Community Information Session

Transcription

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2 Community Information Session Water resource outlook for the Campaspe system 2016/17 #

3 Agenda 1. Introduction why we re here 2. The Campaspe system 3. Groundwater resources 4. What has changed since the millennium drought 5. Current conditions and climate outlook 6. July 2016 outlook 7. What this means for customers 8. The measures GMW is taking 9. Next steps

4 Introduction Why we are here: Provide an update of current resources and outlooks Describe the challenges if conditions remain dry Give you information to help with your planning

5 The Campaspe System

6 The Campaspe System Regulated surface water Unregulated systems Groundwater

7 Regulated Surface Water Seasonal determination policy Allocate to high-reliability entitlements first Build reserves for high-reliability entitlements next season Allocate to low-reliability entitlements Reserves for next season only after 100% high-reliability entitlements available Carryover rules Up to 100% of high- and low-reliability entitlements Spillable water accounts

8 Unregulated Streams Management Area No. Streams No. Suspensions Murray North East Broken 5 2 Goulburn 21 4 Campaspe Loddon Effective 28 June 2016

9 Groundwater Resources

10 Groundwater Resources Lower Campaspe Valley WSPA Groundwater Management Plan approved in October 2012 Extends from Lake Eppalock in the south to the Murray River in the north

11 Lower Campaspe Valley WSPA

12 Groundwater Resources 100 % Allocation for 2016/17 season

13 Key Messages Lower Campaspe Valley WSPA Outlook Groundwater levels have been falling in recent years, but they are generally within historical ranges Groundwater levels are now recovering, and will continue to recover throughout winter and spring. Recovery is influenced by a number of factors Buffer against dry seasons built into the Plan 100% allocation in all zones for 2016/17 announced

14 Key Messages Groundwater Trading and Carryover Licence entitlement capped Usage typically less than 60% of licence entitlement, but was higher in 2015/16 (80%) Permanent and temporary trade available (up to 5 years) Carryover up to 25% of licence entitlement

15 What has Changed since the Millennium Drought?

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18 What Rules Have Changed? Regulated surface water rules Carryover rules 30% to 50% to 100% and then spillable water Water share ownership Commonwealth purchases Establishment of the Victorian Environmental Water Holder Closure of the Campaspe Irrigation District

19 Current Conditions and Climate Outlook

20 2015/16 Inflows (Jul 2015 to Jun 2016) Storage System Inflow (GL) Average (GL) Average (%) Eildon Goulburn , % 96% Nillahcootie Broken % 94% Eppalock Campaspe % 97% Cairn Curran Loddon % 99% Tullaroop Loddon % >99% PoE (%) *POE Probability of Exceedance

21 June 2016 Storage System Inflow (GL) Average (GL) Average (%) Eildon Goulburn % 37% Nillahcootie Broken % 38% Eppalock Campaspe % 55% Cairn Curran Loddon % 77% Tullaroop Loddon % 92% PoE (%) *POE Probability of Exceedance

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24 Jul-Sep Rainfall Outlook (30 Jun)

25 Climate Influences El Niño is over La Niña is 50% possible Negative Indian Ocean Dipole likely to influence rain across SE Australia

26 July Outlook

27 Seasonal Determinations System HRWS LRWS Low Spill Risk Murray 1% 0% Not declared Broken 0% 0% - Goulburn 8% 0% 1 Jul 2016 Campaspe 0% 0% Not declared Loddon 0% 0% - Bullarook 0% 0% - Effective 1 July 2016

28 Gigalitres (GL) Campaspe Resource Diagram 60 Remaining Commitments Urban and Env ironment Remaining Allocated Volume (incl Carry ov er) 10.0 Trade Commitments 30 Storage and Riv er Losses Volume Below Minimum Operating Lev el Available Resources GMW Share of Forecast Inflow s Available Resources Remaining Commitments GMW Share of Lake Eppalock

29 Campaspe System Outlook Inflow Conditions 15 August October December February 2017 Wet 100% 100% 100% 100% Above Average 64% 100% 100% 100% Average 17% 100% 100% 100% Below Average 0% 55% 63% 66% Dry 0% 3% 5% 6% Very Dry 0% 0% 0% 0% Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

30 What This Information Means for Customers

31 The Risk in a Snapshot Still to secure all operating water for 2016/17 A risk exists that inflows won t be received Contingencies needed to secure operating water

32 The Good News The catchment is responding to rain Chances of continued rain are good Risks are decreasing with each passing day but more rain and water in storages is needed

33 What GMW and its Partner Agencies are Doing to Help

34 The Measures Monitoring inflows and storage position Saving water where possible: Lowering weir pools Scheduling deliveries to certain times to minimise losses. Working with Coliban Water Working with the North Central Catchment Management Authority and the Victorian Environmental Water Holder

35 Key Campaspe System Measures Reducing evaporation losses Campaspe weirs Borrow water from Inter-Valley Trade Account with Goulburn system Retains water in system

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37 Important Point Actions will prolong water availability only They do not provide seasonal determinations Seasonal determinations need rain and water in dams

38 The measures GMW is taking New hardship measures We have recently made changes to our fixed charges payment options for 2016/17. They give customers more time and greater flexibility to pay their accounts. Customers can now pay their fixed charges accounts in eight monthly instalments equal to 12.5 per cent of their account. Customers can pay in full by 16 September and receive a 4 per cent discount, double our previous early payment discount. We will work with customers to find a solution to best fit their needs.

39 Next Steps

40 Next steps Resource Manager information Seasonal determination assessments updated on 1 st and 15 th (or next business day) of each month Next announcement 15 July, including updated outlook Next update in this forum?

41 Next steps Further information Goulburn Murray Water or Northern Victorian Resource Manager website Seasonal determinations and outlooks. Your local Customer Service Coordinator

42 Next steps Feedback Feedback can be provided by ing

43 Questions?