BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group

Transcription

1 BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group Dinner Table Discussion Baltic Sea Scenarios Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Helge Ørsted Pedersen

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4 The Future Danish Energy System CO 2 -emissions: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 1990 Oil consumption: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 2004 The Danish Board of Technology: Future Panel Danish Parliamentarians Steering group with stakeholders Public hearing, workshops and seminars Scenario report + project newsletters to the Parliament Modeling tool and data STREAM Used for education at Danish Technical University and Roskilde University

5 PJ 1000 Denmark s gross energy consumption Coal Natural gas RE Oil 2007 Energy Policy Securty of supply + Economy + Environment + Climate + Preparedness Infrastructure Liberalisation Organisation Market Energy and heat planning Market + Framework Technology Export 5 b. kr. 46 b. kr. Self-Suffieciency 0 % 145 % GDP District Heating 0,7 mio. households 1,5 mio. households

6 The Danish Board of Technology The Future Energy System Dinner debate in the Danish Parliament in May 2006

7 Combination Scenario Gross energy consumption Gross

8 5 stakeholder workshops on key measures

9 Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030 Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction Prepared by The Danish Board of Technology RISØ DTU Jan 2007 Oct 2008

10 Process of dialogue Politicians Answers Utilities Energy planners Project developers Researchers Questions Others

11 Phase I Phase II Workshop Dinner debate Final workshop MEPs Stakeholders Experts -Energy -Transport -Savings MEPs Dialogue on - targets - measures - scenarios Scenario report Road-map Model tool+data Public model tool - STREAM Draft report STREAM updated, data, and scenarios Website Dissemination Nov/Dec Feb. - March April - May 2008 Sep. - Oct.

12 Two scenarios Small-tech Energy savings District heating - CHP Biomass Solar, wind, wave Big-tech Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear power Biomass Improved fuel economy Modal-change Electric vehicles ICT Improved fuel economy Modal-change Electric vehicles Biofuels or perhaps a combination

13 Results PJ Gross energy consumption EU Nuclear RE Natural gas Coal Oil 50% oil target Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-tech

14 Results

15 Resources and security of supply

16 Economic results Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. the average annual capital costs costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs Not considered Health benefits Cost of modal change and improved efficiency in transport Transaction costs related to implementation Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections Therefore: interpret results with caution

17 Economics Fuel price projections Low (IEA projection 2007*) High (Prices in September 2008) Small-tech Oil (USD/bbl) Gas ($/MBtu) Coal ($/ton) CO2: 45 /t million /year Annuitised cost - extra costs in Small-Tech compared to reference (case with low fuel price) million /year Annuitised cost - extra costs in Big-Tech compared to reference (case with low fuel price) 200, , , ,000 0 Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total 0 Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total -100, , , , , , , ,000

18 Municipalities/ cities Goals EU s quota system To utilise practical experience Planning Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating Taxes and incentives Research, Development and Education Transnational planning of offshore windmills City planning and transport policies Green Campaigns Local Commitment CO2 Neutral Houses Existing buildings Urban districts To develop energy efficient vehicles Energy labelling and dynamic norms Demonstration of flexible energy system Consumers - Producers Hydro Wind District Heating Public Purchase Policy Electric/plug-in hybrid cars/buses Intelligent Energy System Global EU Member states Local

19 Energy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction in 2030 Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Prepared by