Energy at IIASA Overview & Highlights

Transcription

1 Energy at IIASA Overview & Highlights Nebojsa Deputy Director General and Deputy CEO International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology

2 Energy, Climate and Sustainability Building on Past Successes #2

3 #3

4 GEA Presentation to UNSG 2014 #4

5 The Key Energy Challenges Energy Access Climate Change Energy Security Air Pollution Health Impacts 2014 #5

6 Two Faces of the Athropocene >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity 2014 #6

7 Internet Router Density (sample of 564,521 routers) Data: Mark Crovella, Boston University, 2007 >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity

8 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density >3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity 2014 #8

9 SO2, NOx and PM2.5 Concentrations 2005 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 GEA approach: Emissions inventories (GAINS) Present and planned legislation (GAINS-MESSAGE) WHO health guidelines Energy system changes and climate-pollution policies (MESSAGE) Atmospheric concentrations and dispersion (TM5/JRC) 2014 #9

10 Policies can contribute toward reaching WHO guidelines Stringent pollution/access/climate policies by 2030 (e) Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3 ~2.6 million lives saved each year GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, 2013) 2014 #10

11 Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation Nuclearenergy Microchip Steam engine Vacuum tube Otto engine Electric engine television Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass #11

12 Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #12

13 Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway EJ Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, #13

14 Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway Gm Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Fricko et al, #14

15 2030 Energy Goals Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/ #15

16 Source: DI Analysis, #16

17 Supply Technologies Cost Trends Source: Grubler et al, #17

18 Modeling of Uncertainty and Risk Source: Krey, Riahi, #18

19 The Evolution of Technological Complexity Agent-based Approach Tieju Ma, Arnulf Grubler, Nebojsa and W. Brian Arthur Random walk model of invention discovery and stochastic combination with other technologies into energy chains and systems Evolutionary selection environment - uncertain increasing returns - market share gains f (rel. advantage) - externalities (stochastic C-tax) Evolution of complexity is function of learning rate and innovation impatience Complexity lock-in requires gales of creative destruction 2014 #19

20 Global Energy Investments Annual Energy Investments Innovation RD&D [billion US$2005] Markets Formation [billion US$2005] Present Investments [billion US$2005] Future Investments [billion US$2005] Efficiency >> 8 ~ Renewables > 12 ~ Access < 1 < 1 ~ Total > 50 < Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, #20

21 Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) 1.2% Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, #21

22 Interactive Policy Tools (GEF) Energy Access to clean cooking and electricity Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: multiple objectives, their synergies and trade-offs IIASA-UNIDO-GEF: Cape Verde, 2012 UN General Assembly resolution 65/ #22

23 Policy Tools for Decision Making Minimum Fufillment Maximum Fufillment Climate Change Health / Air Pollution Energy Security Energy Access Ancilliary Risks Energy Affordability GEA Pathway Analysis 2014 #23

24 GEA-Database #24

25 THANK YOU