The challenge of analyzing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - A perspective from the CLIMB project -

Transcription

1 The challenge of analyzing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - A perspective from the CLIMB project - Ralf Ludwig & CLIMB partners A collaborative research project under the 7th Framework Programme Environment, incl. Climate Change (ENV) 1 Outline Motivation The CLIMB project Framework Work Packages Case Studies The CLIWASEC cluster 2

2 Motivation Relative change in precipitation patterns vs (IPCC WG1-AR4) Relative change in annual runoff vs (Milly et al. 2005) 3 Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Measurements and projections from IPCC (2007) increased temperature, sea level rise, changing precipitation patterns and amounts extended dry spells, increased drought risk increased water demand (agriculture, population) soil degradation and salinization Impacts on water resources management & key strategic sectors of regional economies Impacts on Water (and Food) Security Capacity to exacerbate tensions and conflict among social, ecological and economic actors an EU Priority Theme 4

3 Uncertainty in climate impact research and adaptation Emission Scenarios Climate Modeling & Scenarios Hydrological Models Management Tools No data Adaptation Strategies Cumulative Uncertainty 5 CLIMB in a nutshell CLimate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk funded under EU s FP7 Environment Theme (Theme: Climate, Water & Security, ENV ) funding period 48 months (01/ /2013) EC contribution: 3.15 Million 19 beneficiaries 9 countries: EU Austria, France, Germany, Italy SICA Egypt, Palest. Adm. Areas, Tunisia, Turkey Other Canada

4 CLIMB mission & objectives CLIMB is aiming to employ and integrate in a conceptual framework: advanced geophysical field monitoring techniques remote sensing analyses and retrievals climate models auditing and downscaling integrated hydrologic modeling socioeconomic factor assessment to analyse ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes to link the changes in hydrological quantities to associated risks and threats to security to quantify (reduce?) uncertainties in climate change impact analysis CLIMB case studies ) Thau 280 km² - Coastal Lagoon - France 2) Rio Mannu 473 km² - Sardinia, Italy 3) Chiba km² - Cap Bon Tunisia 4) Noce km² Southern Alps Italy 5) Izmit Bay 673 km² - Kocaeli - Turkey 6) Nile Delta 1000 km² - Nile - Egypt 7) Gaza Aquifer 365 km² - Gaza Palest.-admin. areas Challenges (some key words): changes in water availability, runoff regimes, runoff extremes and water quality high agricultural productivity, irrigation, heavy nutrient loads, pollution, salt water intrusion in near-coastal aquifers, multi-use water systems (consumption rivalries) 8

5 CLIMB conceptual framework Study Site Characterization GCM / RCM 1 GCM / RCM 2 GCM / RCM n Conventional data (soil, DEM, vegetation, water availability and consumption etc.) Climate Model Audit & Uncertainty Assessment Socioeconomic Factor Assessment Remote Sensing Parameter retrieval & Data assimilation Geophysical Data Acquisition Hydrological Model 1 Hydrological Model 2 Hydrological Model n Hydrological Models Audit & Uncertainty Assessment Risk Model Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Adapted Management Dissemination & Stakeholder Interaction (Questionairs, Web-GIS Server, Website) 9 CLIMB 2 case studies (2) Rio Mannu di San Sperate, Sardinia, Italy (3) Chiba, Cap Bon, Tunisia

6 CLIMB Rio Mannu, Sardinia Stakeholder Meetings & Field Campaigns, AGRIS 11 CLIMB field campaigns (2010/2011) Experimental Farm Azienda S. Michele 300 soil samples from 3 depths lab analysis for bulk density, PSDI, soil organic carbon content & ph values Electric resistivity tomography Gamma ray spectrometry & GPR 12

7 CLIMB field campaigns (2010/2011) Hydrogeophysical measurements for the regionalisation of soil hydraulic properties GPR and Gamma ray (Field campaign Sardinia, 10/2010) 13 CLIMB field campaigns (2010/2011) CLIMB Soil Map for the Rio di Costara sub catchment (ca. 15 km²)

8 CLIMB field campaigns (2010/2011) FAO vs. CLIMB Soil Map (based on 300 soil samples) for the Rio di Costara sub catchment CLIMB Rio Mannu, Sardinia Spatiotemporal evapotranspiration pattern using FAO Soil Map

9 CLIMB Rio Mannu, Sardinia Spatiotemporal evapotranspiration pattern using CLIMB Soil Map CLIMB Rio Mannu, Sardinia Spatiotemporal soil moisture pattern using FAO Soil Map

10 CLIMB Rio Mannu, Sardinia Spatiotemporal soil moisture pattern using CLIMB Soil Map CLIMB Chiba, Tunisia Stakeholder Meeting & Field Campaign, CERTE 20

11 CLIMB Chiba, Tunisia (June 2010) Stakeholder Meeting & Field Campaign Stakeholder meeting to present the project and discuss the major needs and expectations: - intensive agriculture (+trend) - irrigation and overexploitation of water resources - sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers - deteriorating water quality Field campaign: - Geophysical Data Acquisition (ERT, GPR, etc.) - Remote Sensing Ground Truth (soil moisture, roughness, land use etc.) CLIMB Chiba, Tunisia (June 2010) integrating geophysical data acquisition and remote sensing to: - parameterize hydrological models - interface hydrological surface and subsurface process descriptions - adapt and couple hydrological and groundwater models for climate change impact studies

12 CLIMB uncertainty analysis Chiba, Tunisia CLIMB uncertainty analysis Can tomatoes be grown in Chiba basin under climate change conditions? Evaluation of model outputs Probability of not reaching critical soil water contents increased Probability of additional irrigation demands increased Climate uncertainty study Parameter uncertainty study

13 25 The CLIWASEC cluster WASSERMed FP7-Topic: ENV Funding period: 01/ /2012 Co-ordinator: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC, Italy) Partners: 12 CMCC (IT), UNEXE (UK), CIHEAM- IAMB (Int.), CLU (IT), NTUA (GR), UPM (ES), NCARE (JO), PIK (DE), IRD (FR), ECRI-NWRC (EG), INAT (TN), CLIMB FP7-Topic: ENV Funding period: 01/ /2013 Co-ordinator: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU, Germany) Partners: 19 LMU (DE), AGRIS (IT), CAU (DE), CEMAGREF (FR), CERTE (TN), CINFAI (IT), CRS4 (IT), DLR (DE), FZJ (DE), GIT (TR), INRS (CA), Joanneum (AT), UA (FR), IUG (PS), UNIPD (IT), UNITN (IT), UZ (EG), VISTA (DE), BayFOR (DE) CLICO Critical mass of 45 Partners FP7-Topic: SSH Funding period: 01/ /2012 Co-ordinator: Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB-ICTA, Spain) Partners: 14 UAB-ICTA (ES), UEA (UK), ECOLOGIC (DE), CSCW-PRIO (NO), HUJ (IL), SCU (EG), ETHZ (CH), CyI (CY), UOS (UK), UNU-EHS (DE), PHG (PS), CREAF (ES), IPSO (BE), AAU (ET) 26

14 Objectives of the CLUSTER Scientific Synergy Study Sites are complementary in scope, region and scale share information and data compare and integrate model results: - GCM/RCM -hydrological -socio-economic discuss progress and problems on the WP level & during GAs joint publications 27 Objectives of the CLUSTER Policy Outreach Study Sites are complementary in scope, region and scale Identify common stakeholder groups Develop common elements/media for dissemination Produce common science-policy briefs on thematic priorities 28

15 Implementing the CLUSTER Challenges (for any comparable cooperation) Defining and Implementing the Interfaces - integrate methods from natural and social sciences - propose common solutions for water resource management under CCC - finding complementary case studies Bridging Scales - work focuses on various spatio-temporal scales (micro-, meso-, macro-) - transfer/regionalize findings from representative case studies to other regions Reducing Uncertainties - identify the sources and quantify the magnitude of uncertainty - fusing methods and results to mitigate the levels of uncertainty 29 Challenge and Potential The Nile Delta case study WASSERMed 30

16 Challenge and Potential The Nile Delta case study 31 Conclusion for the CLIWASEC cluster Findings & Recommendations towards Cooperation Interfacing projects - great in theory has some advantages to Large Scale Integrative Projects - not easy in practice (budgetary and time means must be ensured) - requires a clear concept from the very beginning (practically the Call) Exchange of Data & Information - must be greatly improved between projects to avoid redundancy - data clearinghouse (!!) Simplifying Cooperation - more flexible funding mechanisms (e.g. COST, IRSES) - centralized integral workshops and seminars - downsize project administration 32

17 33 Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. Ralf Ludwig CLIMB Co-ordinator Department of Geography LMU Munich, Germany 34

18 CLIMB partners LMU Muenchen, Germany AGRIS Sardegna - Agenzia per la Ricerca de la Agricoltura, Italy Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel, Germany Centre national du Machinisme Agricole, du Genie Rural, des Eaux et des Forets, France Centre de Recherche et des Technologies des Eaux, Tunisia Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Fisica delle Atmosfere e delle Idrosfere, Italy Centro di Ricerca, Sviluppo e Studi Superiori in Sardegna, Italy Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.v., Germany Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Germany Gebze Yuksek Teknoloji Enstitusu, Turkey Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Canada Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbh, Austria Islamic University of Gaza, Palestinianadministered areas Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy Università degli Studi di Trento, Italy Zagazig University, Egypt VISTA Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH, Germany Bayerische Forschungsallianz gemeinnuetzige GmbH, Germany Université Francois Rabelais du Tours, France 35