The Ocean Economy in Shardul Agrawala Head, Environment and Economy Integration Division OECD Environment Directorate

Transcription

1 The Ocean Economy in 2030 Shardul Agrawala Head, Environment and Economy Integration Division OECD Environment Directorate Ny-Ålesund Symposium September

2 Outline Global challenges and implications for the ocean economy The Ocean Economy today Growth prospects for ocean-based industries The Ocean Economy in 2030 Some Policy implications 2

3 GLOBAL CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OCEAN ECONOMY 3

4 Global Economy is stuck in a low growth trap Source: OECD Economic Outlook

5 OECD Employment will return to pre-crisis only in 2017 OECD Euro area Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: OECD Employment Outlook

6 Slowing long-term economic growth Source: OECD Long-Term Economic Outlook,

7 Growing population, urbanisation, megacities Source: UN (2014), allianz.com 7

8 Environmental issues Increasing primary energy demand and accelerating climate change Source: IEA, 2015; IPCC,

9 Where do Oceans fit in? Ocean based assets and economic activities offer prospects for new sources of growth, jobs, and innovation. The also offer solutions to key environmental challenges While also being at increased risk from enhanced economic activity, demographic and environmental pressures 9

10 THE OCEAN ECONOMY TODAY 10

11 The concept of the ocean economy Ocean Economy Oceanbased industries Intermediate inputs Impacts Marine ecosystems Market flows and services Physical capital stock ocean-based industries Nonmarket flows and services Natural capital assets Source: OECD (2016) 11

12 How was the ocean economy measured? Creation of OECD Ocean Economy Database at global scale: - 10 major ocean-based industries so far; - industry-specific contribution to the global economy (gross value-added and employment); - drawn from official primary and secondary international (e.g. OECD, UN organisations, World Bank) and national sources, supplemented by industry and business data; - breakdown by major geographic regions; - partial sectoral coverage for 169 coastal states / economies. 12

13 What are we measuring? Not volumes (e.g. freight tonnes, gross tonnage/cgt.) Not turnover involves double counting of inputs purchased from other industries Gross Value Added output of entire sector minus intermediate products purchased from other industries the direct net economic contribution of an industry to the overall economy. 13

14 USD Billions How big is the ocean economy? Value-added of ocean-based industries in 2010 by industry Source: OECD (2016) 14

15 Regional breakdown of value-added of selected ocean industries in USD billions, Africa and Middle East Value-added of maritime and coastal tourism by region Asia and Oceania Central and South America Europe NAFTA Rest of the World Africa and Middle East Value-added of fish processing by region Asia and Oceania Central and South America Europe NAFTA Rest of the World Value-added of shipbuilding by region Value-added of fisheries by region Africa and Middle East Asia and Oceania Central and South America Europe NAFTA Rest of the World Africa and Middle East Asia and Oceania Central and South America Europe NAFTA Rest of the World 15

16 Millions FTE Ocean-based industries contributed more than 31 million FTE jobs in Full-time equivalent employment in ocean-based industries in 2010 Source: OECD (2016) Note: FTE = full-time equivalent 16

17 THE OCEAN ECONOMY IN

18 Growth prospects for ocean industries Prospects for modest growth Capture fisheries Offshore oil and gas extraction in deep water Prospects for high long-term growth Shipping Shipbuilding Offshore wind Marine aquaculture Tourism Surveillance and safety Long-term potential but not yet at commercial scale Ocean renewable energy Marine biotechnology Deep-sea mining Carbon capture and storage 18

19 Offshore wind Installed wind power capacity by type and region in the IEA New Policies Scenario, 2040 Source: OECD/IEA,

20 Ocean energy Projected ocean energy installed capacity in context Source: European Ocean Energy Association (2010) 20

21 The Ocean Economy in 2030 Objective: obtain a coherent projection of the growth of the ocean economy as a whole Our approach Ocean economy database, integrating country- and industry- specific data Business-as-usual scenario: continuation of past trends, no major policy or technological developments. 21

22 Ocean industry value-added to double (from 1.5 to 3 trillion USD) by 2030 Source: OECD (2016) 22

23 Millions In 2030, ocean industries likely to provide more than 40 million FTE jobs 12 Full-time equivalent employment in ocean-based industries in 2010 and Source: OECD (2016) 23

24 Conservative estimates! Some important maritime sectors missing due to data gaps or early stage of development. Only measuring direct economic contribution and direct FTE employment (no spill overs effects, etc.) Only industrial-scale activity, no artisanal sector. Qualitative discussion of challenges in marine ecosystem valuation. 24

25 SOME POLICY IMPLICATIONS 25

26 A growing ocean economy relies on a healthy marine ecosystem which is already under pressure on various fronts Source: WWF (2015) 26

27 Business-as-usual growth of economic activities in the ocean is not an option for the future Global warming Acidification Pollution Overfishing Source: IPCC, 2015; FAO, 2015, Maribus, 2010.

28 Some final thoughts It is time to recognise the closely interconnected clusters of ocean economic activities as an economic system, rather than a fragmented collection of individual sectors (Parallels with the information economy ). Need to strengthen integrated and more strategic approach to management of maritime activities, not least in economic exclusion zones, but also at regional and global levels. Strengthen Information Base: data on marine resources very fragmented and hard to locate, limited information on interactive effects of different uses and users of the ocean Use of Economic Analysis and Incentives : Better economic valuation of marine ecosystems and services, integrating such information in decision-making, greater use of economic instruments to internalise environmental externalities Better harness technology and innovation for the sustainable development of the ocean economy 28

29 Further Information 29

30 APPENDIX 30

31 Ocean-based industries Established ocean-based industries Industrial capture fisheries Industrial seafood processing Shipping Port activities Shipbuilding Offshore oil and gas (shallow water) Marine manufacturing and construction Maritime and coastal tourism Marine business services Marine R&D and education Dredging Source: OECD (2016) Emerging ocean-based industries Industrial marine aquaculture Deep- and ultra-deep water oil and gas Offshore wind energy Ocean renewable energy Marine and seabed mining Maritime safety and surveillance Marine biotechnology High-tech marine products and services Others 31