The State of Germany s Energy Transition

Transcription

1 The State of Germany s Energy Transition June 8, 2018 Materials will be available at: Tweet about the briefing:

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3 Energiewende Germany s energy system and the status of the energy transition Thorsten Herdan, Director General Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Washington DC, June 8th Referent 3

4 Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2016, UBA 2018, AGEB 2018 The Energiewende is Germany s long-term energy and climate strategy Achieved Climate % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) 27.6% (2016) to to Renewable Energy % gross electricity consumption % gross final energy consumption 36.2% 36% 14.8% (2016) to to Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) -6.0% -6% Energy Efficiency Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) 1.1% p.a. (2016) -15.9% (2015) 4,380 PJ (2008) +2.1% p.a. ( ) Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005) +1.3% (2015) to to -20 6/8/2018 4

5 Gross electricity production in TWh Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2018 Renewables have become Germany s No. 1 source of electricity ,8 600,2 Electricity mix in 2017 (654.8 TWh in total) nuclear; 11.7% lignite; 22.5% hard coal; 14.1% gas; 13.2% RES: 33.3% mineral oil & others; 5.1% wind onshore; 13.6% offshore; 2.7% solar; 6.1% biomass & waste; 7.9% hydro; 3.1% hard coal lignite natural gas mineral oil others nuclear renewables electricity consumption 6/8/2018 5

6 SMARD: showing the electricity mix of Germany 6/8/2018 6

7 Index 1990=100 Source: Ecofys 2017 based on UBA 2017, World Bank 2017, AG Energiebilanzen 2017 Efficiency measures allow clean growth by decoupling economic development from energy consumption status * final energy productivity final energy productivity target GDP primary energy demand primary energy demand target GHG emissions GHG emissions target * status 2015 National targets: +2.1% final energy productivity p.a. 2020/2050: 20/50% reduction vs : 80-95% reduction vs /8/2018 7

8 Thank you for your attention Contact details Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie Scharnhorststr Berlin Thorsten Herdan Referent 8

9 2018 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without attributing Bloomberg Finance L.P. and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. For more information on terms of use, please contact Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. GET THE FACTS

10 U.S. economic growth no longer relies on expanding energy consumption U.S. GDP and primary energy consumption 2.0 Indexed to 1990 levels In the past 10 years: % 1.6 GDP (indexed) % 1.0 Primary energy consumption (indexed) ' '05 '10 '17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, BNEF Notes: Values for 2017 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through October 2017) GDP estimate is a projection from economists compiled at ECFC <GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal. 10 February 15, 2018

11 Sustainable energy resources have become an established part of U.S. power U.S. electricity generation by fuel type (% of total generation) 9% 11% 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 18% 22% 24% 24% 25% 31% 28% 28% 33% 34% 32% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% Renewables (including hydro) Natural gas Nuclear In the past 10 years*: +90% +47% 2% Oil 48% 44% 45% 42% 37% 39% 39% 33% 30% 30% Coal -38% Source: EIA, BNEF Note: Values for 2017 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through November 2017). *Percentage changes over the past 10 years are for share of total generation, not for the absolute number of MWh generated. 11 February 15, 2018

12 Renewable build also neared a record in 2017, amidst policy uncertainty U.S. renewable build by technology U.S. cumulative renewable capacity 25 GW 22.7 Hydro 250 GW Geothermal Biomass, biogas, wasteto-energy Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Notes: All values are shown in AC except solar, which is included as DC capacity. Numbers include utility-scale (>1MW) projects of all types, rooftop solar, and small- and medium-sized wind. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Notes: All values are shown in AC except solar, which is included as DC capacity. Hydropower capacity and generation exclude pumped storage facilities (unlike in past Factbooks). Totals may not sum due to rounding. 12 February 15, 2018

13 Electricity is making up a smaller share of household bills than ever before Electricity and natural gas as share of total consumption expenditure 2.5% Total energy goods and services as share of total consumption expenditure 10% Electricity 2.0% 8% Total energy expenditures 1.5% 6% 1.3% 1.0% Natural gas 4% <4% 0.5% 2% 0.4% 0.0% % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, BNEF Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, BNEF 13 February 15, 2018

14 Clean energy is no longer expensive: Wind, solar contracts are economic in parts of the U.S. Wind, solar power purchase agreement price ranges (estimated) and power price ranges by region 100 $/MWh (nominal) Power price range Solar PPA range Wind PPA range 20 0 Solar Wind Solar Wind Solar Wind Solar Wind Solar Wind Solar Wind Solar Wind ERCOT Southwest California Southeast PJM MISO New York Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, SEC filings, interviews, analyst estimates Notes: MISO is the Midwest region; PJM is the Mid-Atlantic region; SPP is the Southwest Power Pool which covers the central southern U.S.; NEPOOL is the New England region; ERCOT covers most of Texas. Wholesale power prices are based on market-traded futures for calendar year 2018 for select nodes within each region. 14 February 15, 2018

15 Power sector emissions have plunged, taking down total U.S. emissions Emissions by sector Economy-wide and energy sector emissions 2,500 MtCO2e 8,000 MtCO2e 7,500 2,000 1,500 Transportation Power Industry 7,000 6,500 Total GHG emissions, 1990 Total (gross) GHG emissions 6,000 1,000 Buildings 5,500 Energy sector GHG emissions 500 Agriculture, other 5,000 4, ' '05 '10 '17 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: Values for 2017 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on monthly values from EIA available through October , ' '05 '10 '17 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: Values for 2017 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on monthly values from EIA available through October February 15, 2018

16 Corporations Are Still In (Part I) Renewable capacity contracted by corporations, by technology 3.5 Annual gigawatts Cumulative gigawatts Largest corporate offtakers, 2017 MW Apple Inc Google Inc Kimberly-Clark Facebook Inc General Motors Co T-Mobile USA Anheuser-Busch InBev NV Bay Area Rapid Transit Solar Wind Other YTD 2 0 General Mills Target Corp Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Charts show offsite PPAs only Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Charts show offsite PPAs only 16 February 15, 2018

17 Corporations Are Still In (Part II) Key players: Corporate clean energy procurement Key players: Corporate energy efficiency Retail Manufacturing Financial & Insurance Automotive Tech Retail Food & Beverage Financials Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, The Climate Group, company announcements, DOE Note: Corporate clean energy procurement key players are companies that signed onto the RE100 in Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, The Climate Group, company announcements, DOE Note: The key corporate energy efficiency players displayed here are drawn from EP100 members and the list of ISO certified facilities. ISO certification means that a company has met established efficiency standards at one or more of its facilities. 17 February 15, 2018

18 Distributed Energy Systems Siemens AG 2017 siemens.com

19 From centralized, unidirectional grid Siemens AG 2017 Page 19

20 to distributed energy and bidirectional energy balancing Increased Reliability Smart building & thermal storage Heater, chiller, heat station Reduced Energy Costs Improved Grid Resilience Storage solutions Reduced Carbon Footprint Enhanced Control Controllable transformer Microgrid controller Microgrid Private wind or solar Diesel generator Electrical vehicle infrastructure Siemens AG 2017 Page 20 Building / data center Nanogrid DC grid

21 Distributed energy systems market Shift in fuel mix New installations worldwide in GW p.a. 0.9% ~444 XY H 2 O XH YOH Competitiveness of new technologies ~373 49% 2.0% ~358 62% 3.0% 67% Favorable regulation Capacity build-out: Renewables overtaking fossil 51% % 38% % 33% 2030 Decentralized Centralized Siemens AG 2017 Page 21 Sources: IHS (2016), Bloomberg (2016)

22 Siemens Solutions to Meet the Evolving Needs of the Distributed Energy Market Strategic Investments Siemens Portfolio Financing & Commercial Options Rolls Royce aero-gas turbine business acquisition Dresser-Rand acquisition (includes Guascor engines) On-site Generation Energy efficiency solutions Storage solutions Innovative financing and ownership solutions to solve Customer challenges Siemens AG 2017 Page 22 Siemens Gamesa wind business merger Siemens Gamesa wind business merger Automation Renewables Microgrid / Distribution Turnkey Project Delivery Design, Build, Own, Operate, Maintain (DBOOM) Solar PPA Energy Efficiency Services Agreement (Conserv TM ) Performance Contracting Proven Outcomes Digital Remote Services

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