Prairies Provinces Chapter

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1 1 Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action Prairies Provinces Chapter Dave Sauchyn, Director, PARC (University Regina) Coordinating Lead Author

2 2 What are assessments? Credible, useful and decision-relevant products that synthesize existing knowledge on climate change risks, opportunities and adaptation Assessment goals: raise awareness of issues provide a foundation for decision-making build capacity on adaptation through the assessment development process

3 Previous Canadian (national) Products Spin-off products

4 4

5 Key Messages from Prairies Chapter 2008: Increases in water scarcity represent a serious climate risk. Ecosystems will be impacted by shifts in bioclimate and changed disturbance regimes. The Prairies are losing some advantages of a cold winter. Natural resources, and the communities dependent on them, are sensitive to climate variability. Adaptive capacity, though high, is unevenly distributed. Adaptation processes are not well understood. Projected climate change is outside the range of recent experience with natural variability. Most economies and activities are not presently adapted to the larger range of climate conditions projected. Planned adaptation is a component of adaptive management and sustainable economic development. 5

6 6 New approaches to reflect: 1. How information is being consumed Demand for quick, easily accessible and tailored information 2. New technologies that enhance availability and accessibility Web-based applications 3. The prominence of climate change as a government priority and a public policy issue Importance of ensuring discussions are informed by the best available knowledge

7 This new approach includes: Key messages: to focus chapters on priority issues Multiple products released throughout the process; include writing for multiple audiences More inclusive and transparent process input from stakeholders and public Inclusion of Indigenous knowledge (guidance to be provided) Early and sustained engagement of amplifier organizations; collaborative process and products All writing and figures developed for digital delivery 7

8 8 Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action Launched process with scoping meeting in November 2016 Led by Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division (CCIAD) of NRCan (Don Lemmen and Fiona Warren) Advisory Committee formed February 2017 Meetings of Coordinating Lead Authors in Halifax (10/17), Toronto (03/18), Ottawa (10/18)

9 9 Target Audiences Canadian adaptation practitioners, decision-makers and their advisers with responsibility for developing and implementing policies, programs and plans,. intermediary organizations (amplifiers), who can repackage the assessment findings in ways most relevant to specific audiences. Secondary audiences include educators, researchers, and the informed public.

10 10 Scope of the knowledge to be assessed Existing knowledge, from the following sources: relevant peer-reviewed articles; broader literature, such as government reports, NGO/private sector publications and websites; Indigenous knowledge that can be referenced; documented knowledge based on practical learning experiences (e.g., case studies, planning or engineering reports; survey results); and international articles that can help benchmark how Canada compares to other countries, and highlight relevant examples from which we could learn. In all cases, maintaining scientific credibility is of paramount importance and authors are expected to carefully assess the available knowledge to determine each source s relevancy and reliability before including the findings in the chapter.

11 Products will be released over next 4 years:

12 Canada in a Changing Climate - Regional Perspectives British Columbia Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Provinces Northern Canada Approaches may differ Canada in a Changing Climate- National Issues Our Society Urban Rural Indigenous Our Environment Water Resources Ecosystem Services Our Economy Costing Impacts and Adaptation Economic Sector Perspectives Looking Forward International Dimensions New and Emerging Issues 12

13 Coordinating Lead Authors and Advisory Committee Chapter Coordinating Lead Author(s) Advisory Committee Advisor British Columbia Robert Gifford, University of Victoria Thomas White, British Columbia Climate Action Secretariat Prairies Dave Sauchyn, University of Regina Elaine Fox, Province of Manitoba Ontario David Pearson, Laurentian University Linda Morstch, University of Waterloo Quebec Caroline Larivée, Ouranos Pierre Gosselin, Quebec Public Health Institute Atlantic Provinces Sabine Dietz, Aster Group Robert Capozi, New Brunswick Climate Change Secretariat Northern Canada Bronwyn Hancock, Yukon College Rebecca World, Yukon Government's Climate Change Secretariat Setting the Stage Fiona Warren, NRCan Marjorie Shepherd, ECCC Fred Lipschultz, U.S. Global Change Research Program Urban Craig Brown, Independent Researcher Patricia Manuel, Dalhousie University Rural and Remote Kelly Vodden, Memorial University Ewa Jackson, ICLEI Canada Indigenous Anne Kendrick, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami Graeme Reed, Assembly of First Nations Water Ecosystem Services Al Pietroniro, ECCC Michelle Molnar, David Suzuki Foundation Susan Evans, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Ellen Curtis, Royal Canadian Geographic Society Costing Richard Boyd, All One Sky Foundation Gord Beal, Chartered Professional Accountants Economic Sectors Don Lemmen, NRCan David Lapp, Engineers Canada International Jimena Eyzaguirre, ESSA Technologies Stewart Cohen, ECCC Jim Vanderwal, Fraser Basin Council New & Emerging Issues Paul Kovacs, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction 13

14 Overview of the Assessment Process The Assessment Process Outlines, scope, approach Writing teams assess the knowledge Finalizing content, editing, translation, layout etc. Scoping Meeting- Nov Teams of 6-15 authors led by a CLA Extensive external review process Plan to release chapters as complete

15 15 Stakeholder Survey The survey was drafted and externally reviewed during March It was ed to over 800 stakeholders in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba on April 9, The survey was also made available through the PRAC web site. Responses were provided either by submission of a Word document or Google form. Reminder s were sent in mid-april. A total of 106 responses were received by the end of April Jo-Ellen Parry Adaptation Lead, Resilience program International Institute for Sustainable Development

16 Respondents Survey Respondents by Sector Academia 21% Provincial Government 19% Other 5% Municipal Government 15% Private Sector 13% Indigenous government organization 5% Non-governmental organization 22%

17 Climate Risks Extreme weather events 11 Changes to temperature patterns 8 Changes to precipitation patterns 6 Wind 4 Snow cover changes 2 Jet stream

18 I ll believe in climate change when we get unexpected weather Irrigation District Manager April, 2015

19 Biophysical Risks

20 Potential Socio-economic Implications

21 Sectors of Interest

22 22 Proposed generic chapter outline Introduction: to region, goals, structure Context /Background: what s needed to understand the key messages (past assessments, necessary climate science info, importance of issue, key characteristics of region, etc.) Key Messages Aim for 5-10: A single bolded sentence, with a maximum of one additional sentence that supports / directly builds on the bolded statement A full, plain language, paragraph that provides the key points A conventional write-up, including subheadings, text boxes, case studies, figures and tables, all relating to the key message. Ensure all relevant knowledge sources are drawn upon Conclusion Are we making progress on adaptation? Where, how, and why (or why not)? Emerging Issues, Knowledge gaps

23 23 Context /Background o Diverse region from Rocky Mountains to subarctic Canadian shield; and from large cities to remote rural communities o More than 80% of Canada s agricultural land and most of the country s irrigated land o Exposed to projected temperature increases that are greater than elsewhere in southern Canada. o The water resources, ecosystems and resource economies are sensitive to variations in climate (e.g. drought) o Relatively large urban indigenous population o Non-renewable resources - oil and gas, mining a major economic driver o Periodic rapid economic growth (especially in Alberta), a population shift from rural to urban

24 24 Prairies Chapter - Key Issues Impacts on forest and grassland ecosystems and natural capital Hydroclimatic extremes: impacts on and adaption to flooding and drought Incremental climate changes (trends) versus shifts in variability and climate extremes Agriculture: Opportunities and climate risks Vulnerable social groups: rural and indigenous communities, poverty Progress / mainstreaming of adaptation planning o Adaptive response of industry o Cities at the forefront of adaptation and resilience planning Lack of (or loss of) adaptive capacity

25 25 Case Studies The Calgary flood of 2013 Fort McMurray fire of 2016 Regional (e.g., watershed) adaptation planning Urban (e.g., Edmonton) adaptation and resilience strategies

26 Prairie Chapter - Lead and Contributing Authors Name Affiliation Dave Sauchyn PARC (U of R) Debra Davidson U of A Mark Johnston SRC Amber Fletcher U of R Brenda Parlee U of A David Natcher U of S Elaine Wheaton U of S Ian Mauro PCC (U of W) Jeremy Pittman Waterloo Kendra Isaac GoA Maureen Reed U of S Megan Van Ham Alberta WaterSmart Mike Flannigan U of A Richard Schneider U of A Suren Kulshreshtha U of S

27 Overall Timeline Release of CCCR External meetings for input Poll on FAQs Writing begins Release of National Issues and Regional Perspectives volumes Survey on targeted products External review of main reports Writing of Synthesis Release of chapters as complete Release of Health Assessment Release of Synthesis 2021 Scoping Meetings Planning Establish Advisory Committee Launch interactive website Build writing teams Public survey on impacts impacts-adaptation/19918