential growth under the alternative zoning scenario is much more concentrated than under existing zoning build-out.

30 Trip Generation under Alternative Scenario Comparative Increase in Vehicle Trips under Existing Zoning Build-Out and Alternative Scenario 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - Existing Zoning Build-Out Alternative Scenario The GOZ Model calculates that the increase in vehicle trips under the alternative scenario will be about 25% less than the increase under existing zoning build-out.

31 Coming Events: Sub-Area Working Groups AGENDA: Review background information Discuss updated work plan Present community audit results Review new technical work: leads to supply and demand measures Present trips that are in excess of road capacity Consider potential transportation system improvements - map opportunities Transit: NEC and BRT Bicycle and pedestrian Roadways Present and discuss summary information on alternative land use scenario outputs and impacts; obtain reactions Consider other potential complementary/supportive demand-side measures

32 Elements of Future Work Optimize the economic potential for the overall region and each town. Revise local plans and ordinances to reflect alternative growth scenario Demonstrate multiple benefits of growth scenario for study partners Establish compact to embrace and implement the strategy