Water Supply Outlook 2009 and Beyond What can be Done

Transcription

1 Water Supply Outlook 2009 and Beyond What can be Done January 27, 2009 Jerry Johns Deputy Director Department of Water Resources

2 Overview The State s s Water Supply systems This years conditions Threats to the Delta and the State s s water supply Near Term Delta Smelt Biological Opinion Long term with climate change Bay Delta Conservation Plan What can be done this year and near-term

3 California Water Systems 9

4 The Bay/Delta System many things to many people Ever changing

5 Statewide Conditions Precipitation 1/23/2009 Northern Sierra 66% Southern Sierra 75% Reservoir Storage % AverageA Statewide 65% Major Reservoirs 55%

6 Season so far October % November % December % January % Season: %

7 Sierra Snowpack Sensors % avg. Northern 8 48% Central 10 60% Southern 8 65% Statewide % Next Course Survey: Thursday, Jan. 29

8 2- year Precipitation % of Normal Statewide % Avg: 1-year 70% 2-year 72%

9 What s s in Store - La Nina again? May mean dry spring for NorCal La Nina = 3 Mo. Ave. is cool for 5 cons. Mo.

10 Current Water Allocations Current SWP Allocations 15% of contract amounts to water users south and west of the Delta Based on 90% exceedance for January January was drier than 99% exceedance CVP allocations being evaluated Reviewing allocations to prior right holders Review February 1 Snow Survey Will be difficult to hold current allocations More news next few weeks

11 Threats to Delta Uses Seismic issues Climate change Change in hydrologic conditions and runoff patterns Less snowmelt higher floods deeper droughts Sea Level rise Temperatures Especially increase in Delta Temperatures Subsidence Random levee failure Drinking water quality concerns Toxics Invasive Species clams, zooplankton, fish, microcystis Fishery concerns and water supply reliability

12 How Water Gets to the California Economy 1 Sac River 3 Sac River / West Delta Delta Cross Channel Mokelumne River Old & Middle Rivers 2 SWP Pumps CVP Pumps San Joaquin River

13 Estimated SWP Delivery Impacts (Reduction from pre-wanger regulation (D-1641)) 4.0 Delivery Capability (maf) maf (19%) 0.66maf (18%) 1.13maf (32%) D1641 Wanger (Worst Case) FWS BO (Intermediate) FWS BO (Worst Case) Average Condition

14 Estimated SWP Delivery Impacts (Reduction from pre-wanger regulation (D-1641)) Delivery Capability (maf) maf (29%) 0.48maf (29%) 0.82maf (50%) D1641 Wanger (Worst Case) FWS BO (Intermediate) FWS BO (Worst Case) Dry Condition

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16 The Bay/Delta System Biologically Complex Changing Invasive species - Prevent, adapt and create new habitat opportunities Toxics - Address aggressively at source Water Project - Location of operations Need a Holistic Approach Bay/Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP)

17 What s the Purpose of the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP)? Develops and implements a plan to conserve and manage at- risk fish species in the Delta. Within the processes of HCP and NCCP Protects and restores Aquatic, Riparian and associated Terrestrial Natural Communities Allows projects that protect and restore water supply to proceed within a stable regulatory framework FESA/CESA Compliance Long-term Incidental Take Permits for water project operations

18 Early Question What is the one conservation measure that can improve Delta fisheries in the future? Change in Delta Water Conveyance Systems Current System Concept Developed in 1920 s Designed with s s Technology and Science Location of facilities - not so much the operation Flow alteration in the Delta Fish Salvage facilities Separate the fish from the water early Open up more areas for native fish habitat and food productivity development

19 Typical Modern Fish Screen Configuration Sacramento River Water and fish Water and fish Fish screen GCID Canal Water only

20 Components of Dual Conveyance Seismic and Flood Durability Cost Estimates: Western: Eastern: $7.4 B $4.2 B Thru Delta $1.2 B - (Range): $9.8 B Totals: Western: IC Only $7.4 B Siphon/Barriers $8.6 B Siphon/Setback $17.2 B Eastern: IC Only $4.2 B Siphon/Barriers $5.4 B Siphon/Setback $14 B 20

21 Water Supply Reliability Isolated Conveyance Priority Option Total Delta Exports Exceedance (10,300 Banks) Annual Total Exports (TAF) ,000 CFS IC (up to 10,000 CFS through Delta) 10,000 CFS IC (up to 5,000 CFS through Delta) 15,000 CFS IC (minimal from Delta) Reference Case Reference Case w/omr Probability of Exceedance (%)

22 What can be done This year 2009 Water Bank Actions in the Delta Aggressive water conservation Integrated Regional Water Management Near Term Improved Delta Conveyance is critical as part of a Bay Delta Conservation Plan Additional Storage Recognize climate change and adapt All the tools in the tool box