The LETS programme and low carbon future scenarios

Transcription

1 The LETS programme and low carbon future scenarios Lars J Nilsson, Lund University LETS Gods workshop, 26 april 2010

2 < 2 C means peak and reduce now Global -50% by 2050 rel Recent Science? Developed Countries to cut by 80-95% by 2050 rel Source: European Commission

3 LETS Governing transitions to low carbon energy and transport systems for 2050 Starting point: It is technically and economically possible to make the transition towards a low-carbon society. Now we must identify pathways to implementation. Aim: To identify, explore and suggest ways that Sweden can implement low-carbon energy and transport systems for 2050, in order to reach the ambitious climate policy objectives suggested by the 2 C target. Form: A multidisciplinary research program Expected results: To produce new knowledge, but also to synthesize and interpret existing knowledge for more informed choices by decision makers, planners and other stakeholders.

4 Organization Steering Group and Program Management Communication & Outcomes Advisory Group & Key Stakeholders WP0: Scenarios & Alternative Pathways for LETS 2050 WP1 Governance, Institutions & Policy WP2 Urban and Regional Planning and Infrastructure WP3 Markets, Industry and Policy for Bioenergy WP4 Citizen- Consumers and Voluntary Instruments WP5 Logistics and Goods transport WP0: Comparative Analysis & Synthesis Scenarios as method: a platform for interdisciplinary research and a tool for identifying governance challenges Scenarios as tools for communicating results Scenario method development to follow-through on the backcasting ambition

5 Energy future studies under new demands Forecasts and projections (early applications) Explorative scenarios (for strategic planning, Shell, etc) Normative scenarios, e.g., backcasting (study end-point and pathway is more useful for planning than predict and provide ) The climate challenge puts normative scenarios in a new context. There are fewer acceptable futures under a 2 C constraint. They cannot remain feasibility studies but should be acted on. Hence, what are the governance and policy challenges?

6 Proliferating low carbon futures Scenarios and visions from businesses, NGO:s, agencies, research groups, etc. are showing what combinations of supply and demand can look like but not how they can be reached considering political and institutional factors

7 Transitions are possible and happen: District heating of Swedish buildings Source: K.Ericsson, 2009

8 What does it take to take Robinson seriously? Robinsson J.B., 1982, Backcasting a proposed method of policy analysis, Energy Policy The final step of backcasting: an analysis of the social, environmental, economic, political, and technological implications of the scenarios that would itself be a major part of the study. Indeed as backcasting analysis matures, more and more attention could be expected to be devoted to fleshing out these implications of different energy futures But parts of this final step remain surprisingly undeveloped Backcasting has mainly produced technical feasibility studies based on engineeringeconomic knowledge about systems technical options Scenarios need to better account for political and institutional parameters that impede or facilitate transformations This would enhance the value of scenarios as learning machines or tools for strategizing and learning in participatory deliberative approaches

9 Future energy use in transport? Energy use in the Swedish transport sector 2050 Electr. Hydrogen Biofuels Fossil 2005 technical fix lifestyle technical fix is assuming continued growth in transport work, high energy efficiency and strong technology development lifestyle is assuming essentially no growth and less technology development (Source: B. Johansson, unpublished ongoing scenario work in the LETS programme)

10 Policy paths are contingent on different regime conditions Source: ADAM, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies,

11 ADAM: What will the world look like? 2050 Transformation policy paths High energy efficiency in new and existing buildings Extensive electrification of road transport with battery and plug-in electric vehicles or transition to hydrogen Decarbonisation of basic industries (e.g. iron and steel; pulp and paper) Prospects under various political regime conditions Coordinated mitigation Autonomous mitigation Adaptation Very good. All countries on the same path Very good. International technology development as well as coordinated infrastructure development Good. Probably works only under high and universal carbon price Very good. Possibly weaker EU support Good. Several regions will pursue same path, which facilitates such technology shift. Possibly also to hydrogen Perhaps possible under common EU policy that includes carbon border adjustment to avoid carbon leakage Good. Less sense of urgency perhaps but no real barriers to pursue this option Good if energy security and other concerns drive electrification in other regions as well. Shift to hydrogen difficult Not good. Regulation and support possible at national level as long as competitiveness is not jeopardised Overall sensitivity to regime conditions Not sensitive. The sector is under national control Relatively sensitive since car industry is global and technology development costs substantial, in particular for hydrogen Very sensitive, high risk of carbon leakage. Technology development and capital investment require global markets and commitment

12 CANES: How will institutions develop? 2050 Transformation policy paths High energy efficiency in new and existing buildings Extensive electrification of road transport with battery and plug-in electric vehicles or transition to hydrogen Decarbonisation of basic industries (e.g. iron and steel; pulp and paper) Dependence on institutional dynamics and conditions Regulatory Cognitions Norms Requires strong building codes and standards. Local conditions and planning powers are important Standardisation and cooperation between car makers and utilities is needed. Supporting policies at several levels are needed. Hydrogen more challenging. Strong carbon pricing and, or, regulation (e.g., under IPPC-directive) is prerequisite Self perception of the construction companies and building sector at large important. Is zero-energy a positive opportunity or a burden? Peak-oil, climate and perceptions of electricity as clean are influential can the car industry reinvent itself? Will the new cars be better, but different? Narrative on zerocarbon and sustainable basic industry is missing. Self perception small potentials for reductions due to capital intensity, etc. Probably possible to make zero-energy the norm but risk of backlash if lower comfort and sick buildings are not avoided. Does it gain public acceptance and becomes norm despite higher first cost? Can the link to liquid fuels be broken? Exemption of industry from taxes, etc., appears to be prevailing norm. Strong economic and lobby power to avoid any burden. Sensitivity to institutional dynamics Path depends on institutional change but not very uncertain or sensitive to flucts. Germany indicates that transformation is possible Path appears to depend more on the success of tech. dev. than on institutional dynamics, although some changes in what we mean by car may be needed. Path depends on major changes in the current institutional dynamics that do not support a transformation

13 Conclusions Scenarios have many different uses In normative scenarios, the governance and policy implications of transformations are poorly developed One approach has been suggested and illustrated here it can be applied to other scenarios and use other analytical lenses It can go much deeper into political-institutional conditions for specific transformations (or techno-economic) For policy recommendations, a participatory and deliberative approach is needed

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