DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert

Transcription

1 DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert Franz Trieb DLR Stuttgart September 2009 Folie 1

2 Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid: Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA EUMENA: Europe Middle East North Africa Folie 2

3 Studies: MED-CSP TRANS-CSP AQUA-CSP Assessment of the renewable energy potential for the sustainable supply of electricity and water in 50 countries of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa taking into consideration the option of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Folie 3

4 50 Countries in EUMENA analysed Europe (EU) Scandinavia Western Europe Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Western Asia North Africa Arabian Peninsula Middle East & North Africa (MENA) Folie 4

5 Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply: Inexpensive low electricity cost no long term subsidies Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand based on inexhaustible resources available or at least visible technology capacities expandable in time Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access Folie 5

6 Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity: Coal, Lignite Oil, Gas Nuclear Fission, Fusion Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) Biomass Hydropower Wind Power Photovoltaic Wave / Tidal ideally stored primary energy storable primary energy fluctuating primary energy Folie 6

7 Renewable Energy Technologies Hydropower Geothermal Concentrating Solar Power Biomass Tides Waves Photovoltaic Wind Power Folie 7

8 Concentrating Solar Power Parabolic Trough (PSA) Solar Tower (SNL) Up to 550 C Steam Turbines over 1000 C Gas Turbines, Engines Linear Fresnel (MAN/SPG) Dish-Stirling (SBP) Folie 8

9 Principle of a Concentrating Conventional Thermal Solar Thermal Power Power Plant Plant Concentrating Solar Collector Field (Mirrors) Solar Heat Thermal Power Cycle (e.g. Steam Turbine) Fuel Electricity Thermal Energy Storage Process Heat concentrated, easily storable solar thermal energy as fuel saver spinning reserve firm capacity, power on demand combined generation of process heat for cooling, industry, desalination, etc. Folie 9

10 ANDASOL 1, Guadix, Spain (50 MW, 7 h Storage, 2009) Folie 10

11 High Voltage Direct Current Transmission Voltage: Power: Length: Source: Volt 6400 Megawatt 2070 km Hydropower Folie 11

12 Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa Biomass (0-1) Geothermal (0-1) Solar (10-250) Max Wind Energy (5-50) Hydropower (0-50) Min Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y Folie 12

13 Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA > Electricity in TWh/y How Does a Sustainable Mix Look Like? Solar Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Wave/Tide Desalination MENA Europe 0 Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050 Folie 13

14 Installed Capacity [GW] Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA 5000 h/a 2000 h/a Year Import/Export Desalination 2400 Photovoltaic Wind Power Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Tidal/Wave CSP Oil & Gas Coal Nuclear Firm Capacity Peak Load 100 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity Folie 14

15 Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuel (no fossil or nuclear base load supply) Power Supply [GW] Combined Heat & Power Domestic Renewables Solar Import Import & Pump Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Surplus Hourly Model Germany 2050 (Brischke 2005) Folie 15

16 Availability and Redundancy Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants Increased Number of Supply Regions Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Non-depletable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Strategy is Based on Proven Technologies Folie 16

17 Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % until 2050 in spite of a quickly growing demand CO2-Emissions in Mt/y Year Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear 1% of Land Area Required Folie 17

18 Environmental Security Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Power Generation Reduced Risks of Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation Reduced Local Pollution by Combustion Products Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix Technology based on Recyclable Materials Folie 18

19 Equipment Cost Learning Curves Folie 19

20 Coal Price Nuclear Decommissioning Cost National Audit Office UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority UK 11 GW Capacity 61 Billion of 2007 = 6000 /kw Folie 20

21 Electricity Cost (Example Spain) Electricity Cost [c/kwh] Investment Phase Profit Phase Year TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix , Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 2005, after 2020 CCS Folie 21

22 Economic Security Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA Folie 22

23 Import Dependency of European Power Generation Energy Import for Power Generation 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Import Dependency in TRANS-CSP Scenario Current Trend of Import Dependency Year Folie 23

24 Solar Power & Desalination Plants HVDC Line Conventional AC Grid Energy, Water, Food, Labor and Income for further 300 Million People in MENA? (artist view created with Google Earth) Folie 24

25 Political Security Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership Folie 25

26 Challenges Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm) Requires Long-Term Financing Schemes due to Long-Term Investments Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials Folie 26

27 Thank You! Folie 27

28 Some Background Information Folie 28

29 Total EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection * Year Lines x Capacity GW 4 x x x x 2.5 Transfer TWh/y Capacity Factor Turnover Billion /y Land Area CSP 15 x x x x 50 km x km HVDC 3100 x x x x 1.0 Cum. Investment CSP Billion HVDC Elec. Cost CSP /kwh HVDC * All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP Folie 29

30 Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP Annual Full Load Hours [h/y] SM4 SM3 SM2 SM1 ANDASOL 1 Nevada Solar 1 SM1 SM2 SM3 SM Solar Field 1 Solar Field 2 Solar Field 3 Solar Field 4 Direct Normal Irradiation [kwh/m²/y] Storage 1 Storage 2 Storage 3 SM = Solar Multiple 1 Solar Field = 6000 m²/mw 1 Storage = 6 hours (full load) Power Block Electricity Folie 30

31 Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario) 4500 Electricity [TWh/y] Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Year Folie 31

32 Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa 4500 Electricity [TWh/y] Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear Year Folie 32

33 AQUA-CSP Scenario for Middle East & North Africa 600 Water Consumption [Bm³/y] Natural Water Used Wastewater reused Fossil Fuel Desalination Groundwater Over-Use CSP Desalination Efficiency Gains Folie 33

34 Solar Electricity Generating System - SEGS, California, USA (354 MW, online since 1985) Folie 34

35 Global Potential for Concentrating Solar Power Global Technical Potential: 3,000,000 TWh/y Global Electricity Consumption: 18,000 TWh/y Folie 35

36 DNI Class Africa Australia Central Asia, Caucase Canada China Central South America India Japan ,254 6,631 14, ,332 31,572 7, ,194 18, ,276 20,585 1, ,834 36, ,027 24, ,066 87, ,415 20, , , ,197 6, , , ,330 3, , , ,180 5, ,009 49, ,079 11, Total 1,459, ,600 15, , ,992 10,928 0 DNI Class Middle East Mexico Other Developing Asia Other East Europe Russia South Korea EU27+ USA ,432 1,606 4, , ,443 3,378 5, , ,191 3,650 10, , ,188 5,807 30, , ,324 15,689 19, , ,954 7,134 4, , ,263 1, , ,843 1, Total 290,639 40,675 75, , ,704 CSP potentials in TWh/y available in the REACCESS world regions for different DNI Classes Folie 36