Baltic Energy for Poland questions for a good start

Transcription

1 5 questions for a good start Warsaw, 28 February 218 1

2 5 questions for a good start 1. Are new generation capacities needed in Poland? 2. What kind of energy sources Poland needs? 3. What kind of energy generation technologies fit in with Polish needs? 6. How the potential of the Baltic Sea can help build Polish energy security? 5. What structure of the energy mix in 23? 2

3 programme assumptions Question 1 Does Poland need new generation capacities? Facts about NPS* Actual demand for peak capacity: Summer peak 22,7 GW Winter peak 26,2 GW Forecast of growth of demand for peak capacity in % Summer peak 32,7 GW Winter peak 3,1 GW 5,6 GW will be phased out until 23, 13,9 GW JWCD until 23 (BAT modernisation scenario) Forecast shortfall of overcapacity, impossible to compensate by the operator can occur from 223 (1 GW) and in 235 may reach 13 GW Vital increase in installed capacity 6,5 GW by 23 and 15,8 GW by 235 *based on Prognosis of peak demand for power in PSE Operator Difference between power demand and installed capacity Różnica między zapotrzebowaniem na moc osiągalną i prognozą mocy w systemie Wg FNEZ - FNEZ 44,2 43,5 42,9 42,3 41,6 41, 4,4 39,4 38,4 36,8 37,3 36,4 37, 37,5 38,1 38,6 39,2 39,8 38,4 37,4 37,4 37,7 43,6 39,8 39,7 4,9 35,2 35, 34,8 35,2 35,8 36,4 36,9 36,7 7,5 33,8 33,8 6,6 6, 6,2 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,6 4,2 3,4 1,1,6 -,1 -,6 Difference Available power -2,7-3,4-3,4 Power in the system ,8 8,9 36,

4 /tco2 programme assumptions Question 2 What kind of energy sources Poland needs? Preferred features They can be put into service in the years Ensure security of supply up to 26 National sources Inexhaustible or renewable sources Sources with a diversified and reliable delivery Will be competitively priced nuclear power Average construction time hydropower plant coal power station gas power station offshore wind farm EU Climate Policy CO2 emission price growth Growth trend of emission fees CO They will allow to meet emissions reduction goals Will allow the fulfilment of the objectives on the use of RES increasing cost of energy production from conventional sources Their use will positively affect the development of the national economy Their use will not cause significant social and environmental conflicts greater competitiveness and profitability of investments in nonemission sources 4

5 programme assumptions Question 3 What kind of energy generation technologies fit in with Polish needs? Preferred sources Coal Own resources Developed infrastructure Economic impact Gas Diversified sources Fast construction Low emission Flexibility Micro RES Own resources No conflicts Economic impact Emission reduction RES Onshore wind Own resources Emission reduction RES Development of 1 GW offshore wind energy Central Bank Region GW Total area - 45 km 2 Area available for WTG - 36 km 2 Density - 5 MW/km 2 Odra Bank Region GW Total area - 56km 2 Słupsk Bank Region GW Area available for WTG - 42 km 2 Total area km 2 Density - 4 W/km 2 Area available for WTG - 1 km 2 Density - 4 MW/km 2 Forecast of demand (consumption) of the domestic market for hard coal in total up to 23 [Mt] Offshore wind Own resources No conflicts Economic impact Emission reduction RES demand for 2, tons of steel 22,5 tons of coals 6-8, tons of copper 17, jobs in the construction phase and 5-1. in the operation phase 4-7 Mt reduction of CO2 emission HIGH SCENARIO REFERENCE SCENARIO LOW SCENARIO 5

6 programme assumptions Question 4 How the potential of the Baltic Sea can help build Polish energy security? Baltic Energy Diversification of gas supplies Expansion of the LNG terminal Baltic Pipe National resources Warehouses Offhore wind farms Energy potential 8 GW Economic potential of 77, jobs Offshore grid Fulfilling market integration goals Redundancy of energy export from the OWF Strengthening of the Polish Power System in northern Poland The ability to balance energy The ability to import energy at the peak 6

7 programme assumptions Question 5 What structure of the energy mix in 23? Power in the system 53% - Conventional 28% - Hard coal 13% - Brown coal 12% - Gas, 8, 6, 4, 2,, -2, -4, -6, -8, Power demand in the power system 1,8,6,,4,,7,9 1,2 1,4 1,6,,3 2, 2,4,9 4,,,2 2,8 1,5 3,1 2,3 3,2,,1 1,5,9 3,2 3,6 3,6 3,2 2,4 2,5 2,7 2, 3,2 3,2 3,2 1,1,,,,,,,,,4 -,5 -,6 -, Micro OZE rozproszone RES Offshore Elektrownie wind wiatrowe farms morskie Gaz Gas EE Import import EE Difference Różnica pomiędzy between zapotrzebowaniem power demand na moc and a installed mocą w systemie capacity 2, 47% - RES 2% - Onshore wind 13% - Offshore wind 7% - Biogas, biomass 5% - Micro RES 2% - Hydroelectricity Fuel structure EE Import import EE Micro OZE rozproszone RES Biogas, Biomasa, biomass, biogaz, PV Hydroelectricity Hydroenergetyka Onshore Lądowe farmy wind wiatrowe farms Offshore Morskie farmy wind wiatrowe farms Nuclear Energia jądrowa power GW Nuclear Energia jądrowa power GW Gaz Gas GW Brown Węgiel brunatny coal GW GW Hard Węgiel coal kamienny GW GW Power Moc w systemie in the system GW 7

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