Tackling Energy Security in Europe: the Role of the Electricity Sector

Transcription

1 Tackling Energy Security in Europe: the Role of the Electricity Sector Uwe Remme, Markus Blesl Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) University of Stuttgart IAEE 28 June 18-2, Istanbul 1

2 Overview Motivation and scope of analysis Modeling framework Scenario analysis i. Scenario definition ii. Assumptions iii. Results Conclusions Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 2

3 Aspects of supply security for Western European electricity sector Electricity sector largest consumer of energy imports after transport Areas of supply security in the electricity sector: i. Upstream: fuel side ii. Downstream: reliability in the electricity system Factors on the fuel side: i. Domestic resource situation ii. iii. iv. Share of imported energy carriers Mix of supply countries Transit of energy imports Options in power generation to improve security of supply i. Efficiency improvements (e.g. CHP) ii. iii. Use of indigenous fossil energy carriers Use of non-fossil energy carriers Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 3

4 TPES Supply (Western Europe) 6, 55, Western Europe indigenous production USA 5, Other Asia 45, 45 Mexico Primary energy [PJ] 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Import dependency [%] Middle East FSU Eastern Europe Central&South America Canada 1, Australia 5, 5 Africa -5, Data: IEA -5 Import dependency fossil fuels Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 4

5 Hard coal supply (Western Europe) 1, 1 Hard coal imports/exports; Domestic production [PJ] 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Import dependency [%] WEU Domestic Production USA Other Asia Mexico FSU Eastern Europe Central&South America China Canada Australia Africa Import dependency Data: IEA Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 5

6 Resource situation in Western Europe Energy carrier Reserves (end 25) Resources (end 25) Production 25 [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] Hard coal Lignite Natural gas Conventional Unconventional 2466 Oil Conventional Unconventional 214 Data: BGR, WEC Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 6

7 Electricity Generation (Western Europe) 3,5 35 Others Gross Electricity Generation [GWh] 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE Dependency on fossil fuel imports [%] Data: IEA Waste Biomass, renew waste Solar/PV Geothermal Wind Nuclear Oil Natural gas Lignite Hard Coal Hydro Share of electricity generation depending on fossil imports

8 Analysis framework: TIAM Model TIMES Integrated Analysis Model Based on TIMES model generator: i. Developed by ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) ii. Dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with inter-temporal objective function (perfect foresight) minimizing total discounted system costs iii. Technologically detailed bottom-up model for each region iv. Covering energy flows from the useful energy demand over end-use sectors and conversion sector to the primary supply Time horizon world regions with i. Bilateral trade in hard coal, pipeline gas, LNG, crude oil, petroleum products (distillates, gasoline, heavy fuel oil and naphtha) and bioethanol ii. Global trade in emission permits possible Emissions: CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 i. Carbon capture and sequestration (power generation and alternative fuel production) ii. Mitigation options for N 2 O and CH 4 Climate module (3-reservoir model for calculating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations) Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 8

9 Model regions CAN FSU WEU EEU USA MEA CHI SKO JPN MEX IND AFR ODA CSA AUS 15 World regions: CAN, USA, MEX, CSA (Central South America), WEU (Western Europe), EEU (Eastern Europe), MEA (Middle East), FSU (Former Soviet Union), CHI, IND, SKO (South Korea), JPN, ODA (Other Developing Asia), AUS (Australia+New Zealand) Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 9

10 Scenario definition BASE scenario: no explicit security of supply or climate protection policies Security of supply scenarios: i. SQ5: Reducing share of coal, natural gas and petroleum imports in consumption to 5% for each fuel by 25 Limiting market share of a single importer to 25% of total imports by 25 ii. TQ5: As SQ5, but reducing combined share of coal, natual gas and petroleum imports to 5% by 25 Variants: i. CO2 reduction scenarios: 1. CO2: Reduction scenario yielding same CO2 emissions levels as in SQ5 2. CO2-NOCCS: excluding CCS ii. SQ5-NUC: 5% higher nuclear generation in 25 compared to SQ5 iii. OG5: import quotas for oil and gas, but not for coal Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 1

11 Scenario assumptions Population [million] WEU World GDP growth [%] WEU 2.% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% World 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% Import prices for Western Europe Nuclear policy: Hard coal Natural gas Crude oil $25/GJ $25/GJ $25/boe Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE i. Replacement and expansion only in countries that already use nuclear today ii. Phase-out in DE, SE, BE, ES, NL

12 TPES in BASE scenario (Western Europe) 9, 9 8, 8 Total primary energy supply [PJ] 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Fossil import dependency [%] Other Biofuel import Biomass, waste Nuclear import Natural gas import Natural gas Domestic Oil import Oil Domestic Lignite Domestic Coal import Coal Domestic Hydro, wind, PV Fossil import dependency 1, Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 12

13 Electricity generation in BASE scenario 4,5 45 4, 4 Net electricity generation [TWh] 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Import dependency on fossil fuels [%] Others Solar Wind Natural gas Oil Coal Nuclear Hydro Imp. Dep. on fossil fuels Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 13

14 Total primary energy supply 9, 8, TPES total Domestic TPES Final energy Primary energy/final energy [PJ] 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Bioethanol FT Biomass Biomass Electricity District heat FT Fossil Hydro, wind, PV Nuclear Natural gas Oil Lignite Coal BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 14

15 Electricity Generation 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Net electricity generation [TWh] Imported fuel for electricity generation [PJ] BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 2, 17,5 15, 12,5 1, 7,5 5, 2,5 Others Solar Wind Natural gas Oil Coal Nuclear Hydro Frozen efficiency as in 25 13% CHP 2 % 25 % 23 % 23 % 33 % 28 % 39 % efficiency 49 % 5 % 5 % 56 % 57 % 55 % 39 % Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 15

16 Net energy imports and import dependency 5, 1 45, Electricity, district heat 9 Fossil fuel imports by use [PJ] 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Conversion Final energy Import dependency [%] Bio Fuel Natural Gas Oil Coal 5, 1 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 16

17 CO 2 and cost implications CO2 Emissions [Gt CO2] BASE SQ5 TQ5 BASE SQ5 TQ5 SQ5 TQ5 SQ5 TQ Diff. annual undiscounted system costs to BASE [Bill. Euro] Transport Households, commercial, AGR Industry Conversion, production Annual cost difference Necessary tax rates for imported fossil fuels in 25: Coal: 3 /GJ (326 /t CO2) Gas: 16 /GJ (278 /t CO2) Oil: 5 /GJ (677 /t CO2) Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 17

18 Sensitivity of tax on quota level 6 5 Tax on imported fuels [$/GJ] Oil Coal Gas 1 SQ8 SQ7 SQ6 SQ5 Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 18

19 Variants 4, Imp. dep. fossil energy 1, Others Solar Net electricity generation [TWh] 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 85% 5% 78% 74% 5% 69% 87,5 75, 62,5 5, 37,5 25, Total primary energy supply [PJ] Wind Nuclear Natural gas Oil Lignite Coal Hydro Biomass Lignite Hydro, wind, photovoltaic 5 12,5 CO2 mitigation variants CO 2 price in 25: BASE SQ5 CO2 CO2-NOCCS SQ5-NUC OG5 BASE SQ5 CO2 CO2-NOCCS SQ5-NUC OG5 CO2: 165 /t CO 2 CO2-NOCCS: 18 /t CO Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 19

20 Conclusions BASE scenario without taking any explicit security of supply measures: i. Imported dependency of TPES on fossil fuels expected to increase from 55% in 25 to 85% in 25. ii. Dependency of electricity generation on fossil imports increases from 25% to 38% in the same time frame Measures to reduce import dependency (SQ5 scenario): i. End use sectors: energy efficiency, biofuels in transport -> Fossil import dependency of final energy demand reduces to 24%. ii. CO 2 emission can be halved, however, at high costs compared to pure CO 2 mitigation target. iii. Electricity generation: plant efficiencies (already in BASE), CHP, Renewables (58% in 25) -> Fossil import dependency of electricity drops to 7%. Flexibility in import quotas (TQ5): i. Reduced use of imported coal and especially natural gas in power generation to allow higher dependency on oil for transportation. Variants: i. CO 2 mitigation targets reduce fossil fuel use in power generation (if CCS is not available), but to lower degree in other sectors ii. Nuclear in combination with hydrogen can be in option to reduce oil use in transport. iii. Quotas only on oil and gas (OG5) increase coal imports being used to produce CTL fuels for transportation. Uwe Remme Tackling Energy Security IAEE 28 2