Acidification Models

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2 J. Kamari D. F. Brakke A. Jenkins S. A. Norton R. F. Wright (Eds.) Regional Acidification Models Geographic Extent and Time Development With 92 Figures Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong

3 Dr. JUHA KAMARI Water and Environment Research Institute P.O. Box 250 SF Helsinki, Finland Prof. DAVID F. BRAKKE Institute for Watershed Studies Western Washington University Bellingham, WA 98225, USA Dr. ALAN JENKINS Institute of Hydrology Wallingford Oxon OX10 8BB, United Kingdom Prof. STEPHEN A. NORTON Department of Geological Sciences University of Maine Orono, Maine 04469,~USA Dr. RICHARD F. WRIGHT Norwegian Institute for Water Research P. O. Box 69, Korsvoll. N-0808 Oslo 8, Norway ISBN -13 : e-isbn -13: DOl: / This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is' only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its version of June 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989 Softcoverreprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use Printed on acid-free paper

4 Foreword In order to provide meaningful information for evaluating environmental consequences of alternative control strategies of air pollutant emissions, scientists have recently initiated numerous studies aiming at collecting and making use of regional data. New kinds of mathematical models have been developed that no longer are calibrated just for individual stands or catchments but can be applied on a large regional scale. Such regional models and data were reviewed at a meeting" Models to describe the geographic extent and time evolution of acidification and air pollution damage", organized by the Finnjsh Research Project on Acidification (HAPRO), and held in Aulanko, Hiimeenlinna, Finland, July 5-8, This volume is based on the outcome of that meeting. The chapters of the volume are written by leading scientists in the field. The main objective of this volume is to discuss the potential of regional models to analyze the geographic extent of acidification as well as the environmental damage and the time evolution of:the responses of the environment. First, in Part I of the volume, sensitivity distributions of ecosystems, forest soils and surface waters are described. The focus of interest is therefore extended from the most sensitive ecosystems to sensitive and moderately sensitive parts of the environment. When formulating national and international targets, it is of crucial importance to know the whole distribution of critical loads within the area, and not only the level the most sensitive ecosystem can tolerate. In Part II, dynamic models are described and applied for quantifying the time patterns of regional acidification and air pollution damage. Soil alkalinity productioll has been shown to be a valuable criterion for aiming at sustainable ecological development and equilibrium conditions of soils and waters. Many systems are, however, in disequilibrium with air pollution load and are thus in a process of transition. The rates of these processes have practical significance when evaluating the efficiency of gradual emission reduction. Finally, in Part III of the volume, the uncertainty and reliability of the models is assessed. The outcome of different models is compared to available historical data. Calibration of different mo~el structures to the same data give indications on the differences in the long-term model behavior under the same loading patterns. In the final chapter of the volume, some weaknesses of the approaches, gaps in knowledge, needs for further model development, data requirements, as well as general conclusions and recommendations of the Aulanko meeting are presented. The present models C of acidification are generally able to reproduce the observed patterns of acidification. The models thus can and should be used. In connection with policy applications it is imperative that uncertainties are evaluated and expressed clearly. Uncertainty is an unavoidable characteristic of model applications. Therefore, decisions based on highly uncertain results cannot and should not be avoided. J uha Kiimari Helsinki, Finland

5 Contents I Sensitivity Distributions 1 1 The Relative Sensitivity of Ecosystems in Europe to the Indirect Effects of Acidic Depositions Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna and Michael J. Chadwick 2 Acid-Induced Aluminum Mobilization in Fiml.ish Mineral Soils John Derome Sensitivity Distributions of Finnish Lakes Martin Forsius 31 4 The Importance of Organic Acidity in Finnish Lakes Pirkko Kortelainen 39 5 Uncertainties in Using Empirical, Steady-State Models to Estimate Critical Loads of Strong Acids to Lakes David F. Brakke and Arne Henriksen 45 6 Sensitivity, Load and Time: Aspects of Determining a Target Load for Lake Regions Juha Kiimiiri 55 II Time Evolution of Regional Impacts 67 7 Effects of Air ImRurities on Forest Growth and Tree Mortality: Results Based on a Computer Model Risto Lauhanen, Seppo Kellomiiki and Taneli Kolstrom 69 8 Watershed Acidification - A Chromatographic Process Stephen A. Norton 89 9 Atmospheric Deposition of Sulfur, Nitrogen and Basic Cations onto European Forests: Observations and Model Calculations Wilfried Ivens, Albert Klein Tank, Pekka Kauppi and Joseph Alcamo The Long-Term Impact of Acid Deposition on the Aluminum Chemistry of an Acid Forest Soil Willem de Vries and Hans K ros 11 Modeling Time Patterns of Forest Soil Acidification for Various Deposition Scenanos Willem de Vries, Maximilian Posch and Juha Kiimiiri

6 12 Estimating Time Delays and Extent of Regional De-Acidification in Southern Norway in Response to Several Deposition Scenarios Bernard J. Cosby, George M. Hornberger and R.F. Wright Temporal Patterns of Ecological Change During the Acidification and Recovery of Streams Throughout Wales According to a Hydrochemical Model Steve J. Ormerod, Neil S. Weatherley and Paul G. Whitehead Regional Distributions of Lake Chemistry Predicted by Mechanistic and Empirical Lake Acidification Models Paula A. Labieniec, Mitchell J. Small and Bernard J; Cosby The Finnish Integrated Acidification- Model Matti Johansson, Ilkka Savolainen and Markus Tiihtinen A Knowledge-Based Approach to Regional Acidification Modelling: A Case Study of New Brunswick, Canada David C. L. Lam, D. A. Swayne, A. S. Fraser, J. Storey and 1. Wong 213 III Uncertainty in Model Applications Model of Ion Dynamics and Acidification of Soil: Application to Historical Soil Chemistry Data from Sweden Maria Holmberg, Pertti Hari and Ari Nissinen Application of Two Soil Acidification Models to Historical Soil Chemistry Data from Sweden Maximilian Posch, Ursula Falkengren-Grerup and Pekka Kauppi Modelling Surface Water Acidification Using One and Two Soil Layers and Simple Flow Routing Alan Jenkins and Bernard J. Cosby Broad Scale Effects of Sulfur Deposition: A Response Surface Analysis of a Complex Model Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Robert H. Gardner, Kenneth A. Rose and Antoinette L. Brenkert Estimating Uncertainty in Long-Term Reconstructions George M. Hornberger, Bernard J. Cosby and Richard F. Wright Models to Describe the Geographic Extent and Time Evolution of Acidification and Air Pollution Damage Alan Jenkins, Juha Kiimiiri, Stephen A. Norton, Paul Whitehead, Bernard J. Cosby and David F. Brakke 291 Index 299