Renewable heating technology solutions including heat pumps

Transcription

1 Renewable heating technology solutions including heat pumps Lukas Kranzl, Andreas Müller, Michael Hartner, Gerhard Totschnig TU Wien Workshop on Regional Heating and Cooling priorities in the framework of the Smart Specialisation Platform (S3P-E H&C), 30th May 1st June 2018 TU Wien - Energy Economics Group (EEG)

2 Total final energy demand in 2015 (EU28) Non-H/C 50% Heating and cooling 50% Process heating 16% Space heating 27% Hot water 4% Space cooling 1% Process cooling 1% Other heating 1% Source: Fleiter et al, 2015, 2

3 H&C final energy demand by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28) 1% 0% 0% Gas 9% 8% 4% 42% Oil Biomass Electricity District heating 2015 shares FED: Fossil: 66% RES: 13% El+DH: 21% Coal 12% Others (fossil) Solar thermal 12% Heat pumps 12% Others (RES) Source: Fleiter et al, 2015, 3

4 Paris Agreement COP21 COP21 asdf Paris Agreement 4

5 Role of RES-H technologies in scenarios until 2050, space H/C, hot water, EU-28 Ambitious scenario: 73% CO2-reduction => not sufficient for Parisconsistent decarbonisation targets! Decrease in final energy demand for heating and cooling (-38%, ambitious) Increase in heat pumps, solar thermal and biomass District heating gains market shares. 6 Source: Invert/EE-Lab model results in Hartner et al, 2018,

6 Ingredients for H/C decarbonisation scenarios Building refurbishment and efficiency improvements (~40% to >50% reduction of heat demand , EU-28) Decentral renewables: Biomass, Heat pumps, Solar 40%-60% of H/C demand in 2050, EU-28 District heating: Expansion and high connection rates ~15%-40% of H/C demand, EU-28 Renewables ~80%-95% in 2050, EU-28 Excess heat integration Transition to 4th generation district heating Decarbonisation of electricity generation ~14%-20% of H/C sector covered by electricity Smart solutions, sector coupling and making use of the heating sector as a flexibility option for an increasingly volatile RES-E generation Local, regional, national heat planning and mapping 7

7 Ingredients for H/C decarbonisation scenarios Building refurbishment and efficiency improvements (~40% to >50% reduction of heat demand , EU-28) Decentral renewables: Biomass, Heat pumps, Solar 40%-60% of H/C demand in 2050, EU-28 District heating: Expansion and high connection rates ~15%-40% of H/C demand, EU-28 Renewables ~80%-95% in 2050, EU-28 Excess heat integration Transition to 4th generation district heating Decarbonisation of electricity generation ~14%-20% of H/C sector covered by electricity Smart solutions, sector coupling and making use of the heating sector as a flexibility option for an increasingly volatile RES-E generation Local, regional, national heat planning and mapping 8

8 Distribution costs ( /MWh) Potentials for district heating, EU-28 Cost curve base year 2015 (with 45% connection rate) renovation Increased connection rate Share in total useful energy demand (%) Source: Invert/EE-Lab model results in Hartner et al, 2018,

9 Case studies from the project progressheat 3) Biomass CHP Heat savings 6) Solar thermal heat Heat pump 4) Geothermal energy Reinvesting in grid 5) Excess heat from refinery PV+AC+HP 1) Excess heat utilisation + New development area 2) Reinvestment in DH grid Reincreasing connection rate 10

10 FED for SH and DHW [MWh] CO2 emission reduction Increasing the share of RES in the district heat generation portfolio, Herten, % DH heat pump % 59% 61% 62% 59% 58% 60% DH biomass boiler % 40% DH solar thermal DH waste incineration DH coal boiler % 29% 30% 20% 10% Individual solar thermal Individual heat pump Individual direct electric heat Individual biomass boiler Individual oil boiler - 0% Individual coal boiler Individual gas boiler 11

11 Solar district heating: Big solar for Graz? 12 Source: Solid, Energie Steiermark

12 Ingredients for H/C decarbonisation scenarios Building refurbishment and efficiency improvements (~40% to >50% reduction of heat demand , EU-28) Decentral renewables: Biomass, Heat pumps, Solar 40%-60% of H/C demand in 2050, EU-28 District heating: Expansion and high connection rates ~15%-40% of H/C demand, EU-28 Renewables ~80%-95% in 2050, EU-28 Excess heat integration Transition to 4th generation district heating Decarbonisation of electricity generation ~14%-20% of H/C sector covered by electricity Smart solutions, sector coupling and making use of the heating sector as a flexibility option for an increasingly volatile RES-E generation Local, regional, national heat planning and mapping 15

13 Can the electricity system cope with the additional electricity demand from heat pumps?

14 Electricity demand for heating and cooling Decrease of electricity demand for heating due to more efficient buildings and substitution of direct electric heaters Strong increase (>+200%) in electricity demand for space cooling

15 Total sytsem total system load load due [GW to ] el H/C (Gw el ) Electricity load for heating and cooling, EU 28, ambitious scenario hour Electrical loads in winter are not expected to increase in scenarios Uptake of decentral heat pumps expected to be feasible Demand peaks in summer could increase significantly

16 Can the electricity system cope with the additional electricity demand from heat pumps? Yes, IF building refurbishment is gaining momentum Reducing energy demand Reducing required temperature levels heat pumps are applied in suitable buildings (i.e. buildings requiring moderate inlet temperature levels of the heating system) to allow efficient operation with acceptable COP

17 Ingredients for H/C decarbonisation scenarios Building refurbishment and efficiency improvements (~40% to >50% reduction of heat demand , EU-28) Decentral renewables: Biomass, Heat pumps, Solar 40%-60% of H/C demand in 2050, EU-28 District heating: Expansion and high connection rates ~15%-40% of H/C demand, EU-28 Renewables ~80%-95% in 2050, EU-28 Excess heat integration Transition to 4th generation district heating Decarbonisation of electricity generation ~14%-20% of H/C sector covered by electricity Smart solutions, sector coupling and making use of the heating sector as a flexibility option for an increasingly volatile RES-E generation Local, regional, national heat planning and mapping 20

18 West Denmark Wind Production West Denmark Electricity Demand West Denmark Wind Production Integrated energy systems and power-to-heat as flexibility option? System electricity System intermittent supply Dispatch Marginal Dispatch Electricity Exchange exchange System System electricity intermittent demand supply System electricity demand M D Wind, Solar, Wind, solar, etc. Fuels Fuels Solar etc. Solar, Conversion to electricity Conversion to electricity Poly-fuel CHP generation Poly-fuel generation Conversion to heat Conversion to heat Electric boiler E- Boiler Heat pump Heatpumps Electricity storage Electricity storage Cold Storage Cold storage Heat Storage Heat storage Fuel storage Wind, solar, etc. Electricity Electricity Cooling Fuels Heat Cold Mobility Solar etc. Heat Mobility Co to P ge Co Resource Process Storage Demand Resource Fuel storage Source: according to Blarke et al, 2013

19 Thermische Leistung [MW th ] Smart heating and electricity system modelling Hourly loads of electrical heating Modelling on electricity system level Load in electricity system (temperature dependent) Electricity prices + forecasts Smart heating: Potentials, Concepts and Models Response of heating and cooling Flexible operation of heat generators in district heating grids Baseload (z.b. Müll, Abwärme, Biomasse) Solarthermie KWK (gasbefeuert) Heizwerke (gasbefeuert) Wärmepumpe Entladen des Speichers Laden des Speichers Wärmenachfrage Stunde des Jahres 22

20 The value of smart, flexible operation of heat pumps Lower heat generation costs of heat pumps of ~6 /MWh Flexible operation of heat pumps reduces systems costs by around -0.5% 25 GW less installed capacity of gas fired power plants Source: Enertile model results in Hartner et al, 2018,

21 Ingredients for H/C decarbonisation scenarios Building refurbishment and efficiency improvements (~40% to >50% reduction of heat demand , EU-28) Decentral renewables: Biomass, Heat pumps, Solar 40%-60% of H/C demand in 2050, EU-28 District heating: Expansion and high connection rates ~15%-40% of H/C demand, EU-28 Renewables ~80%-95% in 2050, EU-28 Excess heat integration Transition to 4th generation district heating Decarbonisation of electricity generation ~14%-20% of H/C sector covered by electricity Smart solutions, sector coupling and making use of the heating sector as a flexibility option for an increasingly volatile RES-E generation Local heat planning and mapping 24

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23 Hotmaps Funded by the Horizon 2020 programme of the European Union The Hotmaps project develops a toolbox that supports heating and cooling mapping and planning processes. Development of a toolbox that will be: User-driven: developed in collaboration with pilot areas Open source: the developed tool will run without requiring any other commercial tool or software and the code will be accessible EU-28 compatible: the tool will be applicable for cities in all 28 EU Member States The experts behind the project: 17 partners combining scientific institutions and pilot areas for developing and testing the tool Contact: info@hotmaps-project.eu Project duration: October 2016-September 2020

24 Decarbonisation is an opportunitiy and a challenge. ALL ingredients for H/C decarbonisation will be required Building refurbishment and efficiency improvements Decentral renewables: Biomass, Heat pumps, Solar Renewable district heating Decarbonisation of electricity generation Smart solutions, sector coupling and making use of the heating sector as a flexibility option for an increasingly volatile RES-E generation Local heat planning and mapping 27

25 Orig. Photo: Patrick Stargardt Thank you! eeg.tuwien.ac.at