Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA)

Transcription

1 Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA) Overview Current progress and initial findings Next steps Planning Advisory Committee Jordan Bakke April 18, 18 Updated June 18, 18

2 Renewable Integration Impact Assessment (RIIA) seeks to find inflection points of renewable integration complexity Focus Areas: Resource Adequacy Energy Adequacy Operating Reliability Renewable Integration Complexity RIIA begins by modeling the current system. Inflection points are milestones where complexity significantly increases. Illustrative example Renewable Energy Penetration (steps of 10%) 2

3 By examining increasing penetrations of renewables, the Resource Adequacy Focus Area produced several key takeaways 1. Risk of losing load compresses into a small number of hours and shifts to later in the day 2. As a result of the shift in risk of losing load, the available energy from wind and solar during high risk hours decreases 3. Diversity of technologies and geography improves the ability of renewables to meet load 3

4 Wind, utility-scale PV and distributed PV were forecasted to assess the impact on the MISO system Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) Wind Utility PV Distributed PV Energy Mix: 7.5% 17.5% 75% 0 Base 10% % 30% % 50% % 70% 80% 90% 100% Renewable Generation Availability (% of Load Energy) 4 For more information, see the RIIA Assumptions Document.

5 Power Output* (GW) As renewable penetration increases, the risk of losing load shifts and compresses to a smaller number of hours Wind Solar Renewable penetration Solar ramps down sharply at end of the day. Probability of losing load is targeted at one day in ten years over all penetration levels. While aggregate risk remains constant, the risk in particular hours increases. *Profile shapes represent hourly averages across all days of the 6 study years. Net load diurnal profile* (GW) Base 10% % 30% % 50% % 70% 80% 90% 100% Time (EST) Risk of losing load compresses to a smaller number of hours. Net peak load shifts from 3 pm to 6 pm. RISK 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Loss of load probability

6 Changes to net load shapes are seasonal, however the risk of losing load still occurs during the summer at higher penetration levels Renewable Gen* (GW) Winter Renewable Gen* (GW) Summer Net Load* (GW) Net Load* (GW) Hour (EST) Hour (EST) 6 *Profile shapes represent seasonal hourly averages across the 6 study years.

7 As a result of the shift in risk of losing load, the available energy from wind and solar during high risk hours decreases 70% As penetration levels increase and the net peak load timing shifts: ELCC* for wind decreases slightly ELCC for solar sees a steeper drop-off These values are reflective of ELCC calculated separately for wind and solar to isolate the impacts of each technology. ELCC (%) % 50% % 30% % 10% 0% Solar Only Wind Only Installed Capacity by Technology (GW) *Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) is a measure of the additional load that the system can supply with the particular generator of interest, with no net change in reliability. 7

8 Diversity of technologies improves the ability of renewable resources to mitigate the risk of losing load % 55% Improvement in Wind due to Solar Wind w/ Solar Improvement in Solar due to Wind Solar w/ Wind % 50% Wind only Solar only 50% 45% All Renewables ELCC (%) % 35% 30% 25% % 15% % 30% % ELCC Improvement (%) 10% 10% 5% 0% Base 10% % 30% % 50% % 70% 80% 90% 100% Renewable Generation Availability (% of Load Energy) 0% 8

9 Geographic diversity improves the ability of renewable resources to mitigate the risk of losing load Sites 10% sites scaled to 100% level* 50% sites scaled to 100% level* ELCC 11.1% 13.4% 100% sites 14.0% Wind PV 10% Sites 50% Incremental Sites 100% Incremental Sites *Generation at sites selected for 10% and 50% penetration levels was scaled to match the generation needed for the 100% penetration level. 9

10 Technologies and behavior that change load shape could relocate at-risk hours 10% Renewable Penetration 50% Renewable Penetration Net Load Per Unit Solar Generation Per Unit Wind Generation 75% Wind; 25% Solar 100% 90% 80% Net Load Per Unit Solar Generation Per Unit Wind Generation 75% Wind; 25% Solar Net peak load 100% 90% 80% Net Load* (GW) % % 50% % 30% Per Unit Availability(%) Net Load* (GW) % % 50% % 30% Per Unit Availability (%) Hour (EST) % 10% 0% Hour (EST) % 10% 0% 10 *Profile shapes represent the net peak load day averaged across all 6 study years.

11 By examining increasing penetrations of renewables, the Resource Adequacy Focus Area produced several key takeaways 1. Risk of losing load compresses into a small number of hours and shifts to later in the day 2. As a result of the shift in risk of losing load, the available energy from wind and solar during high risk hours decreases 3. Diversity of technologies and geography improves the ability of renewables to meet load 11

12 While Phase 1 of the Resource Adequacy Focus Area is wrapping up, work in other Focus Areas continues Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Resource Adequacy % LOLE ELCC Sensitivities Resource mix Siting Energy Adequacy Operating Reliability 10-30% Ramp Congestion Reserves 10-30% Thermal, voltage Frequency response -50% Ramp Congestion Reserves -50% Thermal, voltage Frequency response Options Proceed to -100% Run sensitivities on 10-50% Options Proceed to -100% Run sensitivities on 10-50% Sensitivities studied as part of Phases 2 and 3 will be partly driven by stakeholder feedback. Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q

13 Continued RIIA Efforts and Activities Assumptions, Methods & Results Workshop June 5, EST in Eagan, MN Please register on the MISO website Please visit the RIIA website for materials: Home > Planning > Transmission Planning Studies and Reports > Renewable Integration Impact Assessment 13

14 Jordan Bakke