Renewable Energy Policy: China Update

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Policy: China Update Doug Ogden The Energy Foundation 中国可持续能源项目 T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m

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3 The China/India Challenge Projected Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Base Case and High Economic Growth Million Metric Tons CO2 10,000 9,000 8,000 United States 7,000 6,000 5,000 China 4,000 3,000 2,000 India 1, Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2004

4 China: Coal Dependence Carbon Emissions from Coal Use Million metric tons China consumes 80% more coal per year than the U.S., and rising. Source: EIA 2004

5 China: Growing Oil Dependence By 2020, China will import 80%of its oil 16 Oil Use in China Million barrels per day (mbd) Source: EIA 2004

6 Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Potential Efficiency Fossil 20 Renewable 0 Energy

7 Role of Government Address failure of markets to recognize public impacts of technologies Intervene to penalize externalities, incentivize beneficial technologies Commercialization policies: guarantee volume, catalyze learning curve

8 Solutions: Sector Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies Transportation Buildings and Appliances Industry Electric Utilities Regulatory Policy Renewable Energy

9 Transportation Fuel Economy (mpg) Standards Vehicle Emissions Standards Regulate CO 2 Cleaner Fuels (lead, sulfur) Alternative Fuels Advanced Vehicle Technologies Hybrid Electric, Fuel Cell R&D Minimum Market Share (ZEV Mandate) Bus Rapid Transit Systems

10 Fuel Economy Standard Carbon Savings in Vehicle Fleet million tonnes carbon Passenger Vehicles: MtC Other Vehicles: 73.1 MtC Total Savings in 2030: MtC 960 million barrels

11 Buildings & Appliances Appliance Standards & Labeling Lighting Refrigerators Air Conditioners Washers TVs Water Heaters Power Supplies Building Energy Codes Severe Cold Cold Severe Cold Cold Moderate Beijin g Cold Chengdu Wuhan Chongqing Hot Summer Cold Winter Hot Summer Warm Winter Severe Cold Nanjing Shanghai

12 Appliance Efficiency TWh Impact of China's appliance standards a labeling program: efficiency standards and labels for 4 appliances save 9% of all rsidential electricity in 2010 savings from clothes washer and TV standards and labels savings from refrigerator and AC standards and labels thousands of tons Estimated Carbon Savings from Appliance Standards and Labels Cumulative savings after 10 years Air Conditioners 2 (S) Washing Machine (S) Fluorescent Lamps (S) DVD (L) Copier (L) Fax (L) Monitors (L) Computers (L) Printers (L) Televisions (S&L) 200 net residential electricity consumption Annual savings in 10 years

13 Industry Equipment Standards Motors, pumps, fans, etc. Energy Efficiency Agreements Carbon-intensive sectors (steel, cement, pulp & paper, petrochemicals)

14 Electric Power Utility Regulatory Reform Pricing policies; wires charges Demand-Side Management; Integrated Resource Planning

15 Clean Energy Solutions Gigatons coal equivalent Business as Usual Low-Carbon Path Buildings Efficiency Industrial Efficiency Vehicle Efficiency Renewables & Gas Source: LBNL

16 Renewable Energy Goal: Encourage bulk purchases, to drive down costs and speed commercialization. Mandatory Market Share Public Benefits Funds Wind Concessions Distributed Generation

17 RE Commercialization Policies Indirect Policies for Guaranteeing a RE Market Feed-in tariffs Mandatory market share/ renewable portfolio standard (quota) Government auctions/resource concessions Wires charges Tax incentives/production tax credits Green pricing See Joanna Lewis & Ryan Wiser, Policies to Promote Wind Industry Development, LBNL, 2005

18 RE Commercialization Policies Direct Policies for Localizing RE Manufacturing Local content requirements Incentives for local content Favorable customs duties Tax incentives Certification & testing programs Research Development & Demonstration See Joanna Lewis & Ryan Wiser, Policies to Promote Wind Industry Development, LBNL, 2005

19 China s s Current Wind Capacity J. Lewis & R. Wiser, LBNL, 2005

20 Renewable Energy Law National People s Congress Schedule August 03: NPC tasked NDRC & Tsinghua University; 2 versions Broad stakeholder process June-Dec. 04: NPC consolidated Dec. 04: First reading by NPC April-May 05: Second reading Adoption: 2 nd half 05(?)

21 Renewable Energy Law National Mandatory Market Share Targets 2010: 5% of primary energy to be RE, including 60 GW RE electricity 2020: 10% primary energy to be RE, including 120 GW RE electricity Includes bulk power, off-grid RE, and bio-fuels

22 Renewable Energy Law Bulk Power Feed-in tariff (compulsory purchase by utilities of all output) Government tendering policy Mandate for large generators (MMS) Voluntary market permissible Costs spread among all consumers

23 Renewable Energy Law Economic Incentives National RE Public Benefits Fund Soft loans Tax benefits, including VAT Enforcement Fines to exceed cost of compliance

24 Renewable Energy Law 120 GW of renewable electricity by 2020 : 79 GW small hydro 20 GW wind 20 GW biomass 1 GW solar PV

25 RE Law: Wind Growth Installed MW Cost (cents/kwh)

26 Wind Concession Projects MW Xinjiang 200 MW Gansu 100 MW Ningxia 400 MW Inner Mongolia 400 MW Hebei 350 MW Jiangsu 400 MW Jilin 100 MW Liaoning 200 MW Shandong 200 MW Shanghai 400 MW Fujian Total Increase: 3570 MW 100 MW Guangxi 500 MW Guangdong 100 MW Jiangxi

27 Wind Concession Challenges High (70%) local content requirement Local manufacturing capacity insufficient Resource assessment not sufficient for siting Long approval process; high transaction costs Risk: Investment chilling effect possible if first projects fail

28 Kyoto Protocol: Developing Country Participation Common but Differentiated Responsibilities OECD New and Additional Financial Resources Clean Development Mechanism: Needs institutional support Needed: In-Country Policy and Capacitybuilding Assistance

29 Further Information: efchina.org ef.org 中国可持续能源项目 T h e C h i n a S u s t a i n a b l e E n e r g y P r o g r a m