Key challenges for the Offshore Renewables Industry ORE Supergen

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1 Renewable Energy Consulting Key challenges for the Offshore Renewables Industry ORE Supergen University of Plymouth November 2017 Andrew Garrad 1

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3 Energy is political! Everywhere Source Regen SW

4 Why renewables? What are we trying to do? Create jobs Reduce future cost volatility Improve security of supply Develop business with a future Mitigate climate change 4

5 How far have we got? UK produced 25% of its electricity from renewables last year!

6 Hinkley UK September 2017 bids

7 September Nuclear plans 'should be rethought after fall in offshore windfarm costs' Lib Dems and green groups say reduced price of state support should sound death knell for plants such as Hinkley Point C

8 October Global atmospheric CO2 levels hit record high UN warns that drastic action is needed to meet climate targets set in the Paris agreement

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10 We are at a turning point 2015 was the last year that we operated the system in the way it has operated for the past 50 years. The way that we are operating now is fundamentally different. John Pettigrew CEO National Grid

11 We need an energy miracle Bill Gates, February 2016

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13 We are not addressing this today but

14 is this part of the scope?!

15 Investment context

16 Clean energy investment rose while oil plummeted Global clean energy total investment and oil price $146/ barrel Record investment $274bn $318bn $297bn $272bn $316bn $329bn $206bn $207bn $175bn $48/barrel $128bn $62bn $88bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

17 Resource

18 Resource - Tidal Global tidal range Tidal stream areas Resource concentrated in relatively small discrete areas (global resource predictions vary due problem with a top down approach) Tidal range: ~7,000 Tw / year (IEA OES) Tidal stream: 12GW in Europe (CA OE,), 1TW worldwide (CA OE), 800+TWh/yr(IEA OES) Variable but regular and predictable energy source

19 Resource - Wave Widely distributed although best resource around 30 and 60 degrees latitude both north and south (Northern Europe, USA/Canada, South Australia, NZ Variable but forecastable energy source (3 to 5 day accurate swell predictions) Resource in N Europe ~ 300GW (CA OE) 2TW worldwide [Thorpe 1999] 29,500 TWh/year IEA OES Fusion

20 Resource - Wind 8 off 100 x 100 km wind farms = ALL of EU s electricity demand

21 Integration is! Or is it? More than 15% of energy used crosses one or more borders Can there be an electrical Brexit? Source: Kema 21

22 Technology

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24 But what do we do at the end of its life? Quite a big blade

25 World s first floating wind farm is in Scotland A new frontier and good territory for Supergen

26 Source National Geographic 1976

27 Vestas multi-rotor 4 x V29 installed

28 Windmills have been around for millennia

29 so have tide mills

30 Marine renewables technology status Wind turbines 30 years ago

31 There is a lot to learn from the wind industry preferably without being patronised!

32 WEGA The growth of commercial turbines. and the macho machines Will it continue? Where are marine renewables? 124m Science USDK 15m US UK 20m NL DE US 50 MW? 40m 50m Does it need to take this long? Global installed capacity 2000 MW MW Survival is success Low cost reliable energy is success

33 Size? Complexity? Important bifurcations Time

34 Offshore wind energy A complex mix of risk and opportunity But how much is suitable for Supergen? Wind energy uncertainty Constructability 3,6 MW 5+ MW Turbine technology Offshore Logistics installation Turbine foundations Subsea cables Grid Connection/integration Offshore access Marine conditions Regulatory regime 34

35 The climate The weather General environmental inputs Offshore wind Uniform predictions and measurements at every stage with lots of data Flow modification topography bathymetry Specific environmental inputs Admittance Aerodynamics Hydrodynamics Device Control Device structural and electro-dynamics Fixed Floating dynamics Wakes/Array Effects Array Control

36 The climate The weather General environmental inputs Tidal Uniform predictions and measurements at every stage with lots of data Flow modification topography bathymetry Specific environmental inputs Admittance Aerodynamics Hydrodynamics Device Control Wakes/Array Effects Array Control Device structural and electro-dynamics Fixed Floating dynamics

37 The climate The weather General environmental inputs Flow modification topography bathymetry Wave Uniform predictions and measurements at every stage with lots of data Specific environmental inputs Admittance Aerodynamics Hydrodynamics Device Control Device structural and electro-dynamics Fixed Floating dynamics Wakes/Array Effects Array Control

38 All three Structural output Array Grid Mechanical output Loads Medium voltage grid Extremes Fatigue Material properties New materials, Recycling ` High voltage grid Uniform predictions and measurements at every stage with lots of data Soil properties Corrosion Standards, certification regulation

39 Mathematical models and their valdation

40 Concluding remarks The three disciplines are at radically different stages Your financial resources are very small compared to the wind industry - think carefully about what you can add Wind Industry models are already very sophisticated The resource is vast don t spend too much time trying to find it but it needs careful quantification locally modelling and validation will be the key to success For wave and tidal now survival is success! Learn from wind:wave and tidal are different but there are marked similarities Look to the long term material properties, new materials, recycling Analysis but not collection of data encourage its collection Plenty of fluid mechanics These are all fatigue machines Storage Grid integration is a common and vital issue Do your bit to promote confidence in the industry and communicate successes