Improving the temporal profiles of emission input data for high resolution atmospheric transport modelling a case study for the UK

Transcription

1 Improving the temporal profiles of emission input data for high resolution atmospheric transport modelling a case study for the UK Stefan Reis, Centre for Ecoology & Hydrology Myriam Lang, Centre for Ecoology & Hydrology and University of Stuttgart Massimo Vieno, University of Edinburgh, Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Science, School of Geosciences

2 Overview EMEP4UK atmospheric model application for the UK Emission data current state of play Activity data (energy sector & road transport) Approach to develop improved temporal profiles First evaluation of results Conclusions & Outlook 1

3 The EMEP4UK model domain 50 km 5 km 2

4 Spatial resolution Comparison of model resolutions km resolution EMEP Unified 5 5 km resolution EMEP4UK 3

5 Emissions in the UK Annual anthropogenic emissions in estimated emissions [ktonnes] NOx VOC SOx NH3 PM10 Source: UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 4

6 Nitrogen Oxides ktonnes (2006) Road transport 32.3 Combustion in energy production 29.2 Other mobil sources and machinery 15.2 Production Processes 15.0 Commercial, institutional, residential and combustion plants 7.8 Extraction/Distribution of fossil fuels 0.2 Combustion in industry 0.2 Waste treatment and disposal 0.1 Agricultural, forests and landuse change 0.0 Solvent use 0.0 Source: NAEI* * National Atmospheric Emission Inventory estimated emissions [%] Source: Defra 5

7 NMVOC ktonnes (2006) Solvent use 44.2 Extraction/Distribution of fossil fuels 19.3 Combustion in industry 12.8 Road transport 11.2 Commercial, institutional, residential and combustion plants 4.6 Production Processes 2.8 Other mobil sources and machinery 2.5 Waste treatment and disposal 2.0 Combustion in energy production 0.6 Agricultural, forests and landuse change 0.0 Source: NAEI estimated emissions [%] Source: Defra 6

8 Sulphur Dioxide ktonnes (2006) Combustion in energy production 65.2 Production Processes 15.2 Other mobil sources and machinery 9.2 Combustion in industry Commercial, institutional, residential and combustion plants Extraction/Distribution of fossil fuels Road transport 0.4 Waste treatment and disposal 0.2 Solvent use 0.0 Agricultural, forests and landuse change 0.0 Source: NAEI estimated emissions [%] Source: Defra 7

9 Ammonia ktonnes (2006) Agricultural, forests and landuse change 91.5 Waste treatment and disposal 2.8 Road transport 2.7 Combustion in industry Commercial, institutional, residential and combustion plants Solvent use 0.4 Combustion in energy production 0.2 Production Processes 0.2 Extraction/Distribution of fossil fuels 0.0 Other mobil sources and machinery 0.0 Source: NAEI estimated emissions [%] Source: Defra 8

10 Particulate Matter (PM10) ktonnes (2006) Commercial, institutional, residential and combustion plants 22.7 Road transport 19.5 Combustion in industry 13.3 Other mobil sources and machinery 10.4 Production Processes 10.3 Agricultural, forests and landuse change 8.1 Combustion in energy production 8.1 Waste treatment and disposal 3.5 Solvent use 3.2 Extraction/Distribution of fossil fuels 0.9 Source: NAEI estimated emissions [%] Source: Defra 9

11 Observed concentrations Source: UK Air Quality Archive 10

12 Temporal distribution general thoughts Aiming to achieve the best available temporal resolution, with appropriate resources Activity consideration of the main emitters user behaviour production indices energy consumption traffic counts temperature working hours holidays/vacation perfect, real-time temporal allocation availability of temporal data feasible, cost-effective approach 11

13 Combustion in Energy Production Load designs of power plants Source: EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook 12

14 Combustion in Energy Production Activity data Source: Department for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform (BERR), Energy Statistics 13

15 Combustion in Energy Production Influence of load and ambient temperature Load design Consumption Temporal resolution Coal Base and middle Seasonal influenced yearly Gas Demand peaks Shortterm demand hourly Source: BERR, Energy Statistics 14

16 Road Transport Activity data (I) Average weekly profile Annual profile Source: UK Department of Transport (DETR) 15

17 Road Transport Activity data (II) traffic distribution hour of the day weekday saturday sunday traffic distribution hour of the day weekday saturdays sunday hour of the day weekday saturday sunday traffic distribution cars and taxis Source: DETR goods vehicles all motor vehicles

18 First results Annual differences 17

19 First results Modelled vs. observed (I): NO x 18

20 First results Modelled vs. observed (II): Ozone 19

21 First results Modelled vs. observed (III): differences 20

22 Conclusions & Outlook (I) First analyses of model results for the test cases show: Significant seasonal differences over the year, Differences between pollutants, Differences in the spatio-temporal profiles. Small improvements of R 2 for NO 2, no change for O 3. More detailed investigations have to be made regarding individual episodes and comparing modelled vs. observed concentrations across different stations. 21

23 Conclusions & Outlook (II) Next steps: Current results were obtained with weekly/monthly profiles; effects of hourly profiles (e.g. for road transport) need yet to be assessed Further validation of model results vs. observations, in particular regarding urban/rural/background station variability Description of current and future levels of air pollution, Assessment of how far air quality standards, limit values and objectives are being met 22

24 Acknowledements & Contact details This work has partly been conducted with funding from Defra and the Scottish Government (REERAD) under the contracts Scientific Support for Policy (SSNIP) and Environmental Determinants of Public Health in Scotland (EDPHiS). Contact: Stefan Reis, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology 23