Life Cycle Assessment. Photovoltaic Systems. of Present and Future LCA. M. de Wild-Scholten (4), V. Fthenakis (5), H.C. Kim (5)

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1 Life Cycle Assessment of Present and Future Photovoltaic Systems M. Raugei (1), P. Frankl (2), E. Alsema (3), M. de Wild-Scholten (4), V. Fthenakis (5), H.C. Kim (5) (1) Ambiente Italia, Italy (2) IEA, France (3) Utrecht University, The Netherlands (4) ECN, The Netherlands (5) BNL and Columbia University, NY, USA AIST Symposium Expectations and Advanced Technologies in Renewable Energy Chiba, Japan, 11 October 27 LCA 2

2 PV Technologies Silicon-based Crystalline Si Amorphous Si Thin Film Singe-crystalline Si CdTe SOLAR ELECTRICITY Non-silicon-based Thin Film CIS New Concept Devices Multi-crystaline Si Ribbon cast multi-crystalline Si Organic-based PV Solar Concentrator Systems Quantum cells 3 The Life Cycle of PV 4

3 Energy Pay-Back Time 5 Global Warming Potential 6

4 GWP Benchmark (present) Coal Oil Gas CC Biomass CHP PV mc-si Nuclear USA PV CdTe Wind Sources: ExternE project, 23; Kim and Dale, 25; Fthenakis and Kim, 26; Fthenakis and Alsema, 26; Fthenakis and Kim, in press. 7 Life-Cycle Cd emissions Source: Fthenakis, 26 8

5 Normalized impact scores (CML 2) mc-si Most significant impacts: global warming } acidification mostly caused by energy consumption human toxicity Source: CRYSTALCLEAR project 9 CONCLUSIONS (I): Strong points of PV technology Large installation potential GHG emissions reasonably low Zero or near-zero emissions of toxic substances (direct emissions) Potential for further improvement in GHG/EPBT 1

6 CONCLUSIONS (I): Issues which need attention Reduce energy consumption (and GHG emission) in solar cell production Reduce dependency on scarce metals (In, Te, Ag) Close the material cycles (recycling) Zero-emission production facilities 11 FUTURE OUTLOOK CRYSTALCLEAR Project 1 (c-si PV) 1,9 1,7 1,5 status 26 status 24 Standard techn. 26: Siemens SoG feedstock Si cons. <1 g/wp cell eff. 15% EPBT (yr) 1,3 1,1,9,7,5, 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, Si consumption (g/wp) Improvements: reduce Si consumption cell eff -> 17% cell eff -> 19% --- switch to FBR feedstock Siemens feedstock 15% Siemens feedstock 17% Siemens feedstock 19% FBR feedstock 15% FBR feedstock 17% FBR feedstock 19%

7 c-si PV Outlook Energy Pay-Back Time for Future Silicon PV (rooftop system, S.-Europe) En d of life - S hares R ER: LANDFILL PC W ITHOUT HOUS ING OFFICE R ER: LANDFILL HOUS ING OFFICE RER : LANDFILL MONITOR CR T R ER: LANDFILL MONITOR TFT R ECYCLING P C W ITHOUT HOUS ING RECYCLING HOUS ING p R ECYCLING MONITOR p CR T RECYCLING MONITOR p TFT p INCINERATION P C W ITHOUT MONITOR INCINERATION HOUS ING INCINERATION MONITOR CR T INCINER ATION MONITOR TFT p X NOX Stratosphere 15-5 km Absorption Absorption UV - radiation H 2 SO 44 Air pollution N2O Hydrocarbons Nitrogen oxides UV - radiation HNO 3 NH3 Infrared radiation Waste water CFCs Nitrogen oxide Ozone Absorption Reflection -3 PO4 CO2 SO 2 CFCs CH4 NO X Fertilisation NO3 - NH4+ Dry and warm climate Hydrocarbons Nitrogen oxides Energy Pay-Back Time (yr) present multi 13.2% future multi 17% future multi 17%, wind el Life-cycle CO2 emissions of PV (grid-connected, roof-top PV system; irradiation 17 kwh/m2/yr) multi-si PV 13.2% Energy Pay Back Time can be halved, to < 1 year; CO 2-eq emission can be reduced to 15 g/kwh, with use of green electricity to 1 g/kwh. future multi 17% future multi 17% wind el. 13 FUTURE OUTLOOK - NEEDS Project 2 1. Technology diffusion scenario analysis 3 different scenarios 2. Technology development path Factors affecting technological development Technology shift 3. Parametric LCA for each scenario With and without change of background system LCI 2 TE C H N O LO G Y m c-s i: m ulti-crystalline Literature data Estimated data Calculated data KEY PARAMETERS U nit Module efficiency % 13,2% 16,% 18,% 21,% 2 3,% 25,% M odule technical life yea rs 25, 3, 35, 4, 4 5, 5, M aterial consumption Silicon Externa l Fee dstock kg/kw p 12,82 7,82 3,91 3,15 2,9 2,7 6 (mass/kw p) W afer thickness µm 3, 18, 1, 1, 1, 1, Kerf loss µm 2, 16, 15, 15, 15, 15, g C O 2 e q/ Environmental impact 31, 23, , kw h el M J/kW p Cost/Prices (module) /W p 3, 2, 1,,7,6,5 Product system modelling Environmental evaluation Generic Modules LCIA atmosphere the the in ace gases ace Tr pr 4. Estimate of External Costs LCA

8 Three Development Scenarios Pessimistic Current incentives not supported long enough for PV technology to ever become competitive. Growth of world PV market severely stunted by 225. Optimistic / Realistic c-si, thin films and new concept devices likely to co-exist. Initial growth according to industry (EPIA) predictions; after 225 reduced growth rates (GP/EREC). Very optimistic / Technological Breakthrough Bold (quadratic) annual growth rates as early as 21. By mid 23 s large scale energy storage infrastructure available; very rapid expansion of new concept devices after Cumulative Installed Capacity (World) GWp Pessimistic Optimistic / Realistic V. Optimistic / Techn. Breakthrough 16

9 V.Optimistic Cum. Capacity Technology Technology Specification (3 scenarios) GWp sc-si crystalline-si mc-si ,9 thin films novel devices crystalline-si thin films novel devices a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell sc-si mc-si a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell c-si layer thickness um N/A N/A N/A N/A Module efficiency 22% 2% 2% 12% 15% 2% 18% 1% 35% 35% 28% 25% 25% 16% 2% 25% 22% 17% 5% 5% Module lifetime years Installed capacity GWp Market share % 5% 45% 5% 15% 35% 5% Opt. / Realistic Cum. Capacity Technology GWp sc-si mc-si a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell sc-si mc-si a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell c-si layer thickness um N/A N/A N/A N/A Module efficiency 22% 2% 2% 12% 15% 2% 18% 1% 35% 35% 25% 22% 22% 14% 18% 25% 22% 15% 4% 4% Module lifetime years Installed capacity GWp Market share % 5% 45% 5% 35% 35% 3% Pessimistic Cum. Capacity Technology GWp sc-si crystalline-si mc-si thin films 225 novel devices a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell sc-si mc-si crystalline-si 2,4 thin films crystalline-si thin films novel devices crystalline-si thin films novel devices novel devices a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell c-si layer thickness um N/A N/A N/A N/A Module efficiency 17% 14% 14% 12% 1% 14% 12% N/A 22% 18% 18% 12% 15% 18% 16% 1% 35% 35% Module lifetime years 3 25 N/A Installed capacity GWp Market share % 85% 15% % 5% 45% 5% Preliminary Results LCI results ( Optimistic / Realistic scenario) with adjusted background data Comparison present, 225, 25 1,8 kwh/(m2*yr) on tilted roof, south-oriented , g CO2 / kwh ,3 4,6 8,2 3, 7, single crystalline present c-si 225 CdTe 225 c-si 25 CdTe 25 Concentrator GaInP/GaAs 25 18

10 Benchmark Future PV Systems kg CO2-Eq/kWh,45,4,35,3,25,2,15,1 GWP of different energy technologies (source: Elaboration from Ecoinvent 23 using IPCC method),5, PV present (mc-si) Hydro max Wind RER Nuclear UCTE PV future (average) Hydro min For comparison (present): Coal= 75-9 g CO 2 /kwh; Gas CC = 4 g CO 2 /kwh UCTE mix = 454 g CO 2 /kwh 19 CONCLUSIONS (II) SUSTAINABILITY OF PV Low PV life cycle emissions already today Expected to further decrease by an order of magnitude by 25 2 orders of magnitude lower than fossils Lower than nuclear 2