Fondazione ISTUD Energia, Italia Nuovi competitors e fonti alternative

Transcription

1 Fondazione ISTUD Energia, Italia Nuovi competitors e fonti alternative Dr. Piero Manzoni CEO, Atel Energia S.p.A.

2 Well Balanced Energy Supply Parameters in Worldwide Power Generation Growing world population Economic growth Increase per capita energy consumption Development of energy prices Structural change in industry Increasing power demand Reliability of Supply Social Welfare Global Trends in Worldwide Power Generation Deregulation / Liberalization Globalization Privatization New requirements on power generation Commercial Profitability Environmental Protection I Page 2 I

3 Competition: Well Balanced Energy Supply have a regionally different focus. Asia: Development of primary energy supply Affordable energy Environmental issues are not priority Trends 2000: Liberalization of electricity markets Low energy prices Generally conflict-free world politics Anthropogenic environmental changes in discussion Reliabiltiy of Supply NME USA Asia EU 2006 D 2000 USA: Security of supply through energy mix Promotion of clean coal technologies Promotion of renewables Trends 2006: Adapting processes to market liberalization High energy prices Conflict-filled world politics Acknowlegdement of anthropogenic environmental changes EU: Emissions trading Promotion of renewables Balanced energy mix Phasing out of nuclear energy Profitability Environment I Page 3 I

4 Italy: Installed capacity and investments Italy is passing from a generation system inadequacy to an oversupply situation. Terna projection of peak demand is skewed towards high increases MW + 15 MW Capacity in GW Installed gross capacity Average available capacity at peak Peak demand /12 elaboration and estimation on Terna public data I Page 4 I

5 Italy: Generation mix The actual growth s trend of gas driven generation continues in the medium term, thus increasing the dependence on gas 100% 6% 3% 6% 5% 4% 7% 75% 17% 14% 11% 15% 3% 27% 50% 50% 55% Solid Gas 25% 35% Oil Hydro 12% 14% 16% Other renewable Other (derived gas, etc.) elaboration on MSE, Terna, GSE and ENEA data /12 I Page 5 I

6 Power Generation Costs by Types of Power Plants Type of Power Plant Full Load Hours (h/a) Invest Costs (EUR/kW) Power Generation Costs (EURct/kWh) *) Operation-/ Total Costs Nuclear (1600 MW, 36%) ,7 4,0 Hard Coal (700 MW, 45%) ,3 4,6 Gas fired CCPP (800 MW, 58%) ,1 6,5 Hydro (700 MW) < 0,1 5,6 Wind (> 1 MW) ,05 0,5 7,8 Photovoltaics (1 MW) ,4 :::: *) LCC: Life Cycle costs CO2 not considered Oil price at 90 USD I Page 6 I

7 Possible tomorrow s power mix Privileged feed-in demands load leveling Wind Concentrated Solar Power Intermediate-load/peak-load CCPP: High efficiency Low emissions Steep ramp up Low-carbon base-load Coal PP with high efficiency IGCC (based on coal) with precombustion capture Post-combustion capture for retrofit Nuclear PP Hydro PP (running water) Comply with CO 2 abatement policies CO 2 cap & trade, CO 2 pricing Mandatory Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) R&D funding Renewables quota National nuclear program Ensure reliable power supply High efficiency and limited resource usage Reduced dependence on fuel imports Stable grid operation Economic viability CO 2 abatement while maintaining reliability of supply would be feasible. I Page 7 I

8 Italy Renewable Generation: incentive and regulation Italy has to reach stringent target on renewable production, to do this there is a strong incentive policy New Green Certificates scheme Main aim: to differentiate incentive per technology 15 years horizon It will start in 2009 Conto Energia Main aim: to support photovoltaic development Started in 2005, feed in tariff (20 years horizon) The scheme is differentiated per size of plant and level of integration with buildings (last modification in 2007) Green Certificates Main aim: to support only renewable sources (Biomass, Hydro, Wind and Bio Waste) From 2002 power producers are obliged to cover the 2% of their thermoelectric production with renewable sources (form 2004 to 2006 the obligation increased each year of 0.35%) Operators can produce green certificates (12 years) with respect to their green production CIP6 Main aim: to support private investments in the power sector Started in 1992, feed in tariff for renewable and assimilated sources Ended in 1999 but still in operation due to authorized plants before this data have not started operation Pöyry elaboration and estimation on public sources data I Page 8 I

9 Renewable generation key facts The investment wave in renewables is bound to continue and it is expected not to be concentrated on wind technology only Evolution Starting operation of the Green Certificates Scheme All thermoelectric operators (no cogenerative) with more than 100 GWh production have to cover 2% of their generation with renewable sources Renewable production by IAFR sources is still marginal with respect to GSE CIP6 plants No market platform Green certificates can be tradable on the GME platform IAFR generation overtakes GSE CIP 6 production From 2004 to 2006 the obligation for thermoelectric generation increased 0.35% per year (starting point 2%) Strong growth of new independent operators Incentive based on GSE CV CIP6 reference price Large development of wind production (already installed or planned) New green certificate mechanism no more linked to CIP 6 incentive and differentiated by technology Ambitious target for electricity generation by renewable sources up to 2020 (25% with respect to national electricity net demand) Green certificate oversupply in the yearly next years even though current planned capacity is not sufficient to meet targets More diversified portfolio of renewables is expected I Page 9 I

10 Power market key facts The path toward a more liquid market should accelerate, with the development of new market platform (physical and financial) on different time horizons and the increase competition in the retail market Evolution WHOLESALE MARKET Not structured market platform Free market composed by CIP6 revenues and import capacity Electricity contracts based on regulated indexation (Ct or PG) WHOLESALE MARKET Development and evolution of IPEX Limited participation by demand into the market No forward market Strong role of AU in terms of CIP6 and import purchases WHOLESALE MARKET Forward market, both physical and derivatives Development of an intra-day market Consolidation of carbon trading Evolution of cross-border trading RETAIL MARKET Free market for large industrial clients only Enel large presence even if not so dominant like in generation RETAIL MARKET Free market to all commercial entities Enel sold part of its distribution network corresponding to around 2 mln clients Switch costs decreasing and market opening to new players RETAIL MARKET Full free market (also residential consumers) Development of the competition in low consumption sector (professional and domestic) Market power consolidation of large players with over 1 mln clients I Page 10 I

11 European Market I Page 11 I

12 European Market I Page 12 I