The Outlook for Energy

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 Rob Gardner 33 rd Annual Marine / Offshore Industry Outlook Conference March 25, 21 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

2 Importance of Energy 2

3 Our Key Energy Challenges Reducing poverty and improving living standards Supporting economic growth Minimizing impacts on the environment Maintaining energy security Development of reliable and affordable energy plus ongoing efficiency gains are essential to meeting these challenges... 3

4 Challenge: Meeting Basic Needs Electricity Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels Available Available ~1.5 Billion People with no Electricity ~ 2.5 Billion People with no Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels 26 World Bank 4

5 Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand Trillion 25$ GDP 6 GDP Quadrillion BTUs 4 Demand OECD Trillion 25$ GDP 6 Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD

6 Efficiency: Reducing Demand Growth Energy per GDP MBTU / 25$ k GDP 15 Demand Quadrillion BTUs % 12% Constant 25 Level What demand would be without efficiency gains ~3 Quads 6-1.5% Average Growth / Yr %

7 Growing Global Demand By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings 7

8 Global Transportation Demand By Sector MBDOE 7 Personal vs. Commercial MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Commercia l Light Duty Vehicles Personal Non OECD OECD Personal Commercial 5 8

9 Personal Vehicle Fleet is Growing Vehicle Penetration Cars and Population (millions) Fleet by Car Type Million Cars US Advanced US 23 Europe OECD 25 Cars Population 1 75 Diesel Europe OECD 23 5 Gasoline China China

10 Improving Today s Vehicle % MPG Improvement Engine Light Weight Materials Aero - Dynamics Turbo Charging Transmission i Cylinder Deactivation Body & Accessories Camless Valves Improved Tires Continuously Variable Total Percent A/C Efficiency 6 Speed / 7 Speed 1

11 Light Duty Vehicle Technology % MPG Improvement Well to Wheels Gasoline Equiv. Electric Vehicle Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) Full-Hybrid & HCCI Conventional Technology Percent 11

12 Light Duty Vehicle Technology Plug-in Hybrid Assumptions Plug-in Hybrid vs. Conventional Vehicles $k 2 Battery cost, $/kwh 8 3 Battery replacements over the vehicle life, # Electricity cost, /kwh $2 / gallon gasoline $4 / gallon gasoline Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings 12

13 Electricity Use is Growing Fast By Sector k TWhr 3 By Region k TWhr 3 Transportation 2 Other Industry Heavy Industry 2 Other Other AP China 1 Commercial 1 Other AP Europe Residential US

14 Electricity Use is Growing Fast By Sector k TWhr 3 By Generation k TWhr 3 Transportation 2 Other Industry Heavy Industry 2 Gas Coal 1 Commercial 1 Oil Nuclear 4% Residential Renewables

15 Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup Cents/kWhr 2 15 No CO2 Cost 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar 15

16 Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup Cents/kWhr 2 15 $3 per Ton 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar 16

17 Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup Cents/kWhr 2 15 $6 per Ton 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar 17

18 Global Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Res/Comm 6 5 Wind, Solar, Biofuels Hydro, Geo Biomass Nuclear 4 Industrial 4 Coal 3 Transportation 3 Gas Power Generation 1 Oil

19 Global Energy Demand and Supply Demand and Supply Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD 2.8% % 1.8% 16 OECD 1.5% 2.3% Non OECD 22% 2.2% 96% 9.6% Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels Total Energy Growth Energy Savings 19

20 Global Liquids Supply Grows Global Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE OPEC Crude ~27 Liquids Demand ~28 ~34 Biofuels Other Petroleum Canada Oil Sands ~37 OPEC Non-OPEC 25 Supplies Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate Base/Adds 2

21 Gas Supply and Demand Balance United States BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD Pipeline LNG Imports 6 6 Unconventional Conventional LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas 21

22 CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 4 Emissions per Capita Tons / Person Emissions per GDP Tons / 25$ k GDP Non OECD OECD OECD Non OECD OECD Non OECD 22

23 OECD Transitions to Lower Emissions Change in CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 3 Energy per GDP MBTU / 25$ k GDP 12 Reducing CO 2 Content t Incre easing Efficie ncy CO 2 Content (Tons CO 2 / BBTU) 23

24 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 1% Canals 75% Railways & Steamships 5% 25% Coal Mining Wood & Coal Heating Telegraph % Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy Information Agency 24

25 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 1% Personal Vehicles 75% Rail Freight 5% Electrification 25% Oil Prod & Refining Telephone % Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy Information Agency 25

26 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 1% Passenger Flights 75% Road Freight 5% Air Conditioning 25% Natural Gas in Homes Nuclear Power % Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy Information Agency 26

27 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 1% Hybrid Vehicle 75% Deepwater &Arctic 5% Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wind 25% Cell Phones & PCs % Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy Information Agency 27

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29 Integrated Energy Solutions 6.7 billion people Now Increase 23 Efficiency 8 billion people Global economic linkages Disparate living standards Enormous energy needs Environmental gains & concerns Growing technology use & focus Expand Supply Mitigate Emission s Non OECD leads economic growth Less poverty; living standards improve Global energy needs up one-third Progress on environmental goals Significant advances in technology 29

30 Integrated Energy Solutions Increase Efficiency Technology Mitigate Emissions Expand Supply 3

31 ExxonMobil: improving efficiency Lithium-ion battery technology Innovative film separator could help put more fuel-efficient hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles on the road Advanced synthetic lubricants Mobil 1 AFE can improve fuel economy by up to 2 percent [1] versus most commonly used motor oils Cogeneration Process used at about 1 plants [2] worldwide to capture and use heat generates electric power up to 5% more efficiently than local utilities [1] Actual savings are dependent upon vehicle/engine type, outside temperature, driving conditions, and current engine oil viscosity. [2] In which ExxonMobil has interests. 31

32 ExxonMobil: expanding supplies Directional drilling Record-setting horizontal wells stretching 7+ miles enable us to produce more oil with less environmental impact Unconventional and liquefied natural gas Multi-Zone Stimulation Technology TM, allows us to produce tight gas ; large-scale Q-Max tankers allow us to safely and efficiently deliver natural gas to markets worldwide. Algae biofuels ExxonMobil is investing up to $6 million to develop oils that are compatible with existing transportation technology and infrastructure from photosynthetic, CO 2 -consuming algae 32

33 ExxonMobil: reducing emissions Natural gas ExxonMobil is a global leader in production of natural gas, electricity from natural gas emits up to 6 percent less CO 2 than coal Controlled Freeze Zone This technology, which reduces the cost and complexity of separating CO 2 from produced natural gas, could help carbon capture and storage systems reduce GHG Carbon capture and storage As a leader in CCS, ExxonMobil has captured up to 4 million metric tons of CO 2 per year in Wyoming, and partnered to store 1 million metric tons in the North Sea. 33

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