SIMPLIFYING THE COMPLEX ENERGY AND EMISSIONS PLANNING IN COLWOOD, BC

Transcription

1 SIMPLIFYING THE COMPLEX ENERGY AND EMISSIONS PLANNING IN COLWOOD, BC

2 SUMMARY The City of Colwood had a vision to dramatically reduce community wide energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Local Government (Green Communities) Statutes Amendment Act (Bill 27) provided the impetus to assess what types of reductions could be achieved through a variety strategies and levels of performance in different sectors. The City hired the consulting firm Jordan Fisher and Associates to undertake a simple analysis that would put their targets in context and shed light on the key factors for success. This simple analysis was an essential early step to inform the development of a Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP). BACKGROUND When Colwood began their energy and emissions planning project they had the benefit of learning from the experiences of other nearby local governments that had undertaken (or were in the process of undertaking) their own initiatives. These included the Capital Regional District s Greenhouse Gas Emission and Energy Use Inventory 1 and Community Energy Plan 2, the District of Saanich s Climate Action Plan 3, and the neighboring City of Langford s Community Energy and Emissions Reduction Strategy 4. After becoming familiar with the work these and other communities had done the City developed a better sense of what approach would give Colwood the information suited to their needs. It was decided that a simple analysis informed by readily available data and the knowledge of City personnel and local consultants would be pursued. The goal was to find a good balance between giving the City enough information to guide sound decision making without getting bogged down by excessive technical analysis. This would allow the City to focus its limited resources on developing and implementing strategies for reducing energy use and GHGs. Jordan Fisher and Associates (in collaboration with Victoria Transport Policy Institute) designed a simple numerical model tailored to the City s needs pdf 2

3 THE TOOL: A SIMPLE NUMERICAL MODEL The model used on the project provides a simple method for assessing potential reductions in community wide energy use and GHG emissions. It allowed the project team to explore a myriad of combinations of different strategies and levels of performance in different sectors providing a simple picture of what it will take to achieve desired reductions. The model can be used with a top down or visionary approach to target setting (e.g. what will it take to achieve a 33% reduction in community wide GHG emissions by 2020?), a bottom up or pragmatic approach (i.e. if we take these particular steps, what type of reductions can we achieve?), or a combination of the two. Results are shown both as totals for the whole community (accounting for growth) as well as on a per capita basis, which is particularly useful for communities with high growth projections (such as Colwood). The scope of the model generally follows that of the provincial Community Energy and Emissions Inventory (CEEI), though it can incorporate other local considerations. It can be adapted to communities at any scale and expanded to include more detailed technical analysis and spatial modeling (using GIS) where appropriate. The modeling process starts with a preliminary analysis to create a baseline profile of the community s energy use and emissions and a simple growth projection. This projection shows what total energy use and emissions will be in the future if per capita figures remain as they are and the community grows at a given rate. The preliminary inputs include: TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE On road energy use (from CEEI) On road emissions (from CEEI) BUILDINGS Current energy usage (from CEEI and other local data such as heating oil usage) Current emissions (from CEEI and other local data such as heating oil usage) WASTE Solid waste emissions (from regional data using the waste commitment method) GROWTH RATE Informed by census data, the regional growth strategy, and general staff knowledge. 3

4 Once the baseline profile and simple growth projections have been created, internal and external stakeholders are engaged and the community s goals and priorities, as well as potential strategies, are identified. Next, a target analysis is performed by experimenting with variables that relate to both physical and behavioral changes. Examples from each sector are given below: TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE DRIVING LESS: Smart Growth Land Use and Infrastructure e.g. the portion of residents living in compact, mixed- use neighborhoods; quality of transit, cycling, and pedestrian infrastructure Trip Reduction and Mobility Management Marketing Programs e.g. prevalence of school transportation management programs, ride sharing Note: shifts in transportation mode split associated with the above are provided as secondary indicators The analysis accounts for the role each variable plays in reducing driving, based on research done by the Victoria Transport Policy Institute. E.g., it is assumed that (all else being equal) residents who live in compact, mixed-use neighborhoods will drive 20% less than those who don t. VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS SHIFTS TO CLEANER FUEL SOURCES BUILDINGS IMPROVEMENTS TO EXISTING BUILDINGS Significant retrofits (degree of improvement and retrofit rate based on age of building stock from census data and ecoenergy statistics) Minor retrofits and simple energy management NEW BUILDINGS BUILT FOR HIGHER PERFORMANCE Residential: Unit mix (i.e. detached, attached, <5 stories, >5 stories; informed by permit records) Unit size (informed by trends in local development and building practices) 4

5 Commercial and Residential: Energy intensity Emissions intensity of energy sources Note: industrial buildings were not included as data was not available SOLID WASTE Reductions in the volume of waste sent to the landfill Figure 1, below, outlines variables from each sector that are used to develop the sector specific and overall community targets for energy use and GHG emissions. Figure 1: Variables used in target setting Note: quantitative target analysis is supplemented by qualitative analysis where appropriate. For example, a comparison of the broader community benefits of mobility management strategies vs. vehicle fuel efficiency improvements was undertaken, providing additional context to planning priorities. 5

6 The target analysis is an iterative process and stakeholders are engaged throughout. This process leads to the creation of a scenario that includes primary and secondary targets associated with desired levels of performance. Strategies and key projects that will help achieve these levels of performance are outlined along with a monitoring protocol to help the City track it s performance over time. These are then refined and developed into a comprehensive CEEP. Figure 2, below, outlines this process. Figure 2: Energy and Emissions Modeling and Planning Process 6

7 PROCESS, ENGAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE The project was initiated by staff that saw the need for a plan that would help them understand the role that various strategies and levels of performance in each sector could play in reducing community wide energy use and GHG emissions. The City Engineer provided a report to Council, who approved the allocation of a portion of the City s gas tax funds to create a CEEP and directed staff to propose the specific terms of reference for the project. Staff worked with Jordan Fisher and Associates to develop the terms of reference, which were submitted to and approved by Council. The project later received support from BC Hydro, who provided both funding and significant guidance throughout the project. The project was overseen by a core team of City personnel that included representatives from the Planning, Engineering, and Building departments as well as a member of Council. The core team met with the consultant periodically and sought input from other City personnel as needed. They reported to the recently established Mayor s Task Force on Energy and Economic Development, which is made up of staff, elected officials, and a broad range of community leaders. These include representatives from the building and development sector, community non- profits, Royal Roads University, and the other members of the business community. The project team also sought to engage the broader community through workshops for key stakeholders and the general public. The modeling results gave City personnel a much clearer understanding of what energy use and emissions reduction targets could be realized if particular levels of performance in different sectors were achieved. This was a critical early step in developing the CEEP and the strategies that will help the City realize those levels of performance. The City used the results of this work to inform their Official Community Plan (OCP) amendment, passed by Council in May 2010, which met the requirements of Bill 27 and set a target of reducing community wide GHG emissions by 33% from 2007 levels by Figure 3, below, shows how different strategies can contribute to this reduction: 7

8 Figure 3: Targeted GHG Emission Reductions from Key Strategies The timeline for the project included a few months of discussions between the City and the consultant to define the project scope and receive Council direction. That was followed by about 4 months of engagement, analysis, and strategy development, leading to the first draft of the CEEP. The draft is currently undergoing review and revisions and, after a public open house, will be put before Council for adoption. POLICY FRAMEWORK While Bill 27 provided the impetus to undertake an OCP amendment that incorporates targets, policies, and actions with respect to reducing GHG emissions, the City was already working towards these goals. The City s 2008 award winning OCP already incorporated numerous policies geared towards developing complete, compact, and efficient communities and reducing GHG emissions. The existence of the gas tax fund enabled the City to dedicate the financial resources required to undertake the project and BC Hydro s Sustainable Communities program provided additional funds and support. While further policy and program development will follow the completion of the CEEP, the City has already initiated a number of programs to help achieve their goals. For example, a partnership with Royal Roads University has been established. This has led to a variety of collaborative efforts, which started with members of the project team making presentations to students so they could learn how these types of initiatives are undertaken and become involved in making positive change in the community. A group of students is now engaged directly with the City, one of whom 8

9 has become the volunteer community energy engagement coordinator. The group is already collaborating with the City and BC Hydro to implement simple home energy retrofits for low- income households. Another project has been undertaken by the local non- profit Climate Action West Shore (CAWS) in collaboration with the City and the West Shore Chamber of Commerce, which led to the creation of Colwood Community Place, a local living network intended to help you discover ways you can go green, go local, grow local veggies and our local economy while building a thriving city 5 CHALLENGES AND BREAKTHROUGHS The intention behind the modeling efforts employed was to simplify the complexities of community energy use and emissions to inform decision- making. Given the large number of potential considerations in community energy and emissions planning it was a challenge to create a model of the community that captured the major drivers while still being simple enough to be useful. By simultaneously engaging people with a range of expertise, collaboratively distilling the most important factors, and identifying the best available data to represent them, the team was able to meet this challenge. The analysis that was undertaken struck a good balance, giving City personnel the key information they needed without leading to paralysis by analysis. The other major challenge inside the local government was (and is) the fact that staff have an abundance of other high priority work on their plates. Given that much of this work relates to immediate issues it can be challenging to find the time to address long term planning issues and influence broader community change. The City is continually working to address this challenge, in part by leveraging relationships with numerous community organizations like Royal Roads University, Climate Action West Shore, and the Chamber of Commerce. This has helped the City of Colwood accomplish much more than they could have on their own and fosters a more collaborative spirit in the community. The analysis that was undertaken struck a good balance, giving City personnel the key information they needed without leading to paralysis by analysis

10 RESULTS The results of the project s modeling efforts gave Colwood personnel a much better understanding of what will be required to achieve significant reductions in community wide energy use and GHG emissions. In addition to showing what overall reductions could be achieved it also showed the corresponding per capita reductions, which are often easier to understand. The analysis highlighted the role that key factors in each sector could play and identified additional indicators to help monitor progress. For example, reducing the amount of driving in the community (an important component of the Transportation and Land Use sector) is influenced by variables like the portion of residents living in compact, mixed- use neighborhoods. These and other variables combine to give us the potential reductions and additional indicators (such as transportation mode split) are developed into a monitoring protocol to help the City track its performance over time. Similarly, in the Building Sector, key factors like efficiency improvements in new buildings are influenced by variables such as the size of units, the unit mix, and energy intensity. While the model itself is quantitative in nature, qualitative assessments of key strategies were included in the project where appropriate. For example, while the model showed that improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency would achieve the largest reductions in energy use and GHG emissions, a qualitative assessment highlighted the importance of mobility management (e.g. through better community design, active transportation and transit infrastructure) in meeting broader community goals. Another useful component of the project was the creation of a CEEP Concept Map (Appendix 1), which visually illustrates the main community energy and GHG considerations. The modeling results provided the basis for the development of policies and strategies that support more sustainable practices in land use, transportation, buildings, and waste management. They also reinforce the importance of existing policies aimed at improving community sustainability, such as those contained in Colwood s OCP. The model was tailored to the needs of the City of Colwood but can easily be adapted or expanded to address the priorities of other communities. By starting the analytical process by identifying the information that will be most useful to local government personnel, and building the model around that, local governments can ensure that their efforts give them results that are easy to understand and inform better decision- making. 10

11 Appendix 1: City of Colwood, CEEP Concept Map 11