Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

Transcription

1 JRC Annual Event on the Scientific Support to the Danube Strategy Water workshop Ulm, October 2015 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Dr. János Fehér Hon. Associate Professor

2 Prologue The JRC Danube River Basin model is operational There are needs for i) qualitative discussion of the different scenarios of water allocation and pressures on water; and ii) qualitative discussion of environmental and socioeconomic consequences of the scenarios. This presentation briefly discusses the - natural drivers and states / impacts - social drivers and some impacts - competition for water, opportunities and threats 2/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

3 A recent EEA study states: - In average the available water resources of the European countries exceeds about 8 times the abstracted amount. - 44% of the abstraction in EU is for energy production (though decreased by 40% during the last 15 years) - 24% is for agriculture - 21 % is for public water supply, and - 11 % is for industrial purposes. - However, the balance between demand and availability has reached a critical level in many areas of Europe (over-abstraction, prolonged periods of low rainfall or drought) 3/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Source: EEA Report No 2/2009 Water resources across Europe confronting water scarcity and drought

4 Renewable water resources and withdrawals in the Danube countries Year 2014 Total internal renewable water resources per capita (m 3 /inhab/year) % of internal renewable water resources in total Total renewable water resources per capita (m3/inhab/year) Total water withdrawal per capita (m3/inhab/year) Freshwater withdrawal as % of total renewable water resources (%) 4/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Population (1000 inhab) Austria Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Rep Germany Hungary Montenegro No data N/A No data 259 N/A 622 Rep. of Moldova Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Source: FAO Aquastat database

5 Natural drivers 5/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

6 Trend in annual maximum (green) and minimum (orange) of Palmer droughts-index in in Debrecen, Hungary 6/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Source: Szalai, 2011

7 Changes in dates of first ice formation and final disappearance on the Danube River, at Nagymaros, Hungary 7/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Source: Takács, 2011

8 Water temperature trend of the Danube in Vienna, Austria Water temperature trend of the Danube in Hungary Water temperature trend of the Tisza in Hungary Source: Lovász (2012) 8/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

9 Primary challenges in the Danube River Basin Danube River Basin Management Plan 2009 and Update Draft 2015 Nutrient, organic and hazardous substance pollution in surface and groundwater Hydromorphological alterations (interruptions, morph. alt., disconnected wetlands, hydr. alterations) Integration issues (flood risk management, hydropower, navigation, agriculture) Mitigation of impacts of climate change Flood risks prevention 9/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

10 TN emission TP emission 10/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Source: ICPDR Draft DRBMP Update 2015

11 2011/ Vision 11/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

12 12/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

13 2011/ Issues to be considered in modelling What technology would be realistic and affordable? Is there enough financial resources in the countries in concern? What would be the environmental impacts? - Concentrated loads to recipients (small rivers?) - Increased nutrient concentrations How the tariffs will change? - How the water use will change? - What would it result in? Vision 13/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

14 Water tariffs and inflation in Hungary ( ) Tariff [m 3 ] Inflation Water consumption per capita in Hungary ( ) [m 3 ] Water tariff blue bar Inflation red line Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office 14/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

15 Primary challenges in the Danube River Basin Hydromorphological alterations Reporting on water abstraction impacts was not consistent in the 1st national RBMPs 15/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

16 Primary challenges in the Danube River Basin Hydromorphological alterations Hydropower plants 16/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

17 Primary challenges in the Danube River Basin Flood risks prevention 17/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

18 Predicted long term climate change in Europe Source: EEA Techn. Report 12/ /27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

19 Maximum number of consecutive dry days 19/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

20 Climate change impacts on water resources and demands Increasing Decreasing 1 Public water use / peak usage Water resources for other users 2 Cooling water demand Surface water resources 3 Irrigation water demand Water quality 4 Level of utilization/exploitation and conflict Hydrological conditions of storage 5 Illegal water intake Groundwater resources 6 Demand for bank-filtered water resources 7 Importance of water storage 8 Flood risks Area where irrigation is applicable 9 Drought and scarcity Renewable water resources 20/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

21 Climate change impacts on river flow regime Increasing Decreasing 1 Evaporation / evapotranspiration Run-off 2 Duration of low flow period Infiltration 3 Number of temporary rivers / creeks Time period of ice cover 4 Depression of groundwater level 5 Seasonal water level fluctuation 6 More frequent high / extreme floods 21/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

22 Lake Balaton Balatonfenyves - 10 August 2010 at 111 cm Balatonfenyves - 11 October 2012 at 39 cm 22/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats Source: Balatontipp.hu

23 Primary challenges in the Danube River Basin Hydromorphological alterations Hydropower plants Issues to be considered in modelling Hydropower development is significant and important natural potential for the developing economies of the Western Balkan region of the Danube Basin. What hydropower developments would result in sustainable water use and environmentally sound solutions? Some of the countries consider to develop large hydropower plants on the Danube and its large tributaries. How these potential new plans would alter the flow regime of these rivers and what option would result in sustainable water use and environmentally sound solution? 23/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

24 Primary challenges in the Danube River Basin Flood risks prevention Issues to be considered in modelling What operation strategies of existing and/or planned future reservoirs could reduce best the flood risks (local and transboundary) in the Danube Basin? How the planned hydropower plans would impact flow regime and flood risks? 24/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

25 Climate change impacts on sectors Agriculture Increased of drought and scarcity risks. Increased vegetation period. Paper and pulp industry Extreme floods impacts the production Forestry Extreme climate variability endanger some pine species Inland navigation Extended low flow periods Mitigation measures to be considered in modelling New water saving cultivation methods New, more drought resistant plants to be grown Modified crop rotations Water saving irrigation technologies be applied Flood protection measures to ensure production during flood periods Modification in tree species (modified land cover, water circle) Regulated water depths in critical sections to be ensured 25/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

26 Observations There could be available water for (rational) demands in longer term (see slide 4) Thank you No major water restrictions were reported so far, even during most drought affected years (reporting??) for your attention National and transboundary regulations are needed to handle restrictions (priority settings and enforcement??) 26/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats

27 Thank you for your attention 27/27 Hydro-economic scenarios for the Danube: competition for water, opportunities and threats