Global offshore wind market report Jon Dugstad, Director Wind & Solar

Transcription

1 Global offshore wind market report 218 Jon Dugstad, Director Wind & Solar

2 Offshore wind - a fast growing industry

3 Offshore expertise applied

4 Likely contribution to LCOE - Europe Source: BVG Associates Transmission, 4% Array cable, 2% Foundation, 4% Turbine, 4% Other OPEX, 3% Transmission OPEX, 5% Unplanned service, 9% Planned maintenance, 7% Transmission, 1% Project development, 3% Rotor, 9% Drivetrain, 6% Electical systems, 1% Auxillary systems, 3% Foundation, 14% Assembly, 1% Tow er, 4% Array cable, 2%

5 Market reports & industry opportunity mapping

6 Annual installed capacity (GW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) Annual Market Report forecast 12 Source: BVG Associates 19% 8 Globally Installed capacity by 223: 61.3GW - from 18,5 end % growth annually - up from 16% to Europe Installed capacity by 223: 35.2GW 3 2 Annual growth expectations doubled since 217 report '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 Asia Installed capacity by 223: 23.9GW Europe Asia North America Cumulative North America BVG Associates 218 Installed capacity by 223: 2.1GW

7 Expenditure ( million) A 16 bn market over the 5 years to 223 5, Source: BVG Associates 4, 3, 2, Up from 18 for the period from 218 to 222 as reported in the 217 report 1, '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 Annual average spend of 3 bn to reach 38 bn in 223 Project development Foundation Transmission Foundation installation Transmission installation Turbine Array cable Turbine installation Array cable installation OMS

8 ..outlook to 23 Source: BVG Associates / GWEC Global Wind 217 Report

9 By 23 the market will be truly global Strong growth in established and new offshore wind power markets Installed capacity, GW +1.3 GW 11% GW 18% GW GW 33% % Americas Asia Pacific Europe Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 1H 218 offshore wind market outlook # GW addition/year % CAGR

10 Trends European developers share of installed capacity LCOE focus Auctions Others Ørsted Merchant market E.ON Size of turbine Globalisation supply chain OPEX PKA Sumitomo Statkraft Masdar Equinor SSE Ocean Breeze Energy Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy Iberdrola Innogy Vattenfall Macquarie Capital Northland Power Stadtwerke München

11 Annual installed capacity (GW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) The European market forecast to Source: BVG Associates 11% Europe leads globally Europe s forecast shows 19.2 GW of total installed capacity in 218, reaching 35.2 GW by 223, with a CAGR of 11% 2 1 '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 BE FR NL Other Euro pe DK DE UK Cumulative 2 1 The UK and the Netherlands are likely to contribute the most installed capacity by 223, with 37% and 2% respectively

12 Annual installed capacity (MW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) The European markets - UK 2 15 Source: BVG Associates 1% 2 15 Capex & Opex bn bn 71 % DEVEX and CAPEX. 29 % OPEX '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 Year of first turbine installation Annual Cumulative 5 Main Players Ørsted Vattenfall SSE Scottish Power Renewables INNOGY Equinor Siemens Gamesa MHI Vestas MPI Offshore

13 Annual installed capacity (MW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) The European markets - Germany Source: BVG Associates 2% Capex & Opex Expenditure bn bn 8 58% DEVEX and CAPEX 42% OPEX. 6 '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 Year of first turbine installation 4 Main Players Orsted EnBW Northland Power E.ON Ibedrola WPD Innogy Vattenfall Annual Cumulative

14 Annual installed capacity (GW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) The Asian Market 6 4 Source: BVG Associates and Renewable Energy Solutions 36% 3 2 Capex & Opex Multicontracting preferred by developers to gain experience, developers tend to contract a greater number of individual contracts Government involvement in projects coupled with support from major local conglomerates 2 '19 '2 CN '21 '22 JP '23 KO TW Other Asia Cumulative 1 Main Players China Longyuan (China Guodian Group) CGN Group SPIC China Huaneng Group CNOOC Goldwind Dongfang Electric Corporation Jiangsu Hangtong Ship Heavy Industry Ming Yang

15 Annual installed capacity (GW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) The North American Market Source: BVG Associates and Renewable Resources International 16% Capex & Opex Ørsted and Equinor etc are likely to multicontract with mature, global suppliers, which may collaborate with North American partners EPCI contracting is likely to be preferred by less experienced US developers '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 US Canada Cumulative Main Players Orsted Dominion Energy Massachusetts Clean Energy Centre Deepwater Wind Equinor Avangrid Renewables US Wind CiP GE

16 Emerging Markets Estonia Finland Ireland Poland Plan to install up to 5MW of offshore wind capacity by 218 No offshore wind installed capacity so reaching this target is unlikely. Additional project of 1 1MW expected to be commissioned in demonstration projects, total capacity of 32MW. 2 GW of planned offshore wind capacity. Approval of Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) in July 218 Renewable energy auctions will be held annually from with auction capacities ranging from 1 GW to 4 GW. The total auction budget is PLN 87 6 million (EUR 2 3 million), of which offshore wind farms will be eligible for up PLN 45 per MWh (EUR 121 per MWh). No offshore wind farms operating or under construction however, the market is likely to grow to 2 GW by 23. Australia Canada India Australia's Clean Energy Innovation Fund was established in 215 to provide AUD $1 billion to support offshore technologies (including offshore wind) Canada has no installed offshore wind capacity. In 216 the government of Ontario, announced it is to keep a moratorium on offshore wind projects until potential environmental impacts are fully understood India has the world s fourth largest onshore wind market (33 GW of installed capacity). The government targets for offshore wind are 5 GW by 222 and 3 GW by 23. Vietnam Vietnam has almost 1 MW of capacity installed in the Bac Lieu offshore wind farm, installed in phases between 213 and MW is currently under construction with potential for an additional 2 MW to be development at that site

17 A brief status floating wind In 217, the world's largest floating foundation project (Hywind Scotland), was installed. A second floating demonstration in Scottish waters, Kincardine, is completing the first part of its installation in second half of 218. Four floating demonstration projects in France received consent (Golfe du Lion, Groix & Belle-Île, Grussian and Provence Grand Large) with construction beginning from 22. Principle Power and Aker Solutions is in the early stages of planning their 15 MW project off the West Coast of the US. They have stated that this is a pre-commercial project. Equinor planning to electrify parts of Tampen O&G field by use of Hywind FWT There are currently no commercial floating projects in development Principle Power reports start of construction for WindPlus 25 MW WindFloat Atlantic approximately 2 km offshore Viana do Castelo in Northern Portugal

18 Adding value to offshore wind! Jon Dugstad Director Wind & Solar