Coal Conversion to Products

Transcription

1 World CTL Coal Conversion to Products Serge Périneau World CTL CFFSKN February 14,

2 Coal Conversion to Products Framework Energy Security & Logistics Stakes Technologies Environment Economics Current Development Commercial Units Projects and Operations International Co-operation CFFSKN February 14,

3 Coal Conversion Energy Security CFFSKN February 14,

4 A Growing Demand in Oil in the Medium Term Oil consumption (bbl/day) Transport Industry Power Residential Marine Rail Aviation Light duty Heavy duty «Current Policies» Scenario 450 ppm Scenario Source: IEA s World Energy Outlook 2012 CFFSKN February 14,

5 Fossil Fuels: a Regional Security Issue Reserves of Conventional Fossil Fuels (Reserves/Consumption) Source: BP Statistical Review 2011 Coal reserves modified for China, Indonesia, Mongolia CFFSKN February 14,

6 Logistic Stakes Spots with logistic stakes CFFSKN February 14,

7 Coal Conversion Technology CFFSKN February 14,

8 Technologies: conventional conversion routes Indirect routes Great Plains, ND (USA) Synthetic Gas - CO+H2 Methanation Lu An (China) Natural Gas Gasification Surface/ Underground Fischer-Tropsch Secunda (RSA) Refining Yitai (China) Liquid Fuels Coal Methanol Methanol To Gasoline Liquid Fuels Jamg (Shanxi, China) Methanol To Olefins Petrochemicals Direct route Baotou (I. Mongolia) Dissolution Liquefaction Hydrotreatment Refining Liquid Fuels Majiata (Inner Mongolia) CFFSKN February 14,

9 Coal Conversion Environment CFFSKN February 14,

10 Environment: Coal is most controversial March 2, 2009, Washington DC (Reuters) March 26, 2009, World CTL Conference «Coal is My Worst Nightmare» Steven Chu, Nobel physicist, U.S. Energy Secretary CFFSKN February 14,

11 Environment: Local Stakes Three steps: Coal mining: need for a responsible sourcing Conversion itself Need for water: 1 to 2 m3 per barrel: an issue in several regions Ashes, gaseous and liquid noxious emissions: managed through classical chemical processes Combustion: synthetic fuels are purer than from conventional fuels. Volatile org. CO Nitrogen oxides Part. matter (<10 ppm) Sulfur oxides 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) CFFSKN February 14,

12 Global Issue: GreenHouse Gas Emissions Case 1: Diesel produces from coal without CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage) Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile): % Diesel from crude oil CTL diesel w/o CCS Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *) CFFSKN February 14,

13 Global Issue: CCS & Biomass are CTL s best allies Case 2: Diesel produced from coal with CCS: CCS reduces by 90-95% the CO2 emissions within the CTL plant CCS is now included in most CTL projects. Well to Wheels emissions (grams of CO2 equivalent per mile): % % -4% Reference: conventional diesel % -30% Diesel from crude oil CTL diesel w/o CCS CTL diesel with CCS * CTL diesel with 30% biomass CTL diesel, CCS & 30% biomass CTL diesel, CCS & 15% biomass * Sources: Idaho National Laboratory (2007) and U.S. DOE (2009) (marked *) CFFSKN February 14,

14 CCS: Cost Breakdown Capture $25-75 per tonne CO 2 Transport $1-5 per tonne CO 2 /100 km Injection $1-2 Per tonne CO 2 Source: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change In a CTL plant, CO2 is already captured CFFSKN February 14,

15 Coal Conversion Economics CFFSKN February 14,

16 Crude Barrel Price Equivalent $/bbl - Crude Oil Equivalent Crude yearly average import price (source IEA) RIL IFP: Europe GTC JGC U.S. National Coal Council U.S. DOE JGC JP Morgan U.S. National Research Council PEI Rand PEI U.S. DOE NRC Shenhua Nal Acad. Yitai IFP: USA IFP: China Shenhua SEI Asiachem Technology providers Source: World CTL CFFSKN February 14,

17 Sensitivity Analysis Variation of the Return on Investment in % for +/-25% variation of Other parameters: CO2 impact, subsidies, discount rate, Source: U.S. DOE 2007 CFFSKN February 14,

18 Capital Expenditure x000$ / daily bbl Reported Capex ,000 bpd unit Jindal PEI DOE Nal Acad. RIL Scully Capital NCC SSEB JP Morgan NRC OIL 44 DOE Shenhua Technology providers Source: World CTL CFFSKN February 14,

19 Coal Conversion Current Developments CFFSKN February 14,

20 Many Projects, Several Demonstration Plants Baotou 600,000 tpa 4.3 Mm3/d Great Plans, ND 20,000 bpd Ordos* Fox Creek Leuna Serafimovskiy Irkutsk Yitai* 4,000 bpd Mongolia Lu An* Posco KIER 4,000 bpd RIL Jamnagar Assam JAMG* Tata Sasol Geleximco 2,500 bpd JSPL Philippines CTL&Chem NFL Coal India SNG Bumi & Sasol Projects Lubimbi Operations Mmamabula Waterberg Arckaringa Sasolburg Secunda Spitfire Oil Clinton Methanex Monash Latrobe 160,000 bpd * In 2011 and 2012, Yitai, Lu An, JAMG and Shenhua have anounced large extensions L&M Lignite CFFSKN February 14,

21 CTL projections Forecasts published in the U.S.A. the P.R. China x000 barrels/day 2,750 2,700 x000 barrels/day BTL Shenhua 442 kbpd CTL Shenhua 110 kbpd 50 0 Oil shale Source: U.S. Energy Intelligence Agency (2009) Sources: China Coal Information Institute (2009) and Shenhua (2010) CFFSKN February 14,

22 Gasification Plant Startups China 42 U.S. 0 Source: Gasification Technologies Council, 2012 CFFSKN February 14,

23 CTL projections: International Energy Agency x000 barrels/day India (World CTL 12) JSPL: 80,000 Tata Sasol: 80,000 NFL/Coal India: 5,000 RIL: 80,000 Shenhua 442 kbpd China (decided, 2012) Shenhua: 60,000 Lu An: 40,000 JAMG: 25,000 Yitai: 10,000 A significant increase, but volumes will remain low. Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 CFFSKN February 14,

24 International Co-Operations and World CTL The global leading hub on Coal & Petcoke conversion to Liquid Fuels, SNG and Chemicals A balanced program for CTL stakeholders: Coal, Oil, technology providers, project holders, research centers, suppliers. Rates of satisfaction: ranked excellent or good by 95-98% of participants CFFSKN February 14,

25 Top Speakers and World CTL Award Presentations, networking, appraisal CFFSKN February 14,

26 World CTL Conference Locations 2010 & 2012: Beijing 2013: Shanghai 2009 Washington D.C & 2011 Paris 2012: New Delhi 2013: Mumbai CFFSKN February 14,

27 Conclusion Coal is fully available. Coal conversion answers energy security and logistics concerns. CTL will remain marginal on a global basis. Environment is a key issue. Technology improvement, CCS and Biomass are CTL s best allies. Several Demonstration Plants are now in operation. Extensions in process. CTL is highly competitive at current energy prices, although capital intensive. China has taken the lead, Korea and India also active. International Co-Operations keep developing. World CTL is committed to support this trend. CFFSKN February 14,

28 Thank you. CFFSKN February 14,