Resilience and Society: energy infrastructure conference 26 th April Sarah Mander

Transcription

1 Resilient electricity networks for Great Britain Resilience and Society: energy infrastructure conference 26 th April 2012 Sarah Mander

2 The future electricity grid Climate change will have a huge impact on the electricity grid Electricity networks will need to adapt» Severity of extreme weather events» Component performance» Changing energy demand Mitigation implies a changing gsupply mix» Offshore renewables» Nuclear» Gas/coal CCS» Micro generation Mitigation tgato scenarios suggest a shift tof demand for heat and transport to the electricity network

3 RESNET Resilient electricity networks for Great Britain RESNET will develop and demonstrate a comprehensive systems level approach to analysing, at the GB scale, the resilience of the existing and proposed electricity networks It will develop, test and refine tools for evaluating adaptation measures designed to enhance the resilience of the network including societal and technical adaptation

4 Climate and hazards (WP1) Future climate scenarios will be generated using the UKCP09 model Emphasis is on the extremes and spatial properties of climate change that can disrupt a large area of the country Temperature, rainfall (including flooding) and wind speed will be modelled Timescales of 2020, 2050, 2080

5 Energy supply and demand scenarios (WP2) The WP will generate spatially and temporally explicit scenarios of future electricity demand and supply, withand without different scales of decentralisation Energy system electricity and non electricity Energy use across all sectors (inc aviation and shipping) Timeframes: 2020, (2030?), 2050, 2080

6 Framing the scenarios S i b il d li i li hi h Scenarios built up around qualitative storylines, which will give

7 Framing the scenarios Different levels l of energy demandd

8 Framing the scenarios Different levels l of carbon reductions

9 Developing the scenarios Participatory Scenario Process ASK Energy system Carbon emissions Future energy demand & supply Sector: Domestic, Industry, transport etc. Purpose: Heat, light, cooling, movement etc Load profiles Winter day Summer day WP1: Temp changes over time WP1: Temp changes over time, 2020, 2030, 50, 80

10 Domestic sector energy demand Household Numbers Household Final Energy Demand

11 Domestic sector energy demand Time Household Numbe rs Heat demandd per household Number of homes on different heating systems Time

12 Domestic sector energy demand Other electric: Lighting Computers & consumer electronics Wet appliances Cold appliances Catering Changes in numbers and efficiencies (Using Defra 2010)

13 Scenario development: Domestic Sector Result: Total electricity, and non electricity demand Changes in electricity of different components for different house types ASK Load profiles

14 Scenario development Household s s diurnal electricity demand profile Load profiles, an average house with: No electric heating Storage heating Direct electric heating Heat pumps Based on BRE / Exelon data (Not for heat pumps) p

15 Scenario development household changes to 2020

16 Scenario development domestic sector diurnal electricity demand profile

17 Network performance analysis (WP3) Operational resilience changed performance under future climaticconditions conditions Cables» Usually directly buried» Heat generated must escape through thermal resistance of cable itself and that of soil» Rti Rating largely l dependent d on soil temperature t and moisture it content Overhead lines» Conductors are limited in temperature by melting point of grease, non elastic expansion and ground clearance» Rating primarily a function of wind speed and to a lesser extent ambient temperature» Significant impact of extreme weather on fragility» Corrosion

18 Network performance analysis (WP3) Infrastructure resilience failure of components under extremeweather events Characterising future and emerging technologies developing performance and fragility curves for future andemerging technologies

19 Analysis of resilience & the effectiveness of Adaptation (WP4) How will future demand and changes to mean climate affect the day by day resilience of the current and potential future energy systems (i.e. operational resilience)? How disruptive willextreme weather events be to How disruptive will extreme weather events be to the resilience of the energy transmission and distribution networks (i.e. infrastructure network resilience)?

20 Social and broader implications As assessment of adaptation beyond technical feasibility and technological fixes Societalbarriers to adaptation» Social and political pressures» Perceptions of risks and uncertainties» Behavioural changes What should they be? How would they make us more or less resilient?

21 Understanding social resilience Societies can become resilient by:» adopting/accepting new technologies» changing their behaviours/what they do Theoreticalapproach approach based onsocialpractice theory Social practices elements are technologies, their meanings and associated know how that are intertwined to shape our everyday life Examples of practices include cooking, travelling, washing, etc. What changes in everyday social practices (at the organizational and household levels) are needed to realise resilience and adapt to climate change?

22 Thank you