Solar Energy ;; A pillar of The Sustainable Energy Kingdom

Transcription

1 Solar Energy;; A pillar of The Sustainable Energy Kingdom

2 April 17, 2010 Royal Decree No. A/35 3/5/1431 A.H. 2

3 Royal Vision Sustainability Reliability Extending the Life of Oil Electricity generation & Desalination

4 Solar Energy Development Targets 4

5 Maximizing Return Oil Saved Economic Sector Sustainability How Much Can We Do? Demand Growth Demand Pattern Technology Characteristics How Much Should We Do? Economics Sustainability Technology maturity 5

6 Target Solar Capacity by 2032 Maximizing solar deployment Return 41 GW 6

7 Target Solar Capacity by 2032 Maximizing solar deployment return Solar PV 16 GW Solar CSP 25 GW 7

8 Target Solar Capacity by 2032 Energy Generation* Contribution (TWh/y) % Solar PV Solar CSP % * Load factor: PV = , CSP =

9 Hydrocarbon Fuel Saved Hydrocarbon Fuel Saved** (MMBOE/y) Hydrocarbon Fuel Saved** (MBOE/D) Solar PV Solar CSP (MBOE/D) * Load factor: PV = , CSP = ** Average hydrocarbon plant efficiency = 45% 9

10 RE Capacity Installed by Technology GW in KSA % of Rest Middle East & Africa Wind PV Biomass 2 CSP Geothermal 29% 37% 27% 68% 33% KSA % of World 1% 4% 2% 36% 3% KSA Rest of Middle East Africa Rest of the World 10

11 Solar Energy Deployment Roadmap GW Cumulative installed capacity, GW Solar CSP Solar PV Years 11

12 K 12

13 Policies & Strategies Execution Regulatory Investment & Business R&D & Innovation International Relations Human Capacity Mandate K.A.CARE City 13

14 Established by Royal Order April 17, 2010, the Mission is to be: driving force for making atomic and renewable energy an integral part of a national sustainable energy mix, creating and leveraging the competitive advantages of relevant technologies for the social and economic development of the 14

15 Key K.A.CARE Objectives CREATE a sustainable economic sector for Saudi Arabia anchored by local alternative energy demand market CONTRIBUTE to job creation, GDP growth, environmental footprint reduction and sustainable development MAINTAIN highest levels of safety, security and transparency 15

16 Execution of K.A.CARE Mandate SUGGEST alternative energy mix Sustainable and efficient energy future for KSA DEVELOP & LEAD execution plans PLAN for and BUILD physical city 16

17 Building the Optimum New Energy Mix 17

18 Peak Power Demand Will Nearly Triple in Next GW GW YIC System SOA Remote SOA System WOA Remote WOA System COA Remote COA System EOA Remote EOA System Source: ECRA

19 Gap between peak demand and existing + planned capacity 140 Peak Demand 120 v v New Committed Existing Diesel 100 v Existing HFO GW GW (Approx.) v v Existing Crude Existing Gas Year 19

20 Energy Consumption Patterns Total of 193,472 GWH Commercial 12.2% Agricultural 2.6% Industrial 17.9% Building 79.5% Governmental 15.1% Residential 52.2% 70% consumed by HVAC Source: Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)

21 Parameters Affecting Energy Mix Development Value chain development Economics of hydrocarbons saved Energy Mix Electricity and desalination demand patterns Human capacity development Regulatory and physical infrastructure requirements Technology choices 21

22 Annual Electricity Demand Pattern in KSA Seasonal change in peak load exceeds 40% MW Week Number (July 2009 August 2010) 22

23 Day-Night Load Variation for Saudi Arabia Uniform day-to-night variation year round GW Day Night 23

24 Forecasted Daily Electricity Demand Pattern Demand GW Generation Daily load during a work day in August 2032 v v Peak load Base load Daily load during a holiday in January : : : : : 0 0 Time of Day 24

25 Capacity Identification Using Technology Load Matching Approach Start with known hydrocarbon capacity in target year X: (Existing + Committed Retiring) Solar Nuclear + Waste-to-Energy + Geothermal Load Following Base Load Required Additional Capacity 25

26 Technology Installed Capacity Estimation 2032 Start with known hydrocarbon capacity in year 2032: 60.5 GW 41 GW 21 GW Load Following Base Load = 60.5 GW Source: ECRA, SEC, Team Analysis 26

27 Proposed Energy Mix 2032 Solar PV Solar CSP Hydrocarbons Nuclear + Geothermal + Waste-to-Energy 16 GW 25 GW 60.5 GW 21 GW 27

28 Load-Specific Technology Component of the Proposed Energy Mix by 2032 PV will meet total day time demand year round NUCLEAR + GEOTHERMAL + WASTE-TO- ENERGY will meet base-load demand up to night time demand during winter CSP with storage will meet maximum demand difference between PV and base-load technologies HYDROCARBONS will meet the rest of the demand 28

29 Global Solar PV Energy Trends ~10 c$/kwh in GW installed in 2020 (10x) ~7 c$/kwh in Solar electricity costs - utility scale PV (c$/kwh) Global installed capacity (GWp) 29

30 Solar CSP LCOE Today Ouarzazate Concentrated Solar Power IPP in Morocco: Capacity = 160 MW Technology = Parabolic Trough with storage Levelized tariff = c/kwh 30

31 Name of Consortium Tarriff (MAD/KWh) ACWA Power, Saudi Arabia (US$ ) Abengoa, Spain Enel, Italy

32 Solar Value Chain Development 32

33 Manufacturing, EPC and O&M split % total capex and opex throughout the plant lifetime Other Molten salt HTF Steam generator Turbine Structures Absorber Mirrors Other Molten salt Steam turbine Receptor Mirrors Structures Other Module Cell Polysilicon Integrated module manufacturing Integrated module manufacturing Other Nacelle housing Generator Gearbox Rotor blades Tower Other Condenser Pre-heater Cooling tower Turbine EPC Other Fuel & ash handling Turbine & generator Air pollution control Boiler Rest of manufacturing EPC 40 EPC EPC EPC EPC EPC O&M 20 O&M EPC O&M O&M O&M 0 O&M O&M O&M CSP Trough CSP Tower Silicon PV Thin Film PV HCPV Wind Geothermal Waste-toenergy 33

34 Potential RE Value Chain Components CSP Technology 1 Trough Elements Collector Mirror Absorber EPC & O&M Molten Salts HTF Steam turbine and generator Storage Tank Other power block elements Minor elements PV Technology 3 Thin Film 4 HCPV Elements Integrated Module Factory EPC & O&M Inverter Rest of balance of system Integrated Module Factory Tracking System EPC & O&M Inverter Rest of balance of system Technology 6 Wind Elements Blades Towers EPC & O&M Gearbox Generator Power converter Nacelle housing and assembly Bearings Minor elements 2 Tower Heliostat Mirror EPC & O&M Receiver Molten Salts Steam turbine and generator Storage tank Other power block elements Minor elements 5 Silicon EPC & O&M Poly Silicon manufacturing Inverter Wafer Cell Module Rest of balance of system 7 8 Waste-to- Energy EPC & O&M Steam Turbine Boiler Grate Other power block elements Minor elements Geothermal EPC and O&M Steam Turbine Heat exchanger Condenser Minor elements 34

35 Value Chain Development Building a World-Class Solar Energy Sector: Industrial investment Research, development and innovation Technology development Education and training Human capacity development 35

36 Value Chain Development: Beyond the Solar Cell and the Mirror Electricity Generation Industrial Energy Applications Seawater Desalination & Water Management Applications District & Solar Cooling 36

37 Solar Energy and Desalination Solar Energy Photovoltaic cells (PV) Concentrating Solar collectors Electricity Heat Thermal Power Cycle RO MSF Heat Electricity ED MED MSF Electricity To the Grid MVC TVC MED RO TVC ED MVC 37

38 Localization of Solar Industry Maximizing benefits of solar energy requires localization policies highly on local skills cooperation 38

39 Summary New Energies Will : CONTRIBUTE to a sustainable future for Saudi Arabia PRESERVE non-renewable fossil fuel resources SAFEGUARD international energy leadership TRANSFORM KSA into the Kingdom of Sustainable Energy 39

40 The Road to Successful Implementation 40

41 Engagement with Local Stakeholders PPP MoHE, TVTC, SABIC, Aramco, HDF MCI, SAGIA, Chambers of Commerce, MODON, RCJY Commercial Banks KACST, KAUST, SABIC, Aramco, SWCC, SEC Venture Capital Management Firms Commercial Banks MCI, SAGIA, Shura Council SIDF, PIF, SCB MODON, RCJY, MCIT, MoT Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Incentives Infrastructure Economic Sub-Sector 41

42 Engagement with International Stakeholders PPP International universities and training institutions Export credit agencies, technology providers Battelle, Franhofer, CSIRO Venture Capital Management Firms WTO, nuclear bilateral agreements Export credit agencies Multinational/international corporations Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Incentives Infrastructure Economic Sub-Sector 42

43 Clear Developmental Goals PPP Saudization rate for solar energy service industry KSA world leader in CSP technology exports CSP development fully supported through local R&D KSA ownership of world best performing CPV technology Technology and region-based FIT scheme Energy mix not needing incentives anymore Smart grid development and connectedness with MENA region countries Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Incentives Infrastructure Economic Sub-Sector 43

44 Implementation Roadmap: Prioritization Research, Development, and Innovation Value Chain Development Technology Acquisition Infrastructure Human Capacity Development Incentives Policy, Rules and Regulations Human Capacity Development Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Innovation Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Incentives Infrastructure Economic Sub-Sector 44

45 Implementation Roadmap: Sequencing Sustaining sector development Strategic objectives Human Capacity Development Time Sector transition to maturity Sowing the seeds of sector development Human Capacity Development Research, Development, and Innovation Technology Acquisition Infrastructure Value Chain Development Incentives Value Chain Development Research, Development, and Technology Technology Acquisition Policy, Rules and Regulations Incentives Key prerequisites Policy, Rules and Regulations Infrastructure 45

46 Nuclear Energy Contribution 46

47 Analysis of Possible Nuclear Deployment Scenarios GW Scenarios 2030 Program End of Aggressive scenario Capacity (in GW) Production (in TWh) # reactors Cumulative capacity (in GW) GW 14 GW 9.6 GW Balanced scenario Value Maximization scenario Capacity (in GW) Production (in TWh) # reactors Capacity (in GW) Production (in TWh) # reactors Value Maximization scenario Balanced scenario Optimized scenario Capacity (in GW) Production (in TWh) # reactors Aggressive scenario Optimized scenario 47

48 Value Maximization Scenario Capacity in GW and Localization in % Gen III Cumulative Capacity (GW) Cumulative Capacity (GW) Balanced Scenario Offers Trade off Between Pace of Localization and Pace of Reactor Deployment Gen IV & SMR Turnkey Learning Self reliance 80% 100% 15 20% 5 Gen IV commercialization Balanced Scenario Capacity in GW and Localization in % Gen III Gen IV & SMR Turnkey Learning Self reliance 100% 80% 20% 15 Gen IV commercialization Opportunities in the nuclear industry Enables KSA to play a role in the Gen IV and SMR market Self reliance (>80% localization) reached in 2045, 5 years following the expected commercialization of Gen IV reactors Enables the sustainability of the nuclear industrial development Nuclear value chain ready to support Gen IV by 2045 Requires further expansion of current NPP build program by 7 years and ~6 GW to reach a 100% self reliance Opportunities in the nuclear industry Enables KSA become a first mover in the Gen IV and SMR market contingent on the further expansion of current program Self reliance (>80% localization) reached in 2042 at the time where Gen IV is expected to begin commercialization Nuclear value chain ready to support Gen IV Requires further expansion of current NPP build program by 6 years and 4.8 GW to reach 100% self reliance Aggressive Scenario Capacity in GW and Localization in % Gen III Cumulative Capacity (GW) Turnkey 20% Gen IV & SMR 10 0 Gen IV commercialization Opportunities in the nuclear industry No sustainable industrial development opportunity to enable KSA to play a role in Gen IV and SMR market Full reliance on turnkey contractors results in a minimal involvement of the local suppliers in the nuclear program Minimum localization of the nuclear value chain to support Gen IV and SMR 48

49 The Kingdom of Sustainable Energy 49

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